From the guys who brought you The Greatest Short Burn of the Century..

Oh man, oh man, oh man.
Not again.
-Drizzy

Preface:
Please believe me when I say I really wanted to take this month off and enjoy the snow in Tahoe. But as I was driving, something caught my eye...
Make no mistake. This stock is not going to be nearly as volatile or profitable as GME. In fact, this might be so boring that most of you will ignore me yet again. And that’s exactly why I like it. I’ll do my best to make this engaging, but the fact is, this is going to be a slow grind. Both this DD and the stock.
Also, as a bonus, Reddit is currently public enemy #1 in the eyes of the media. Why don’t we do a quick heel-turn and join their side? Are they gonna hate us for buying boring value stocks? They won’t know what hit them. That will be a fun show to watch.
Anyway… let’s take a look under the hood. As always, not financial advice. Just education. NOTHING IS A RECOMMENDATION. We are just sharing knowledge here. Ok SEC?
Intro:
Ford (NYSE: $F -- NOT NASDAQ:$FORD), is another depressed deep value multiple expansion arbitrage play. No short squeeze this time. The GME asymmetry may not be seen again for 10 years.
It might seem boring and unsexy on the surface, but Ford is a fantastic company in the midst of one of the best turnarounds in American history. And with a little help from our friend Mr. Options (or as Buffett called, Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction) we can turn a boring old Ford into a lightning fast Ferrari using the quadruple income option wheel strategy. Don’t try this at home. If you don’t know what CSPs, CCs, or vega are, stick to shares. Those should work just fine.
Let’s break this down into 5 parts: electrification story and leadership, multiples expansion, technical analysis, options, and the trade.
By the way, in 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, which added up to $40 billion. Just something to think about.

The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round...

Electrification story and leadership:
Let’s jump into history for a second. Ford had a meteoric rise from 1997 - 1999 from $15 to around $32 at the peak. This was due to $F reporting massive earnings increases each quarter:

They were just feasting and feasting. Jim Farley looks like the best person alive to revitalize Ford, capable of tripling the stock in 2-3 years. Look at the last two quarters:

Q3-2020 - Adjusted EPS: 65 cents vs 19 cents expected, Automotive revenue: $34.71 billion vs $33.51 billion expected (due to pent up demand)
Q2-2020 - Adjusted EPS: A loss of 35 cents per share versus a loss of $1.17 per share expected, Automotive revenue: $16.6 billion versus $15.95 billion expected.

Here are excerpts from the Q3 earnings and some other notable highlights:

Farley: Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, No. 1, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses.
And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale. So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 and the Transit, the two most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them.

Quick sidebar here from my buddy M: "Whereas traditional manufact / consumer / industrials are valued on an EBITDA multiple, SAAS has historically been valued on a revenue multiple, which translates to flat out higher valuations. EVs themselves are not necessarily a higher margin product that justifies a higher multiple (at least not that I've seen), but tech services / subscriptions are the real money makers in this game. Hint Hint companies like Apple throwing everything they have at trying to integrate services and subscriptions over the last 5 years"
This further justifies the expansion multiples we expect will catch up to leading EV automakers (see below).

We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers. The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the two largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive.
Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford.
When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision two years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter.
Together, these factors, plus the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year.
As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow.
The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.

Check out this credit downgrade weeks before Ford paid off their revolving credit facility. Smells like GME?
Alright. What about Q4-2020 and beyond? Ford is expected to post a loss. TA is signaling a beat (see the TA section). Ford is spending this money in order further restructure and deliver on the following items in their pipeline:
Bronco:

Within the first month of open reservations, the Bronco had received an estimated 230,000 reservations. 230,000 reservations is an incredibly impressive figure, especially when put into the context of Ford’s total vehicle sales. 230,000 sales would represent 4% of Ford’s total sales.
Current estimates place over 20% of reservation holders as first-time Ford buyers.
The most expensive trim, the limited ‘First Edition’, has already sold out.

Mach-E vs Tesla Model Y. Just the fact that there is debate between the better car is bullish for Ford.

The upcoming 2021 F-150 has positive consumer reviews as well:

The 2021 Ford F-150 Is So Stuffed With New Tech & Gadgets That Even Tesla Owners Are Impressed!
DeMuro - The 2021 Ford F-150 Is Totally New and Really Impressive
Some other nice features: Fold down the shifter, lay seats down completely flat, speakers in headrest, tailgate worksurface (pen/pencil holders, rulers) C clamp, 120V outlet, bottle opener, light), sensing running board, tailgate step and railing, and more. Watch the video.

Ford Raptor launch (just happened today, customers are excited. Look at the comments on YouTube and IG)
Further potential tailwinds:

Ford partnering with Rivian in a $500M deal. Product yet to be released.
Google partnership that caused the intraday spike on 2/2.
Ford is rumored to secure the USPS contract since deal talks are falling through with WKHS.

The Postal Service told Trucks.com that it expects to reach a contract with one or more of the teams bidding for the business in the federal government’s second fiscal quarter of 2021. That works out to the first quarter of next year.

There is a historical inverse relationship between gas prices and car sizing. Tell me if I'm reaching here. But as America continues to head towards electrification and energy independence under Biden, larger gas cars will be more in demand. Furthermore, the aftershock of COVID will continue to propagate the dedensification of cities. Less commuter vehicles, and more travel vehicles. And look who is conveniently positioned to take advantage of all of this?
Dr. Anning Chen is also a killer CEO of Ford China. This is largely intangibles (which Wall Street cannot model), but watch his interviews here and here.
Dr. Chen used the COVID shutdown to improve the operational efficiency of the company. It has not shown on the bottom line thus far, but it will later.
CTO Dr. Ken Washington bio. Ex Lockheed.
Kennard on the board.. PE guy, on the AT&T board and former FCC chairman.
Vojvodich. Ex CRM and ADHZ.
Regarding the above leadership and BOD members, experienced executives are a better fit for running the day-to-day than any other. Add a sprinkle of savvy techfin folk and you have a recipe for a elite transition.

English please? Ford is a strong company. Farley is delivering on his promises and can lead the company towards an operationally efficient turnaround towards electrification. Combine this with a loyal customer base rivaled only by AAPL, and you get another special opportunity. This is the turning point.
Multiples Expansion:
Now here lies the crux of the thesis. Amidst all the EV hype, Ford is being unfairly ignored at an extremely depressed multiple compared to the other companies in the EV space. Here are some comparisons (numbers may be slightly outdated, pulled earlier this week, more relative comparison than absolute):
$Ticker - Market Cap - TTM Revenue MM - TTM EBITDA MM - Revenue Multiple - Ebitda Multiple
TSLA - $810B - $28B - $4B - 29X - 202X
NIO - $92B - $12B - ($7B) - 7.6X - (NaN)
GM - $78B - $116B - $18B - 0.7X - 4.3X
F - $44B - $131B - $10B - 0.3X - 4.4X
That’s an eyesore. Let’s focus on just TSLA and Ford, because why not. Assuming Ford can quickly turn towards electrification (from the evidence above), these two companies are fair comparisons. No Tesla is not a software/energy company, look at their automotive % of revenue. Stop it. It has only recently dropped to 80% due to the expansion of their leasing division. Energy is still a tiny part of TSLA.
Revenue Multiple:
TSLA = 29X
F = 0.3X
EBITDA Multiple:
TSLA = 202X
F = 4.4X
Yes those numbers are correct. Look at them for 60 seconds and tell me what you see. Quick quote from my buddy M:

Just zoom out and think. TSLA is for sure ahead of the rest on their tech and charging infra right now. But in terms of just overall bottom line infrastructure and manufacturing capability; once the GMs, Fs, and VWs of the world can get the ball rolling, they are way ahead in that aspect. Much more experience in production and retail / distribution channels, as well as logistics sourcing. Plenty of battery makers, and self driving tech makers out there too right now. Small to mid scale M&A will probably be the name of the game if I had to guess.

This is why Burry is short $TSLA, but two scenarios can unfold: either the high-flying stocks drop, or Ford rises. I believe we will land somewhere in the middle, with Ford rising as we begin to enter the optimism phase in the final third of our bull market.
Shorting is a dangerous game anyway... So I’ve been hearing on the news...
TA, Options:
Exhibit A from our resident chart whisperer J (who will remain unnamed because you monkeys keep bothering him).
Larger view.
As you can see, the trendline has broken out.
Exhibit B from our resident quant T (also to rename unnamed):

Starting on 1/4 you'll find right tail distributions into any liquidation which represent large buying. Which has led up to a recent run-up and eventually left tail distributions which represent short coverings which lead into the gaps and thinner distributions where there aren't any major bids. Even with the pullback on 1/22 we see more right tail distribution after the profit taking from the recent run-up, which means someone is buying up the inventory.
This is unusual for F, where F trades within tight ranges. On 2/1 you can see a bimodal distribution which means a new player has stepped in, which we assume has additional knowledge apart from the larger players that were already in the market. The recent range between 10.70 and 11.20 indicates that the market has accepted this price range as fair value. Without additional research at first glance we can see that a large player (or players) is buying up a significant amount of inventory.
On 1/4 we find that the volume increased to 77,559,128 from the previous trading of 34,462,454 (125% increase) and 33,127,776 the day before that. Volume has been higher since.
On our first major left tail distribution (which represents short covering) since the buying on 1/4 the volume was at 113,707,973.

Exhibit C
250k shares of F 10.92; 100k F 11.04; 3.53m F 9.78; 708k F 9.78; 500k F 9.64; 377k F 9.50; 338k F 9.50; 201k F 9.75; 192k F 9.80; 150k F 9.77
These are blocks of shares bought in the past 7 days
Top OI changes:
+19610 F 02/05/21 11 C 43821 38% 13% 48%
+12904 F 02/05/21 12 C 31929 38% 11% 52%
Top OI positions:
170902 F 02/19/21 10 C +807 26% 49% 25%
112480 F 02/19/21 12 C +3207 29% 29% 41%
The percentages are bid mid ask.
Someone is bullish on Ford.
For an earnings play, daily RSI is oversold looking towards an uptick.
Options gamma is interesting to note as well.
Open interest on 2/5 $13 and $15Cs are also notable. Could be covered calls? Could be someone knows something?
Could be Jeff reading too much into the tea leaves. Not financial advice. Just showing you what I see.
The Trade: The simplest way is just to purchase shares and collect dividends as Ford may reinstate them sometime in 2021. Possibly leaps if you feel adventurous.
For the option junkies like myself, and as a tribute to the greatest company in American history, I will use the wheel(s). The GME trade was a very special and momentous occasion. Now that we have a bankroll, we’ll just quietly play theta gang as we enjoy our lives and spend time with our families and loved ones. Here’s a good summary.
This is not for amateurs. I mean, none of this is financial advice anyway, just educational.
But in a nutshell, I will: 1) Buy shares, 2) Sell CSPs 30-45 days out with 0.3 delta, 3) sell CCs with 0.3 delta (will reconsider this if Ford goes vertical) 4) Collect dividends.
The Wheel doesn’t work on everything. Here are the qualifications from the above post, let me know if this sounds familiar:

Profitable company that has solid cash flow
Bullish, or Very Bullish, analyst ratings
Priced around $10 to $50 so that I can afford to take the assignment if needed and I stay away from sub-$10 stocks as a rule
A stable chart without wild gyrations (especially those caused by CEO tweets!)
A nice dividend is always a good thing, both that you may collect it if assigned the stock but also that dividend stocks tend to more stable and predictable.

Hmm...
Conclusion:
Ford is a massive, complex, multinational corporation so I’ve likely missed very many things, but I wanted to get this out before ER so I can flex again. (No market manipulation here lol. My buddy's multi-million dollar block buys didn't move the needle one iota.) There are many things I haven’t covered, and simply don’t know yet. As more facts begin to unfold, and as I spend more time with the stock, I’ll share the information here. Also, every time I post about an equity, it seems to go down. Lol... (GME). With all this in mind, this is still a very risky bet.
Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen thus far. Ford looks like a fantastically healthy company in the midst of a turnaround towards electrification with a phenomenally depressed multiple according to the market’s appetite. It deserves a multiple trending towards TSLA’s, not a dying auto manufacturer. Jim Farley has shown early to be a great CEO and I think he can continue the transformation. We’ve begun to enter a phase of exuberance, so I’ll choose to long Ford instead of short TSLA.
As a bonus, we have the opportunity to join forces with the boomers and talking heads and bet on one of their favorite companies. Time for America to be on the same side again. We’ve been divided for too long.
I know my GME posts were lucky. I’ll stake my reputation on another bet. One call sure is lucky. What about two? In any case, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Glad to be a part of this journey with you all. Note: I will not discuss GME in the comments, which all depends on Ryan Cohen. There is nothing further to add until Q4 earnings.
And finally, we’ve officially entered the last phase of our very long bull market. This is not necessarily a sell signal yet, as some of the greatest returns can come in this period and can last for a long time. I will do my best to look for the signal and sound the alarm. The world will be celebrating, and I will be bearish. Burry’s passive indexing bubble call in combination with Thiel’s government debt bubble call will lead us into a dark time of unprecedented proportions. Tail risk hedging won’t work as the declines will be slow at first, and then fast and violent and unrecoverable. Be careful. Listen to Ken Fisher. Thank you very much for your time.
Positions: Bullish shares, LEAPS, on-going quadruple income wheel strategy as Ford reinstates the dividend. Timeframe 12-18 months. Watch out VIGILANTLY for macro risks. Bear market is on the horizon. Drop some Fs in the chat to pay respects.
PT: $32 with a chance of $98 if we start to see exuberance in the broader market.
-JA

GME Tribe: A Story About How Ryan Cohen is About to Kick Down Sherman's Door and Drink His Milkshake 🚀🚀🚀

Come gather ‘round GME management wherever you roam. And admit that the waters around you have grown and accept it that soon you’ll be drenched to the bone. If your time to you is worth saving, then you better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone, for the times they are a-changin’.
Story time for the GME crew. All those who are certain tHis iS bLoCkBusTer or the paper hands that sold yesterday can just keep scrolling. We wish you the best of luck in the best of all possible worlds: this one, dear Pangloss.
**I’ve tried to submit this three times now and the moderators keep rejecting it. Maybe because I use too many naughty words? I guess I’ll try to clean that up a bit, which runs counter to all my instincts.
Did we have a good day Wednesday after that Q3 call? No, we did not. Do you know who lost over $20M (at least on paper) yesterday? Mr. Ryan Cohen. How do you think he felt about that CC and that inexplicable shelf registration that is, as one stocktwits commentator put it, a “poor man’s poison pill” and as obvious of a FU to Cohen and shareholders that the Board could have possibly designed? Do you think he was happy to see that?
I think he was thrilled to see it.
And now I’m going to tell you why.
This is a long post, so I’m going to give the TL/DR sum up for you Paste Eating Rocket Kids, and this will serve as a warning that there are, in fact, a lot of words that you may choose to read or not. So if I still see one goddamn comment about this being a lot of words and where’s the rockets maaaaan, I might just transport myself through this internet connection and [removed to satisfy the delicate sensibilities of the robot moderators].
So here’s the TL/DR: I believe that Cohen is executing a plan to take out the GME Board. And I think that Sherman just walked right into Cohen’s trap because he’s a dumb, selfish Boomer with a huge ego and a Broken Brain. And Cohen is going to be a legend because of it after he executes this plan, triggers the MOASS, and takes control of GME to convert it to a tech-first gaming juggernaut.
Now, if you’re in on this GME shit, you likely know the outlines of the story here. But here’s a good link to refresh your memory about why we’re all here:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/k4csaa/the_real_greatest_short_burn_of_the_century_part/
And for further background, my recent post about the battle here between George Sherman, out-of-touch Hired Gun B&M Boomer CEO with the Boomer-est of all possible Boomer names, and Ryan Cohen, Boy Genius, Actual Good Guy, and Man With The Chewy-fication Plan: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/k9apx5/gme_q3_call_thoughts_on_the_clash_between_cohen/
So: are we ready to start READING and THINKING, children? Good.
Now what were you doing in the summer of 2020? I don’t give a shit what you were doing. But I do give a shit about what Ryan Cohen was doing. And there is a decent amount of evidence that Ryan Cohen spent the summer of 2020 hiring a bad ass lawyer and crafting a pretty solid plan to wrest control of a struggling Mall-based gaming retailer from its out of touch Boomer Board and CEO so he can turn it into an ecommerce juggernaut like his baby Chewy. And I think we are about to enter the next phase of that plan here shortly.
But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s first all get acquainted with Christopher P. Davis, Esquire, the attorney listed on each of the 13Ds filed by RC Ventures.
Chris Davis, Activist Attorney Extraordinaire and His Successful Use of the Consent Solicitation to Remove Dipshit Boards/CEOs
To cut to the chase, Chris Davis (who is definitely NOT the same dude playing first base for the Orioles) is a badass NYC attorney recently recognized as one of the nation’s premier shareholder activist lawyers. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kleinberg-kaplan-partner-chris-davis-recognized-by-chambers-usa-as-leading-shareholder-activist-lawyer-301090571.html.
So what was Chris Davis doing in the summer of 2020? So glad you asked. He was celebrating a major win he helped engineer on behalf of a “first time activist Michael Gorzynski” for a wholesale replacement of the sitting Board at HC2 Holdings, Inc (sounds fancy). He helped engineer this takeover via a “high stakes consent solicitation rather than the more typical proxy contest.”
Learn more about this here: https://www.kkwc.com/insights/kleinberg-kaplan-advises-mg-capital-management-in-its-consent-solicitation-and-successful-settlement-with-hc2-holdings/
Here’s a few more links if you care to learn more about that and how it all went down (spoiler alert: the activists settled for two seats on the Board and then the new Board very quickly ousted the dipshit Boomer CEO, Phil Falcone)
http://www.shareholderforum.com/shfk/Library/20200611_II.htm
http://www.shareholderforum.com/access/Library/20200219_Deal.htm
In sum: if you look into Chris Davis, you can see that this guy is dialed the fuck in and knows how to get activist shareholders a win—even in very challenging circumstances.
The Summer of ’20 Out-of-the-Blue Boy Genius Media Campaign and Cohen’s 13D Filing in August
I’m going to return to the “consent solicitation” thing at the bottom and why I think it matters here, but I don’t want to lose momentum on the timeline and evidence. And the consent solicitation is Advanced Level Shit that I barely understand anyway. But I think it’s likely to be goddamn important so I’ll get to it.
Now, where were we? Oh yes, the inexplicable media campaign.
RC Ventures files its 13D on August 18th announcing that Ryan Cohen is now the proud owner of 5.8M shares or 9% (later increased to 9.8%) of That Cluttered Video Game Geekery You Used to Pass on Your Way to Jamba Juice or Wherever People Go in Malls. Uh, ok man. But then this is when the SP of this Future Blockbuster™ starts its real run as more catch on that Cohen has taken a huge stake and that is also part of the portfolio of Mr. Big Short himself and a bunch of institutions and they actually have cash and are definitely not going bankrupt and oh have you heard about the insane short percentage of float and the upcoming console cycle that invariably corresponds to a sharp spike in SP? Well have you? But to return to the point: RC was and is the largest shareholder.
But prior to the date Cohen filed his 13D, there is a renewed media campaign focused on Ryan Cohen, Ecommerce Billionaire Genius who built Chewy, kicked Amazon’s ass, and then sold it for $3.35B way back in the heady mask-free days of ‘17. Why the sudden re-emergence of Mr. Cohen in the summer of 2020 in such a prominent way with this glowing media campaign about a guy who sold a very successful pet supply business over three years ago? Fawning media exposure like that doesn’t just happen (or not usually). It’s engineered. Or, more charitably, helped along by people who know people and can introduce those people to Interesting Topics to Write About. And my guess is that Chris Davis, bad ass activist attorney based in New York City, Knows People and had a little something to do with it.
Here are the links to all of the glowing media pieces starting in the summer of 2020 (all absolutely worth a read to get to know who this guy is and what makes him tick):
June 5 (Bloomberg) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/chewy-founder-cashes-out-bets-on-apple-wells-fargo
August 4 (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/chewy-co-founder-ryan-cohen-this-is-the-side-hustle-id-start-now.html
August 16 (Forbes) https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/08/16/entrepreneur-chewy-founder-ryan-cohen-shares-his-best-advice/?sh=41e1370e5840
October 15 (Business Insider) https://www.businessinsider.com/chewy-ryan-cohen-warren-buffett-lessons-apple-investment-2020-10
And a lot of the speculation I’m wheeling and dealing here was introduced by our man Justin Dopierala at Seeking Alpha way back in a September article not too long after the 13D filings: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4373819-gamestop-chewys-founder-ryan-cohen-finds-whats-next
But for now let’s “put a pin” on Mr. Dopierala, as George Sherman or some other Corporate Robot Dipshit might say, as he will be important to the story here again soon.
The November 16th “F U Old Man” Letter
If you haven’t read this ballsy letter Cohen wrote to the Board last month, you really should. We’ll wait for you. https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/RC_Ventures_Letter_to_GameStop.pdf
OK, ready again?
I don’t want to question Cohen’s possible writing abilities or give away too many tricks of the lawyer trade here (AI should take care of that in about a decade), but that letter was 100% written by Chris Davis. I’d literally bet my entire portfolio on that fact alone. That’s why you hire gunners like him. The letter has that has deliciously direct and aggressive lawyerly tone—the kind you use when you want to send a very clear message to some asshole without spelling it all out. I fucking love this letter. It was one of the main reasons I put the rest of my chips into the GME basket. I doubt I’m alone there.
And what did we learn from this letter? Well: a lot. But I’m going to focus on a few quick things. First, we learned that over the Summer, Cohen had “private conversations” with the Board and Sherman about the need to pivot toward becoming a technology-driven business with a new strategic vision. And he calls out Sherman and the Board directly for lacking this vision, using Mainstreet-Friendly pejoratives like “c-suite” and “boardroom.” He takes a direct shot at Hired Gun Sherman’s Boomer-Ass Business Record (Advanced Auto Parts! Cool!) and his obvious bent towards what he knows: Boring Ass Low Margin B&M Bullshit Companies and straight-up calls him a dumb-ass old man (“twentieth-century focus!”) who Just Doesn’t Fucking Get It. He alleges that he and the Board have presided over “massive value destruction” (almost makes it sound intentional, or at least grossly negligent) and have never taken “full accountability” for all their fuck-ups and intransigence.
Some folks have suggested that, sure, Cohen wants change and yeah he seemed like he had a bit of a bee in his bonnet, but if he doesn’t get some good movement in those areas, he’ll just sell his 6.5M shares to tank the stock and take his ball and go home to play with his dog, who loves him No Matter What. In this interpretation, the letter is just Cohen Asking To Speak To The Manager and then if the response is not to his liking, well then, He Will Just Take His Business Elsewhere, thankyouverymuch.
I do not think that is what is going on here. Not with Ryan Cohen and Chris Davis. This letter is Ryan Cohen Crossing The Fucking Rubicon.
He did the honorable thing and took his vision to the Board and Sherman. How genuine he was in that effort, I have no idea, as my thesis is that he has had a takeover plan in place since he hired Chris Davis. But whatever the initial motivations, it was the honorable thing to do to discuss his vision with Sherman and the Board before he and Chris Davis eventually rip their fucking hearts out (which, spoiler: I believe he is getting ready to do as we speak).
Reasonable minds can disagree here, but I do not think you write a letter like that unless you have a plan to handle all possible responses to it. He just torched his collegial relationship, such as there ever was or could have been, with that CEO and that Board. He flaunts Chewy’s world-class infrastructure and market cap versus their lame ass sub-$1B Dying Mall Store Bullshit. And he makes a very public rejection of a seat on the board (and the reason given: because you fuckheads would just ignore me and drive me nuts while you continue doing Dumb Boomer Shit with my money all goddamn day), which made it 100% clear to me that this is Cohen Serving Goddamn Notice that unless they get serious about the scope of their turnaround and start listening to him and convey this new direction to shareholders asap, that he’s coming for them. He even alludes to his own turnaround plan but then tells them to do their jobs like the Big Capable Adults they are.
And then Cohen attaches this letter to an amended 13D to ensure that all shareholders see it and also see that he still holds all of his shares. Within hours, the WSJ had an article on this: https://www.wsj.com/articles/gamestops-new-billionaire-investor-calls-for-tech-centric-makeover-11605565458?mod=hp_lista_pos5.
And guess what’s neat? If you are an interested shareholder or a habitual reader of the Wall Street Journal (I, sir, am not) and you saw that article, you might have wondered what this Cohen guy is all about? You know, Mortimer, the dog guy—made billions. And thanks to the recent out-of-the-blue marketing campaign that was definitely NOT engineered by Chris Davis as part of a takeover plan, your subsequent Google searches, and the recent articles they produced, likely made you think: this guy is a fucking whiz kid and I like the cut of his jib.
Cohen Quietly Meets With Funds/Investors
In the weeks leading up to earnings, sharp observers also notice something: Ryan Cohen is meeting with various large shareholders for some reason. There were several reports of this on stocktwits (links are lost to eternity in that cluttered hellhole unless some astute commentator can find and link in the comments), so some salt is a necessary accompaniment here (I like to cite my evidence), but we have at least one confirmed meeting with the head of DOMO Capital: Mr. Justin Dopierala. Now, Justin happens to be a pro-GME writer (and a sharp one at that) at Seeking Alpha. You know, that paywall website where people purporting to know what they’re talking about get paid peanuts to write purposefully inane articles for maximum clicks from other idiots? That one. Well Justin is one of the good ones there, and DOMO Capital is also a large shareholder of GME. (Conflict of interest, you say? Shut yo’ mouth!).
On November 30, at 9:19 AM (the payin’ for inanity crew can go see this – the comment is still there), Dopierala made the following comment on another SA article:
***
“I've recently had the pleasure of having a 1 on 1 video meeting with Ryan Cohen that lasted over an hour.
Going forward, I no longer feel comfortable commenting on the topic (of Ryan Cohen), so please understand when I do not respond to any of your questions on this specific topic.
Ryan is a very intelligent man, and I remain as bullish as ever on GameStop's future."
***
So what can we extrapolate from this?
Ryan Cohen likely reached out to DOMO Capital/Dopierala to discuss his strategic vision. I do not know if he announced his plans directly, or what the purpose of the call was (see the very below on how I think this all could relate to a consent solicitation to recall the board) but I’m sure, at the very least, the text, if not the subtext, was heavy as fuck on that Zoom call. And why do I think Cohen contacted him and not the other way around? Because Dopierala, a writer for SA that I’m sure would love to publish even an anodyne Q&A with Ryan Cohen to Get Him All the Clicks, didn’t get an on-the-record interview. Not even some softball about whether his dog prefers his Apple investment decision or his Wells Fargo one. No: he got the concession (assuming he did) to simply acknowledge that a discussion took place (buried in a comment on some other dude’s SA article), but he explicitly says he’s not going to talk about anything related to Cohen going forward. No sir, no how. But if Cohen is just a regular old fellow shareholder (Cue Ryan: “And Justin, please: the pleasure is all mine”), then why the fuck are you making a cagy comment and acting like you Have A Big Fucking Secret and Oh God I Wish I Could Tell You Something But I Just Cant! with that comment, Justin? The Man Doth Protesting and Shit, I say.
Here’s the article link for you Seeking Alpha Super Sleuths: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4380313-gamestop-likely-already-digital-revenue-sharing-sony-up-to-10
And even yesterday, Dopierala can’t help himself. In a discussion about Cohen’s tweet yesterday (you saw the tweet right? What kind of GME-to-da-moon! investor are you anyway? https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1336775515101949963), Dopierala gets all Jim Carey As The Riddler on us in a response to “EricinPDX,” (some dude living in the Portland Airport) who writes:
EricInPDX
I take his tweet as a total negative .. the Jim Cramer thing.
I have no position at the moment.
Our man Dopierala then responds “then you are wrong yet right.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4393394-gamestop-cohen-right-to-downplay-ps5-xbox-series-mistakes-core-digital-problem
So I think he’s having a little fun talking like a slightly less backwardsy Yoda saying: yeah, that Cohen tweet was obviously negative because he’s highlighting how fucked GME seems after that Q3 call (and also, check out how Chewy’s doin’ in that clip!). But it’s also not negative because it means Cohen is about to rip Sherman’s still-beating heart out and Shock And Awe our asses with a vote. And I, Justin Dopierala, head of DOMO Capital, can be a little wink winky about this because, oh I don’t know, on our hour long call Cohen maybe used puppetry to act out “Bryan Flohen’s” plan to call a vote and supplant the Bad Man “Gerald Shorman” while asking “Would You Theoretically Be With Bryan Flohen?” with a few well-timed arch of the eyebrows. Or he got his explicit consent to his plan (see below re consent solicitations). We just do not know.
In conclusion: We know that Cohen met with shareholders in the period between the day he sent that letter and the date of the Q3 call. We just do not know what was said. But we do know that Dopierella, either out of a sense of journalistic ethics (Stop laughing you guys! Seriously!) or out of concern about possible SEC lookie-loos, decides to be up-front about his inability to even utter the name Ryan Cohen from now on.
General George “Custard” Sherman’s Lame-Ass Empire Striking Back
Let’s recall the letter now. I’m guessing a rich, egotistical pampered-ass hired gun Boomer CEO named George goddamn Sherman didn’t like someone who reminds him of his asshole kids talking to him like that.
We all know what happened next: the Q3 “Say Omnichannel One More Time Motherfucker!” call. As I mentioned in my prior post on this (link above if you care), Sherman pulled the boomer-ist of boomer moves in an act of self-sabotage that is likely to be studied in business courses once this whole story plays out. You see, that letter that Cohen/Davis sent was a trap. And Sherman and the Board and their Big Fucking Corporate Brains clearly lack an inner Admiral Ackbar.
Cohen sent that letter three weeks before the earnings call. And demanded that they conduct *another* strategic review and present a plan to shareholders outlining how they are going to fully pivot into a new technology focused company. Cohen knows they have no intention of doing this. He’s apparently been hectoring them all summer about it. And I’m guessing he talked to Sherman enough to know that the dude is just not on the level (as all of us who listened to that fumbling bland-ass corporate caveat-speak on that call got to experience as well). So he knows, like we all did, that Q3 earnings are likely to be middling at best. But unlike me, who clearly thought that the one way out of this for Sherman and the Board was to give some exciting guidance on Q4, maybe even a share buyback (as they are authorized to do) and some more info on the Microsoft deal, likely revenue, other possible similar deals with Nintendo and Sony. I don’t know, but Something. No, Cohen and Davis are way smarter than me and know Sherman a bit better and probably assumed that Sherman is likely to whiff on a response to his letter. And lo and behold, whiff he does. Nothing. We get no response to the letter and no real plan to transform GME into a tech-driven gaming company (Sherman: “but, but…I said Omnichannel you guys! What do you want from me beyond bland corporate robot speak!?”).
But what else happens? Sherman and the Board inexplicably authorize a shelf registration for up to $100M worth of ATM shares. This from a company that just bought back shares, is authorized to buy back more, paid down debt early—and now is about to be flush with Sweet, Sweet New Console Cash. What in the everlasting fuck?
And in case you were inclined to give Sherman and the Board the benefit of the doubt here, the reason was simple and straightforward and included within the S3 filing itself. And that is: “Hey Cohen: Fuck Off. And if we have to dilute our shareholders to get you to fuck off, by God that’s the kind of shortsighted ME-first move that got George Sherman where he is today! So go find another company to hassle you ungrateful Millennial Start Up Dog Store Bro and let the adults handle this.”
Here is the provision in the S-3 (under the heading: Anti-Takeover Provisions):
Authorized But Unissued Shares
The authorized but unissued shares of common stock and preferred stock are available for future issuance without stockholder approval. These additional shares may be utilized for a variety of corporate purposes, including future public offerings to raise additional capital, corporate acquisitions and employee benefit plans. The existence of authorized but unissued shares of common stock and preferred stock could render more difficult or discourage an attempt to obtain control of us by means of a proxy contest, tender offer, merger or otherwise.
So instead of crushing the call and giving some dope guidance about Q4 and trigger the MOASS so we all revere the name George Sherman for All Eternity, Sherman and the Board make a lame-ass move to try to protect their jobs and--lo and behold!--THIS is the main takeaway of the report and call. And what drives the precipitous dive in SP AH and yesterday. A dive so steep that it removes well over $100M in market cap in value, the kinda-lame amount that you’re trying to stick Cohen with (and dilute all of us) so you can keep your Big Fancy-Man Job and the bonus you’re counting on so you and the misses can jet off to Sandals Jamaica like you always do. George: Whoops? Knew we should have gone with a higher number! A lame ass “poor man’s poison pill” as u/snowk88 on stocktwits put it (shout out because he also helped me flush out this thesis a bit and clued me in on Chris Davis’s work for MC).
So back to how I started this missive, back when we were all younger and maybe a bit more naïve, right? Anyway. Yesterday Ryan Cohen lost over $20M on paper because George Sherman thought the best way to handle that Punk-Ass Millennial was to use shareholders as a hostage in any possible fight over control of this company he’s been building his entire—oh, eh, the last 18 months because he’s just a hired gun that goes where the money is and waits for his ka-ching moment before splitting because who gives a fuck he’s George Sherman and You’re Not. But guess what happens when you do that? (Hand down, George: you’ve had your turn). You ENRAGE the shareholders who you want to have your back and vote for you in any possible proxy fight or takeover offer! What strategery! You must have been involved in planning the Iraq war, George.
But guess who was likely laughing their ass off yesterday at their colossal good fortune at this misstep? Ryan Cohen and Chris Davis. Because now Sherman has opened the door even wider than it was before and made it that much easier for Cohen to get the votes and kick down his fucking door.
And yesterday, to no one’s surprise, the SP falls almost 20% and even Jim Fucking Cramer piles on and tells all his braindead Boomer TV watchers that this is The Next Blockbuster like all the other Super Sophisticated Analysts out there.
And now we see the #WeWantCohen and #InstallCohen hashtags (which you all should consider using frequently if you dig all this and think Sherman needs to go).
What are you thinking if you’re Ryan Cohen? Take your ball and go home time? Or: maybe that it’s time to Show George Sherman that You Do Not Fuck With a Super Nice Guy With Really Good Ideas That Are Usually Respectfully Presented (Unless You Piss Me Off) Like Ryan Goddamn Cohen?
I’m thinking it’s the latter. Taking all of this, I think Cohen and Chris Davis have been planning some kind of takeover, possibly even via consent solicitation like Davis did in his MC matter, since the summer and that George Sherman’s ironic attempt to save his own skin is about to backfire stupendously to help Cohen lock in the votes he needs. And it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy—excuse me—I mean: Smug Asshole.
Epilogue: The Consent Solicitation
Ed: the consent solicitation is not likely in play here. But Cohen is definitely still coming for Sherman and Co - we just don't know exactly how yet.
Now, just what in the hell is a consent solicitation and why does it matter? I confess that I didn’t know shit about this until I started READING ALL THE WORDS, but our friends at theactivistinvestor.com have some useful information to help those of us with tiny little baby brains understand what it is and why it may be relevant here (relevant excerpts below, but it you really want to geek out on this shit, I would recommend clicking the link, reading the words and THINKING BIG THOUGHTS). And also, hoping that some folks can respond in comments to help flush this out further because it’s late and I’ve already written too many words.
But, before I drop some k-n-o knowledge from our friends at theactivistinvestor.com, just to remind you: GameStop is a Delaware Corporation.
Now imagine being magically whisked away to…Delaware! (Hi. I’m in Delaware).
*******
From: http://www.theactivistinvestor.com/The_Activist_InvestoConsent_Solicitations.html
[Ed: removed quoted text] *****
CPT Hubbard here again. I’ll release you momentarily. But study those steps a bit and ponder where Cohen might be in that process. And also recall that we know that Cohen had an “off the record” meeting with our man Dopierala from DOMO Capital and we have no idea what they talked about. Could Cohen have been getting shareholders consent? No idea. But it certainly seems possible. If that is the case, the 60 day clock is ticking. Which means that, assuming Dopierala was stop #1 (probably doubtful, but it’s the one data point we have), we should know something by at least late January if Cohen is actually initiating a consent solicitation on this incompetent Board and probably a lot closer to mid-January (Sorry Jan call holders) since I assume Cohen started reaching out around the time he sent that letter on Nov 16th.
To which I say to Cohen: Little old me and my 20,000 shares consent! We consent most emphatically, sir. And no one will ever accuse you, Mr. Cohen, of not seeking consent. You may retain this for your records.
To conclude, Cohen is Young, Scrappy and Hungry and He’s Not Throwing Away His Shot. And Fuck George Sherman.
“I’M FINISHED”
**To be clear: this missive is for information purposes only and I would advise against following my example in any way, shape or form, as this pandemic has quite plainly knocked a screw loose if I'm here writing novelas to a bunch of Paste-Eating Rocket Kids.

The chances of any male aged 15-39 starting for a team in their national domestic league - an analysis of 11 Leagues.

Yesterday I commented on how you had a 1.43% chance of starting for a domestic Icelandic side if you were a male aged 15-39 using quickmaths^TM .
It got me thinking about other small nations and the likelihood of starting for a team in your own national league if you’re a man of playing age.

The Assumptions

To get a rough estimate, I need to make several sweeping generalisations.
Assumption 1) It’s just men.
Despite exceptions like Yuki Nagasato and Ellen Fokkema, I’ll calculate solely from the amount of men in a nation that are between 15-39.
Assumption 2) It’s every man.
I don’t care if you hate football, if you’ve got a condition preventing you from playing football, or if you’re registered as a citizen of your country but live elsewhere, you’re getting included. Likewise, this means those who live in one nation but are a citizen of another won’t be included.
Assumption 3) Starting XIs can only be comprised of 15-39 year olds.
I know many 40+ year old players will be out there, but this demographic would match the general career of top footballers. I’ll use population pyramids to get the amount of men in this demographic. Pyramids tend to move in 5 year increments so 15-39 is the most fair range I can think of.
Assumption 4) All teams are independent from each other.
Inaccurate I know, but if I was calculating for Spain, I’d be counting Barcelona and Barcelona B as two separate clubs. If there is an easy way to separate the reserve teams from the rest, I won't include them (as you’ll see, I’m quite loose with this assumption).

Method

Find out how many men aged 15-39 are in a country. Divide that by the number of teams in their domestic league. Divide that figure by 11. 1 Divided by this answer and multiplied by 100 will give the % chance of a random male aged 15-39 being in the starting 11 for a team any given matchday.
Formula:
M/T=X
X/11=Y
1/Y=Z
Z x 100 = % chance.
(M = men, T = teams)

Limitations

Lots. I’m not trying to be too serious here. As I’ve said, I’m not factoring in people who can’t play, people who have moved out of the country, players who have come in from a different country etc…
Recordkeeping at lower league levels is hard so even the amount of clubs in a league system is a bit shoddy. Some of the population pyramids are marked poorly so I’ll have to guesstimate as best as I can.

Leagues to look at

These are the 11 domestic leagues I’ll look at. Each of these countries/territories are FIFA recognised. Why these 11? They were all on the lower end of FIFA rankings and population number.

Andorra
Faroe Islands
Gibraltar
Liechtenstein
Luxembourg
Monserrat
New Caledonia
San Marino
St.Kitts and Nevis
Tahiti
Turks and Caicos Islands

So, in order from lower to higher chance…

New Caledonia

Linguistically, New Caledonia is almost identical to Nova Scotia. Climatewise, they’re complete (but not polar) opposites. New Caledonia is neither an overseas region nor an overseas collectivity of France but lies in its own legislative niche in the southwest Pacific Ocean. The 70s was their golden age, with a win over New Zealand and scoring 3 against Bulgaria (only to concede 5). More recently they drew 1-1 against Estonia in 2017.
Their top division contains 12 teams, with a secondary division which contains up to 13 teams in any given season.
A 2019 population pyramid gives me an M number of 54032.
M = 54032 T = 25
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.51%.
My favourite domestic team: AS Magenta. They got to the Oceania Champions League Final in 2005, losing to Sydney FC.

Turks and Caicos Islands

A British overseas territory in the Caribbean, the wonderfully named Cockburn Town is it’s capital (pronounced cohw-burn like it’s Edinburgh Street counterpart). Horatio Nelson suffered a rare defeat of the coast of the islands in the 1780s and John Glenn landed near the islands in 1962 after his first spaceflight. Their national team hasn’t achieved much with only one World Cup qualifying win (which they lost on aggregate in the return leg).
Their domestic league has had up to 18 teams in the past, but last season only had 6 in their premier division. This number is fluid so the T number will be between 6-18.
A 2018 population pyramid brought the M number to c.12,200
M = 12200 T = 6-18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.54-1.62%
My favourite domestic team: If you think Red Bull is bad for corporate branding, 2-time league champions KPMG United FC were a strong team in the mid 2000s. In 2006 they changed their name, and won another league title under the new name PWC Athletic.

Tahiti

Tahiti is the largest island in French Polynesia, but FIFA recognises it as a separate footballing nation. Lyle Lanley famously swindled the town of Springfield and fled toward Tahiti. Before he got there however, he was attacked by the inhabitants of North Haverbrook. Tahiti beat the Cook Islands 30-0 in 1971. You might remember Tahiti from the 2013 confederations cup where they played Spain, Uruguay, and Nigeria. They scored 1 and conceded 24 giving them the worst GD of any national team in any major competition.
There are 2 tiers to the Tahiti domestic league, these contain 32 clubs (+14 reserve teams that I won’t count).
A population pyramid for Tahiti is impossible to find, as it is a subregion of French Polynesia. Nevertheless, you can be from any of the other islands and still represent Tahiti. This calculation from a 2020 population pyramid gives me an M number of 52931
M = 52931 T = 32
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.67%
My favourite domestic team: It is a tie between AS Excelsior and AS Dragon. Combining them would give the league a mythical allure.

Luxembourg

Luxembourg have been improving rapidly internationally. They beat Hungary in 2017 and they drew 0-0 with France less than a year before France became world champions. Real glory was bestowed upon them in 1980 they reached the semi-finals of the Indonesian Marah Halim Cup where they eventually lost to a Burmese XI.
Luxembourg have 5 tiers in their domestic league. These 5 tiers are home to a massive 104 teams.
A 2019 population pyramid shows Luxembourg having 109,701 males in the relevant age bracket. I clearly underestimated Luxembourg’s population.
M = 109,701 T = 104
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.04%
My favourite domestic team: FC Yellow Boys Weiler-la-Tour. What a name. 500pax capacity stadium. They play in the 2nd division which is also known as The Division of Honour. Their primary rivalry is with FC Blue Boys Muhlenbach and FC Red Boys Aspelt with a secondary rivalry against FC Green Boys 77 Harlange-Tarchamps.

Liechtenstein

One of the few double-landlocked countries in the world (they are landlocked as are their bordering countries), Liechtenstein squeezes in between Switzerland and Austria. Their national side signalled the beginning of the end of Jack Charlton’s Irish tenure when they held Ireland to a 0-0 draw in 1995. Ireland went on to get 3 points from a possible 12 and missed out on Euro 96. In 2011 it took until the 97th minute for Scotland to beat Liechtenstein.
The 7 football teams that are based in Liechtenstein all play in the Swiss domestic league. This stretches from FC Vaduz in the top division, to FC Schaan who play in the 8th tier.
The most recent population pyramid I could find was from 2015. No worries. I’ll calculate the M number from the 10-34 age range here instead of the 15-39. In this way it is a slightly more accurate, but still really flawed figure. This number comes to a suspiciously specific 5473
M = 5473 T = 7
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.41%
My favourite domestic team: FC Vaduz. I’ve been to Vaduz. It was hot and expensive. While there, I caught a glimpse of Pak Kwang-Ryong, their star striker who has been the North Korean footballer of the year in 2013. Previously he scored against Spurs in 2011.

St.Kitts and Nevis

Saint Kitts and Nevis is a dual island nation in the Caribbean. Neil deGrasse Tyson takes his middle name from his Nevis born grandmother. Founding father of the USA, Alexander Hamilton, was also born on Nevis. As for St Kitts, Marcus Rashford has a Kittitian grandmother. St Kitts and Nevis got to within one round of qualifying for the 2006 World Cup and are the only Caribbean side to beat a European team, when they defeated Andorra in 2015.
The Saint Kitts and Nevis domestic league is split across two tiers and I can find evidence of 14 teams.
A 2018 population pyramid gives me a rough M number of 9,700.
M = 9700 T = 14
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.59%
My favourite domestic team: Village Superstars FC. The 7 times league champions have earned their title.

Andorra

Nestled in the Pyrenees, the Andorran national side are the perennial whipping boys of every European and World Cup qualifying cycle. In 2001 they took the lead against Ireland (but conceded 2 in the next two minutes). Albania and Hungary are among the teams that have lost to Andorra previously.
Domestically, clubs play in the Primera and Segona Divisió. I found many defunct clubs but from what I can see, there are currently 18 active clubs in Andorra
The most recent population pyramid I could find was from 2018. Using this data, I calculated that there are c.11,900 males aged 15-39 in Andorra.
M = 11900 T = 18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.66%
My favourite domestic team: FC Andorra. The biggest side. Based in the capital. Named after the country but have never played in the domestic league. They play in Spain. They weren’t included in the calculation.

Faroe Islands

The Faroe Islands did the double over Greece in Euro 2016 qualifying. They’ve also beaten Iceland and Lithuania in the past. The beautiful rugged North Atlantic archipelago voted for independence in 1946 but this result was annulled by the Danes. 2 years later they were granted extensive home rule.
Like Andorra, there are 18 official clubs (There are 4 divisions in Andorra with the bottom ones being exclusively populated by reserve teams. I’ve only counted non-reserve teams in brazen defiance of my 4th assumption).
Again, the most recent population pyramid was from 2018. I found c.8800 15-39 year old males.
M = 8800 T = 18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 2.25%
My favourite domestic team: B36 Tórshavn. A great run saw them reach the 3rd qualifying round of the Europa League this season, eventually losing out to CSKA Sofia

Gibraltar

Gibraltar has been a FIFA member since 2016. They’ve beaten Armenia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, and San Marino since becoming FIFA members. Their 2 tier national league is currently home to 17 clubs (2 recently disbanded).
Their 2018 population pyramid showed roughly 5600 eligible males living in Gibraltar.
M = 5600 T = 17
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 3.34%
My favourite domestic team: Lincoln Red Imps. They went 1,959 days unbeaten in the domestic league from 2009-2014. Followed up in 2016 with a win over Celtic. Not content with only one Old Firm scalp, they played Rangers this season but got smashed 5-0.

San Marino

One of two states completely enveloped by Italy, San Marino will be remembered for their 1993 match against England when they scored after 8.3 seconds and then went on to concede 7. On the other end of the 90 minutes, they scored an 87th minute equaliser against Ireland only to concede again in the 95th minute in 2007. Turkey, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar, and Estonia are the only teams to have ever dropped points against San Marino. A 1-0 win over Liechtenstein in a 2004 friendly remains their only win to date.
The league system in San Marino comprises of 15 teams in two conferences (there is no relegation/promotion). The Sammarinese league is rated 55/55 regarding UEFA Coefficients.
I found a 2016 population pyramid, so like Liechtenstein, I shifted the data to 10-34 year olds for this M number. The number here was c.4800
M = 4800 T = 15
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 3.44% chance
My favourite domestic team: A.S. San Giovanni. The only team from San Marino that has never won anything domestically. They have a downright wacky poorly translated history on Wikipedia which only endeared them to me more.

Monserrat

A volcanic British Overseas Territory in the Caribbean. Due to huge eruptions that started in 1995, more than half of the island is uninhabitable. Many indentured Irish servants were brought to Monserrat which has left a noticeable impression on the demographics of the island. Riley, O'Brien, Farrell, Ryan, and Meade are some of the more prominent surnames on Monserrat. The 'Black Irish' of Monserrat is something that has often been reported on.
Monserrat routinely featured at the foot of the FIFA rankings for many years. On the day of the 2002 World Cup Final, Monserrat played Bhutan in what was called ‘The Other World Cup Final’ as it was between the two bottom ranked sides. Bhutan won 4-0 which was their first ever international win.
Monserrat has had an unstable league system due to constant volcanic eruptions. Teams come and go quite frequently. There are at least 5 times and at most 12, so the T number will be 5-12
With a tiny population, the Monserrat M number is only 1240.
M = 1240 T = 5-12
Chances of starting for a domestic team: 4.44%-9.68%
My favourite domestic team: Oh the Montserratian team names are amazing. Montserrat Volcano Observatory Tremors or the Seven Day Adventists Trendsetters would be my top picks.

Bonus

The Vatican City

The not FIFA recognised, home to so many skewed per capita records, I thought I’d include the Vatican just out of curiosity.
The Vatican actually has an internal domestic league, The Vatican City Championship, with 8 teams. The teams are comprised between the staff of the police, the newspapers, the library, and other administrative bodies. The pope is yet to line up for any of the sides. The league also has a cup competition, The Vatican Supercoppa
The only population pyramid I found was poor and unsourced. As there are minimal women living in the Vatican, It’s safe to assume almost all of the 825 residents are male. As it’s difficult to find age breakdowns, I’ll include every person living in the Vatican as my M number.
M = 825 T = 8
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 10.70%
TL;DR

Domestic League	% chance
New Caledonia	0.51
Turks and Caicos Islands	0.54-1.62
Tahiti	0.67
Luxembourg	1.04
Liechtenstein	1.41
St.Kitts and Nevis	1.59
Andorra	1.66
Faroe Islands	2.25
Gibraltar	3.34
San Marino	3.44
Monserrat	4.44-9.68
The Vatican¹	10.70

¹ Not FIFA recognized.

Conclusion

Want your son to have the best chance of being in a starting XI? You better move to Monserrat. If you’re European and don’t want to move too far maybe San Marino is your best bet.
Of course if you were just looking to get into a matchday squad,you could roughly double the percentage.
There are around 200 countries in the world and I only looked at 5% of them. I’m sure there are other ones with better ratios out there but quite frankly, I’m too lazy.
Thanks for reading!
Sources:
Population pyramids:
https://www.populationpyramid.net/
https://www.theodora.com/
Club numbers:
www.wikipedia.org for general info and then the citations on wikipedia for a more detailed look.
https://int.soccerway.com/
www.FIFA.com

28 year old, Accounting Consultant: I want to retire young so I can dedicate my time actually giving back to the world compared to my accounting consulting job.

Ended my gambling career (for now) on a high note - jackpot handpay to end 2020. My thoughts and ramblings as a now-retired gambler.

Stocks to watch next week based on screening and settings I use personally - Food for thought

Stating the obvious - Bearish on DASH, (too long) case and risk defined option approaches

Deshaun Watson ESPN+ Article

Deshaun Watson's trade value and destinations, plus what the Houston Texans do next
Jeremy FowlerESPN Staff Writer
The potential -- inevitable? -- Deshaun Watson breakup with the Houston Texans is running its natural course, with four stages cleared and more coming: Stage 1: Watson's unhappiness over ownership decisions goes public. Stage 2: Watson doesn't return phone calls from the Texans. Stage 3: An Adam Schefter tweet reminds us that, yes, this is real. Stage 4: Watson and his marketing agent like an Instagram account showcasing a New York Daily News cover saying the New York Jets must do "WATever it Takes" to get Watson in a trade. Not everyone around the league is convinced the Texans will trade Watson. But we know how these things usually go. And we know the next stages: Stage 5: Houston will "listen" to offers, but isn't actively trading Watson. Stage 6: OK, so now they are initiating trade talks. Stage 7: Teams that really want him try to downplay his importance by pumping up the quarterbacks they already have, but don't like as much. This is the NFL's circle of life, and short of new GM Nick Caserio going full John Cusack with the boombox outside of Watson's window, a trade feels very possible. This is wild to say about a top-five quarterback in his prime. Which is also why the Texans can, will and should try everything possible to reconcile this. But Watson clearly is frustrated by the Texans' business dealings, and he's showing the power he wields without saying a word. Embattled executive Jack Easterby, a former chaplain and character coach, is fighting for his job, influencing decision-making at the top and rankling a faction of the locker room with a disingenuous mix of faith and football, according to investigative work by Sports Illustrated. Owner Cal McNair said he would involve Watson in the process of hiring a general manager and head coach, but swiftly hired Caserio, with whom Easterby has a relationship from his days in New England. This usurped Watson's desire for a culture change, and a source close to Watson told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that firing Easterby would not resolve the issue, saying that "Cal McNair would have to fire Cal McNair." This is a massive story that deserves treatment from all angles, setting the stage for perhaps the biggest blockbuster deal since the Minnesota Vikings traded away eight draft picks, including three first-round selections, five veteran players and more to acquire Herschel Walker in 1989. After several talks with NFL personnel, here's what to expect from the Watson saga, the teams people in the league are talking about as best fits, and why it could take an unprecedented haul to get the 25-year-old out of Houston.
What does Watson's contract look like?
In September, Watson signed a four-year, $156 million extension with a $27 million signing bonus, an average annual payout of $39 million and $73 million guaranteed.
Watson had two years left on a rookie deal that included a fifth-year option, so the Texans worked that remaining money into the deal for a total haul of around $180 million over six years, expiring after the 2025 season. The Texans had an offseason to forget. They foolishly traded away DeAndre Hopkins for Day 2 draft capital. They were reeling and needed a move to instill confidence and spin the franchise forward. Signing Watson to the second-richest contract in NFL history behind Patrick Mahomes' 10-year, $450 million deal was an easy call.
Why is the deal friendly to prospective teams?
Because the Texans must keep the signing bonus on their salary cap, which means Watson's payout and salary cap on a new team would be $10.54 million in 2021, a serious bargain for any quarterback, let alone a top-five passer. The next two years are heavier lifts: $35 million in 2022, all base salary, and $37 million in 2023, including a $20 million salary and a $17 million roster bonus. So a team acquiring Watson would pay $45.5 million over the next two years and $82.5 million over three years. For comparison, that's roughly the same amount the Eagles are scheduled to pay Carson Wentz (three years, $81.9 million) over the same span. "A bargain," said an NFL salary-cap executive. "I bet many teams would do that in a heartbeat." Watson's $32 million base salaries in 2024 and 2025 are not guaranteed, so most teams would focus on the three-year window with Watson.
Can Watson really pick his new team based on a no-trade clause?
Sort of. Watson's contract states that the Texans are not permitted to trade Watson unless the player gives the team written consent to do so. So, in the realest sense, Watson has to sign off on a deal. If the Texans have a deal lined up with Team X and Watson doesn't want that team, he can withhold that consent.
Max, Stephen A. slam Texans for situation with Deshaun Watson
Max Kellerman and Stephen A. Smith break down how the Texans have fractured the relationship with Deshaun Watson, their franchise quarterback.
If this process goes far enough, the Texans and Watson's agent, David Mulugheta, can discuss teams that would generate approval from Watson, so it's a nonissue once a trade gets close. While the no-trade clause is leverage in the typical sense, Watson also has something else on his side. "He's the franchise QB that speaks on behalf of a frustrated locker room," an NFC exec said. "If he's not happy, those guys in the locker room will follow him. And that can have a lasting impact on your entire team's performance in 2021."
What does all that mean for the Texans' options?
If a trade happens, it means the Texans would have paid $29.4 million to Watson for the 2020 season, then taken on $21.6 million in dead salary cap for trading away a generational player -- unless they can make a case through NFL's management council that the new team should absorb some of the signing bonus, which doesn't often happen. No draft haul will ease that pain. "I've talked to GMs who say why would you give away a player who's so talented and young and such a building block?" an NFL personnel man said. "Especially as you just paid him $27 million a few months ago." Caserio looms large here. What's clear is Watson didn't like the process by which the new GM landed the Texans' job; this implies he's not exactly thrilled by the hire, though his problems seem directed at the people doing the hiring. But several people in the league say the Watson drama has camouflaged the home run hire Houston just made. Caserio was a key component to New England's run and is well-respected around the league. He also embodies the Patriot Way, which means he'll move in calculated silence. "The one thing I know about Nick is he'll do what's best for the Texans -- if that means Watson stays, he'll stand firm on that," an AFC personnel man said. "I believe that." The Texans' leverage is simple: Players show up when the money is in jeopardy. An extended absence from the team could eventually default Watson's contract, which puts paying back signing-bonus money on the table. But that would ignite an already-wounded locker room. Good luck with that. "I'd be hard-pressed to believe they want to get out of this deal," an NFC exec said. "Something doesn't add up."
How does the NFL view Watson as a player?
Watson was the No. 4 quarterback in our top 10 series ranking players at each position with input from more than 50 NFL coaches, execs and scouts, narrowly defeating Drew Brees with toughness and dynamic playmaking. Teams laud Watson's special playmaking despite a subpar offensive line for the better part of his four seasons in Houston. Clutch performances are a trademark for Watson, whose 10 game-winning drives in his first three seasons were the most of any NFL quarterback from 2017 to '19. Comebacks were hard to find during the Texans' 4-12 season in 2020, but Watson didn't hurt his stock with a career-high 112.4 passer rating along with 4,823 yards, 33 touchdown passes and seven interceptions, completing 70.2% of his passes. He was top five in several categories: yards per attempt (second, 8.3), Total QBR (fourth, 69.9), percentage of throws that result in a first down (second, 39.9%), expected points added as a rusher among QBs (second, +69.0) and completion percentage above expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats (fourth, 64.5%). Still, NFL personnel evaluators maintain Watson isn't the easiest player to assess because he has taken a jarring 174 sacks, isn't considered elite with pocket maneuvering and, in the eyes of one NFL coordinator, could use more offensive structure and tough coaching.
Watson takes sacks on 8.3% of his dropbacks, the most of any NFL player with 20 or more games played. Only Russell Wilson has more sacks since 2017, during which the Texans' offensive line ranked 13th in pass block win rate, indicating you can't totally blame blocking for the sack numbers. Watson has a 3.0% interception rate when his team has the lead, which is fifth worst in the league. "Deshaun can continue to improve as a quarterback, which is probably the most exciting thing about him," an NFC exec said. "He's a high-level guy with all the tools and he's still got nuances that he can master, and he seems to be chipping away at those each year." Watson is hardly a slam dunk to earn the No. 4 spot in this year's rankings, though, with Josh Allen coming on in a big way.
What will Watson's trade value be?
All those numbers stress how unprecedented a quarterback of this stature being potentially available really is. Since 2000, eight veteran NFL players were traded for multiple first-round picks. The only quarterback on that list is Jay Cutler, who went from the Broncos to the Bears in 2009 in exchange for Kyle Orton, back-to-back firsts and a third-round pick. Several of these deals came recently. In 2019, the Los Angeles Rams and Texans gave up two firsts for cornerback Jalen Ramsey and tackle Laremy Tunsil, respectively. That 2021 pick from Houston gives Miami the No. 3 overall selection, thanks to a deal former coach Bill O'Brien executed before his 2020 firing. Last offseason, the Seattle Seahawks sent two firsts to the Jets for safety Jamal Adams. Then there's the Robert Griffin III trade in 2012, with the Washington Football Team giving the Rams two future first-round picks for the right to move from No. 6 to No. 2 overall in that draft.
Technically, no player since Herschel Walker has garnered three first-rounders. That would definitely change with Watson, several evaluators say. "Oh yeah -- he's worth at least that," one NFC exec said. "The haul would be pretty insane." NFL front-office personnel are unanimous in this, with several saying additional draft capital might be necessary. It largely depends where the picks in the first round might fall. Many pointed out that if Adams, Ramsey and Tunsil garnered two firsts, Watson should get far more because of the importance of the quarterback position.
When could Watson be dealt?
Trades can't be executed until March 17, the first day of the new league year, but teams can agree in principle to a deal well before then. A hard deadline might be April 29, the first day of the draft. It makes little sense to do it after, since any pact would likely need to include a first-round pick this year. Perhaps the Texans could play hardball and push this through the offseason, knowing the draft capital will be there for future years. Maybe Caserio doesn't like the quarterbacks in this year's draft. That also gives Watson more time to change his mind. But evaluators agree that pre-draft is the time to do it.
What are the potential destinations for Watson?
Acquiring Watson might require not only three first-rounders, but at least one very high pick, multiple evaluators say. That's why those same evaluators consistently point to two teams: the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Both teams have two things in this year's draft that others don't: a top-three pick, and multiple firsts. New York has the second overall pick and the 23rd pick, acquired in the Adams trade. Miami selects third and 18th overall. Working with these two teams gives Houston the chance to draft Watson's replacement or take on their respective current starters, Sam Darnold or Tua Tagovailoa, if they want one of them. "If Houston does a deal with one of them, I bet they go after both firsts in this cycle, because that immediately helps them get better in a year they have limited capital," said an AFC personnel man, referring to Houston's lack of picks in the first two rounds this year. "In future years, you don't know what those picks are going to be." Both teams easily could absorb Watson's contract. The Jets' $69,385,570 in projected cap space is enough for Watson and some free-agent wide receivers to join him. The Dolphins have $24,876,158 in space -- and no state income tax, which Watson has gotten used to playing in Texas. The Texans could ask teams to throw in star or ascending players to sweeten the deal. The Jets' best asset might be left tackle Mekhi Becton, but GM Joe Douglas probably won't want to part with his first draft pick. Becton looks like a future All-Pro. The Dolphins have interceptions leader Xavien Howard and intriguing young pass-rushers, for starters.
Multiple execs estimate anywhere from 10-15 teams would at least consider giving up major draft capital to get Watson. There are simply too many QB-starved teams out there. The Carolina Panthers have been linked to Watson if he were to become available, and it's true that they see Watson as a player worth serious draft capital. That doesn't mean they would go all the way. But they are a team to watch. They don't appear completely sold on Teddy Bridgewater and are poised to select a quarterback high in April's draft. They have $14.3 million in cap space, the eighth overall pick and are in the process of getting younger. Watson, a Georgia native, would be getting back to the Southeast. Bridgewater's three-year, $63 million contract signed last year isn't crippling for Carolina long term. His $17 million salary is guaranteed for this year, but the team could actually save $1 million in cap space by designating Bridgewater a post-June 1 release, according to ESPN's Roster Management System. In 2022, they can walk away with $21 million in cap savings. Don't laugh, but another sleeper team that a few NFL people have mentioned as a potential fit is the Chicago Bears. There are people in that building who are very high on Watson and they could be looking for a reboot at the position as Mitchell Trubisky's contract expires. GM Ryan Pace could essentially get a mulligan on the 2017 draft. Pace might not have favored Watson then, but he has more, uh, evidence now. Their $10.2 million cap deficit is a stumbling block, but cutting or restructuring veteran contracts can help. Releasing tight end Jimmy Graham and guard Bobby Massie takes care of $13 million in space. The Bears pick 20th in the draft and might have to throw in an extra Day 2 pick to compensate for the lack of high standing. Whatever it takes to get Chicago's first 4,000-yard passer in franchise history. And for as bad as the NFC East was this year, there's an improving team with $35.4 million in cap space and tons of intriguing young players who could make a move: the Washington Football Team. "I think they will be involved in the QB sweepstakes in a big way," an NFC exec said. "They know they are close."
Will a trade really happen?
Team officials are torn on this, because trading him makes little sense logistically, but the story isn't going away. "He just signed his deal, what, five months ago," one AFC exec said. "You've got to think they had plans to stay together long term when they did this. I know things have changed but if the right people get on the phone and cooler heads prevail, maybe they can squash all this." The hiring of the coach will be significant. Even if Watson isn't returning calls, the Texans know the QB favors Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy for the job. Bieniemy virtually interviewed with the team Monday and is considered a legitimate candidate.
One NFL personnel exec brought up a concern over giving up so much draft capital and absorbing the financial commitment for a player who appears to be forcing a trade. What if the player turns around and does the same to you, he asked? And he wonders if that would give enough teams pause to halt a deal. But Watson might have documented behind-the-scenes stories that illustrate an even deeper Texans problem than expected. And Watson, by all accounts, has been a high-character guy throughout his football career. "It seems like he might just be fed up," an AFC personnel evaluator said. "And if he's willing to dig in on it, there might be no coming back and the team figures it has to do a deal when draft capital is so precious in today's game."

I put a clone of 17-year-old CC Sabathia on all 30 MLB teams in 1998 and simmed their careers

A few months back, I took a 17-year-old prospect, put a copy of him on every team in the league, and simmed for a few decades to see how he would perform given the various team environments. You can see the results of that experiment here:
https://www.reddit.com/OOTP/comments/ijivv3/i_put_a_clone_of_a_17yearold_prospect_on_all_30/
I decided to repeat the experiment using a pitcher. This time, I wanted to do things a little differently. Instead of starting in 2020, I wanted to use a historical player, though one who played pretty recently and completed his real-life career. I also wanted him to be durable, since the kid I had in my other sim was Fragile or Wrecked for most of his career.
I found the perfect candidate in Carsten Charles Sabathia. Welcome to the CClone League.
https://i.imgur.com/Yt03qHi.jpg
As an added bonus, CC's career started in 1998, just as the last two expansion teams were getting underway, so I'll be able to include him on all 30 MLB teams without having to worry about adding him to expansion teams.
As before, I'll assign a middle name to each version of CC based on the team he started with (CC Indian Sabathia, CC Ranger Sabathia, etc.) for my save, and refer to them just by those names, even if they change teams. I also used the OOTP engine for development, rather than historical development, to provide maximum variety.
One last note before we begin: After my last sim, someone suggested I use perfect scouting accuracy. I have that enabled and even at the start of the sim, about 1/3 of the CCs are 1/4.5 current/potential, while the rest are 0.5/4. Not sure what that means.
With that out of the way, here we go!
1998: The first news I got was on June 1, where both Giant and Devil Ray were named Pitchers of the Month in their respective leagues.
As for his supposed durability, three CCs were on the injured list at the end of the season, with the worst luck going to Oriole, who suffered a torn meniscus on June 19, costing him the rest of his season. The original CC, Indian, also had his season cut short, as a torn labrum suffered on Aug. 11 would require seven months of recovery time.
Here's how everyone's stats stacked up at the end of the season:
https://i.imgur.com/bY1esrW.jpg
Met is clearly the early leader, with a 4.2 WAR and 2.86 ERA in 160.2 IP. On the other end of the spectrum, we have Blue Jay, who went 130.2 IP – not bad! – but with a 5.10 ERA and bottomed-out 0.4 WAR.
Also, this being 1998, I thought I should mention that Juan Gonzalez led the Majors with 59 HR. Mark McGwire hit 42, while Samma Sosa played in just 77 games, missing six weeks with an injury, and went deep 21 times. Expansion teams Tampa Bay and Arizona won 76 and 78 games, respectively. Meanwhile, Milwaukee made the most of its first year in the National League, beating Seattle in six games to win the World Series.
1999: On Opening Day, one CC (Angel) was assigned to AAA and seven to AA. Four of them – Diamondback, Expo, Athletic, and Indian – were all the way down in D/E ball.
After just one month and four AAA starts, Angel was called up to the big-league team and made his first start on May 3, 1999 at the age of 18 years and 316 days. He was rocked to the tune of 7 H, 3 BB, and 5 ER allowed in 4.2 IP, taking the loss in an 11-3 loss against the White Sox. On the bright side, he did strike out seven.
https://i.imgur.com/V6Pysv2.jpg
On May 11, Cub suffered a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, diagnosed as an 11-12 month injury. On May 18, Giant got suspended for a fight with someone named John Novak. The tale of the tape: Sabathia at 6'7”, 285 lbs., Novak at 6'1”, 215 lbs. I know who I'd bet on. Red Sock fired a no-hitter in AA ball on July 2.
Two weeks before the trade deadline, in July 18, Indian was traded to the Angels, along with two other prospects, for Mike Bordick. So now the Angels have both the first CC to make the Majors, and the original CC.
Angel finished the season with 98 IP and an unsightly 7.07 ERA and -0.5 WAR, as well as a partially torn labrum that mercifully ended his season on September 25. White Sock was the second CC to make his MLB debut, tossing 3.2 IP in mop-up work in a 22-4 win on August 9 … and promptly suffering shoulder inflammation and missing six months. Phillie also got into five games late in the season.
Also, no big, but Montreal won the World Series, 4-1 over the Indians.
2000: On Opening Day, Angel, Phillie, Red Sock, and White Sock were all on MLB rosters, although Angel was still expected to miss 8 weeks with his injury. Marlin, Oriole, and Red Sock all have five-star potential, while Ranger is at the bottom with 1.5 stars. Every CC is in A ball or higher.
On July 21, CC turned 20 years old, and 14 of him had made the Majors.
Dodger was NL Rookie of the Month in June, and Royal took home AL honors in August. By the end of the season, 17 CCs had appeared in the Majors, with Dodger clearly standing out as the best. He had a 2.51 ERA in 111.1 IP and a 2.4 WAR. Rockie also managed a 1+ WAR, 1.3, tossing 79.1 innings to the tune of a 4.08 ERA – not bad for early-century Coors. Dodger and Royal became the first CCs to make their postseason debuts.
https://i.imgur.com/rtjN46q.jpg
2001: On April 8, 2001, the real CC Sabathia made his Major League debut. In my sim, 17 CCs were on MLB rosters on that date. 10 were at AAA, and the other three, including the original, were at AA. Two of them had even somehow grown an inch!
https://i.imgur.com/nndCYBs.jpg
White Sock finished third in the AL in wins (17) and had the highest MLB WAR (4.3) of all the CCs. Dodger (3.7), Cardinal (3.6), and Rockie (3.5) all turned in solid seasons, too. Every CC is still with his original franchise, except for the aforementioned Indian.
2002: On Opening Day, 24 of 30 CCs are in the Majors. Five more are at AAA, and poor Ranger is at A. He does not look good.
https://i.imgur.com/NYgDMNQ.jpg
On July 27, Cub was traded to Atlanta. He only appeared in four games for Atlanta's AAA club, notching a 9.64 ERA in 4.2 IP. Only he, Athletic, and Ranger failed to pitch in the Majors at some point during the season.
Dodger led with 5.4 WAR, followed close behind my Marlin's 5.3. 13 CCs managed a 2.0 WAR or better.
2003: On May 10, Red wrote himself into the record books, twirling a perfect game against the Brewers.
https://i.imgur.com/OxLeo7C.jpg
12 CCs exceeded 200 IP on the season, led by Red and his 249.1 IP. He led the NL with a 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Four of the top seven ERAs in the Majors were CCs. Brave and Dodger each had 20 wins, tied for the MLB lead with Boston's Pedro Martinez and Houston's Johan Santana. Marlin had the best WAR among CCs, leading the pack with 7.2.
The season took a toll, though. By the end of the year, five CCs were on the injured list with ailments that would keep them sidelined for at least six more months. Red Sock had also went down with a torn UCL (12-13 months) before the season began.
The NL Cy Young voting results were: 1. Red; 4. Marlin; 5. Dodger; 7. Brave; 10. Brewer.
Now that most of the “firsts” are out of the way, I'll speed things up a bit.
July 20, 2004: Phillie is traded to Pittsburgh.
Nov. 9, 2004: Royal wins the AL Cy Young Award. Mark Prior wins the NL award, edging Marlin, who had an outstanding 8.2 WAR and 2.74 ERA … but an 11-17 record, tied for the most losses in the league.
Nov. 19, 2004: Ranger and Athletic are released. They're the only two CCs not to have made the Majors.
Dec. 5, 2004: Houston signs White Sock to a three-year, $5,940,000 deal to be its closer. He's got 59 saves in his career (27 last year) but a so-so 4.33 ERA.
Opening Day, 2005: Only Athletic is unemployed. He eventually found work in Tampa Bay's minors.
June 11, 2005: Marlin agrees to an extension with Florida to the tune of 6 years and $138,600,000.
Sept. 6, 2005: This time it was Royal's turn to pitch a perfecto, this one against the White Sox. Both perfect games have been 1-0 affairs.
https://i.imgur.com/y5L74VM.jpg
Sept. 10, 2006: Phillie and Red Sock are the top two vote-getters for best pitcher of the year … in the AZL.
End of 2006: Oriole led the AL in ERA (2.86) and K's (202) and took home the Cy Young Award. Marlin's WAR his last four years: 6.8, 7.9, 8.2, 8.1. He's a three-time All-Star, but hasn't taken home any hardware.
Nov. 25, 2006: We get our first big-money free agent deal, as Dodger signs with Texas for 6 years and $132 million. He has a 103-59 career record, 3.21 ERA, and 32.9 WAR at age 26, but he put up a 4.64 ERA in his first year with his new team.
2008: 10 years in, and every CC is still active, though two (Athletic and Ranger) are unemployed. Colorado and Cincinnati each have three CCs in their organizations: two in the Majors and one in the Minors. Brewer and Marlin are each 4.5 stars, still with potential to reach 5. There are still two at 6'8”, and their weights range from 270 (Devil Ray) to 295 (Blue Jay) lbs.
Top 10 Career WAR: Marlin: 39.9 Dodger: 36.6 Oriole: 35.1 Brewer: 34.4 Red: 31.4 Royal: 28.6 Diamondback: 23.3 Cardinal: 21.7 Giant: 20.9 Devil Ray: 18.7
14 CCs spent 2007 as full-time starters, 3 more started and relieved, and 9 didn't start a game at the ML level. White Sock led the group with 34 saves (nobody else had more than 2) for Tampa Bay, while Twin has made 80, 77, and 90 relief appearances his last three years – with ERAs of 5.27, 4.48, and 6.47.
Brewer (1.81) and Marlin (1.98) finished 1-2 in the NL ERA race, while Red (7.9), Brewer (6.9), and Diamondback (6.2) were 1-2-3 in pitcher WAR. That was especially impressive for Brewer, who suffered a torn labrum on Aug. 11 that would knock him out of action for nine months. Red won the Cy Young Award.
In the 2009 offseason, Met made the surprising choice to slim down. He just signed a three-year deal with Tampa Bay and reported to camp at 235 pounds, making him the lightest CC by 35 lbs. I have to say, I didn't even know an event like this existed.
https://i.imgur.com/4bKRDzG.jpg
His ERAs during those three years: 4.68, 4.43, and 4.32. Maybe he should put the pounds back on.
Oct. 13, 2009: Athletic became the first CC to retire. He spent 2009 with the Single-A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, putting up a 4.13 ERA in 93.2 IP. He topped out at AAA in 2000-2002, and only even had five appearances at AA after that.
Opening Day, 2010: Here's a look at everyone's contract status going into the season:
https://i.imgur.com/J9DStqb.jpg
Aug. 4, 2011: Red followed up his 7-year, $115.9 million deal with Cincinnati by signing a 5-year, $107m extension.
Nov. 26, 2011: Brewer signed with the Chicago Cubs for 6 years and $170.4 million. His WHIPs the past nine years: 1.07, 0.95, 1.08, 1.05, 1.05, 0.83, 0.90, 0.94, 0.92. He celebrated by tearing the meniscus in his knee during Spring Training, which sidelined him for three months. He did OK that first year, again notching a solid WHIP (1.02) but declined after that.
June 28, 2012: Marlin, who's had a very good career with Florida (59.1 WAR) but suffered from numerous injuries (currently Wrecked) was traded to San Diego. He helped the Padres to a 100-win season, but they got bounced from the playoffs in the first round by the 97-win Diamondbacks.
2013, 15 years in:
https://i.imgur.com/GRCnPWr.jpg
Injuries are starting to take their toll on the CCs, as six are Fragile and one Wrecked. Still, 20 start the season in the Majors, while three are retired. And yes, Met is still (relatively) slender. Only six are still with their original franchises: Red, Brave, Royal, Blue Jay, Diamondback, and Devil Ray.
Top 10 Career WAR: Brewer: 62.9 Marlin: 60.6 Oriole: 60.0 Red: 59.6 Dodger: 57.0 Royal: 43.7 Diamondback: 42.9 Giant: 38.8 Brave: 32.0 Blue Jay: 31.4
By the end of the season, four more CCs had retired, bringing the total to seven.
Nov. 11, 2015: Red re-ups again with Cincinnati for two years. He's still effective at 35, putting up WARs of 4.0 and 4.6 the past two seasons.
Opening Day, 2016: Only 11 CCs remain in the Majors. Two are in AAA, and the rest are retired.
Opening Day, 2017: Dodger also shed some weight, dropping to 230 lbs. He's now the lightest CC.
July 13, 2017: It's the end of an era, as Cincinnati ships Red off to Detroit for a package including Shane Bieber.
Opening Day, 2018: 20 years in, and only two CCs – Brave (with Arizona) and Dodger (with Atlanta) – remained in the Majors. Red was active but unemployed. Dodger just signed a three-year deal (two plus one vesting) for $21 million per year, so it seems like that he, at least, will last as long as the real CC, who retired after 2019. Brave is on the second of a two-year deal that pays him just over a million per year.
Unfortunately, Dodger suffered a broken elbow in June, costing him the rest of his season. Brave was waived by Arizona, claimed by Cincinnati, and then traded to San Diego during the season. Red latched on with Anaheim and pitched decently – 4.29 ERA in 27 starts, 1.4 WAR – but went down in September and underwent Tommy John surgery. Amazingly, he came back from it and pitched for New York and Boston (poorly) in 2019.
Sept. 24, 2019 was the last day the real CC threw a pitch, but all three of Brave, Dodger, and Red persevered beyond that point. Dodger (247) has come close to matching the real CC's win total (251). Red retired after the playoffs ended.
2020: At the age of 39, Dodger and Brave are both still 3* pitchers. They're also two of the three lightest CCs, weighing in at 225 (Dodger) and 240 (Brave), so maybe there's a correlation between durability/career longevity and weight? Brave, who's been a reliever since 2012, put up a 4.59 ERA for St. Louis in 86.1 IP, while Dodger battled injuries and only made 13 starts, with a 4.19 ERA in 62.1 IP. In other “old pitcher” news, 34-year-old Felix Hernandez led the NL with 18 wins, pitching for Colorado. Oh, and the Orioles won the 2020 World Series, just like in real life, right?
2021: Approaching 41 years of age, Dodger and Brave soldier on, each losing an additional five pounds and pitching on one-year deals for Arizona and Boston, respectively. Dodger pitched pretty well – 3.09 ERA, 1.7 WAR – though injuries (he's now Wrecked) took their toll and he only made 21 starts. Brave lasted just nine games for Boston before being cut and picked up by the Chicago Cubs' AAA team. At both stops, he had a sub-2.00 ERA. The Orioles won the World Series again.
2022: Brave started the season pitching for the Cubs' AA affiliate. He got into 53 games, posting a 4.42 ERA and 26 saves. His WAR was -1.8 and he retired on Sept. 14.
Dodger, who had injury issues but was still a 2.5* pitcher, began the season unemployed. He signed a minor-league deal with Cleveland and made 15 appearances at A and AAA before retiring on Sept. 25 at the age of 42 years and 66 days. And with that, all CCs were out of baseball.
https://i.imgur.com/hvuzPL8.jpg
Other notes
Only one CC, Dodger, made the Hall of Fame, squeaking in with 76% of the vote in his first year of eligibility, 2021. His numbers: 3902.1 IP, 259-190, 3.57 ERA, 82.3 WAR.
Other CCs to receive Hall of Fame votes:
Red: 52.9, 52.0, 48.5, 40.3, 37.3, 42.2, 44.7, 37.9, 30.7, 27.7 Brewer: 56.4, 50.0, 57.0, 44.5, 43.9, 33.8, 34.1, 24.3, 26.3, 15.7 Marlin: 30.3, 39.9, 20.8, 30.4, 13.4, 20.5, 7.0, 10.2, 3.9 Oriole: 36.9, 35.8, 22.3, 23.1, 11.9, 12.8, 7.5, 5.8, 3.8 Royal: 26.3, 14.4, 11.3, 5.8, 6.4, 3.8 Diamondback: 6.9, 5.9, 1.5 Brave: 3.8 White Sock: 3.8 Cardinal: 1.7 Devil Ray: 1.1 Giant: 1.1
Other player notes
Cubs fans will be pleased to know that Kerry Wood stayed healthy throughout his career and pitched 3546.2 innings, making the Hall in 2021.
https://i.imgur.com/JuU6Bnd.jpg
A player with the initials J.M. who came up with the real-life Twins in the early 2000s made the Hall of Fame as a catcher. That was, of course, Justin Morneau.
https://i.imgur.com/IPB2Ya1.jpg
And then there's this guy. In real life, he's a lefty pitcher with an 8.18 ERA. In my sim, however...
https://i.imgur.com/xqz33JP.jpg
But he dropped off a cliff at age 34 and was unable to catch up with the all-time home run leader: the immortal Mitch Levier!
https://i.imgur.com/kPTCtoO.jpg
Other unexpected HOF players in my sim included Kelly Johnson, Brett Bonvechio, and Scott Schebler (who?). Meanwhile, Sean Rodriguez hit 81 HR in real life and 535 HR in my sim.
I messed up the sim at some point, maybe in the late 2010s, which seemed to make it so that no new players entered the league. Hence, by the late 2020s, when I was just checking for CC's HOF chances, most everyone in the league was in their 30s or early 40s, so those guys were playing against some very subpar pitching late in their careers. Still, it's amazing to see how different a sim can go versus real life.
Conclusion
Which brings us to CC Sabathia. You can see the full spreadsheet of results here (ML stats only). Real-life CC had a 62.0 WAR; only 6 of the 30 in my sim managed 50 or better, so you could say that only about 20% approached the long and successful career of the real thing.
I think that says something about players with long careers. If you have the talent, the potential is always there, but you need good players and coaches around you and probably more than a little luck to last 15+ years. (Just look at Kerry Wood.) When he started his career in 1998, maybe CC only had about a 20% chance of becoming the pitcher that he did. Things fell mostly right for him, and he was successful.
As I look at the latter part of my HOF voting in the 2030s, mostly for guys who started their careers around the same time as CC, so they were completely represented in this sim, it's a mix of guys who are/were good/great (like Justin Morneau), as well as some who definitely weren't (like Kelly Johnson) and some I've never heard of (Bonvechio/Schebler). OOTP isn't a perfect simulation of real life, but I think it shows that greatness has many factors, and the ones who come out on top deserve both respect for their abilities but also have the benefit of good fortune and timing.

Apocalypse: The Story Of My Life (part 1)

I don't know how it was for you, but for me, 2020 was a pretty tough year. In a matter of months, I lost everything. My job. My friends. The life I'd spent an entire lifetime building. And the worst part is, it all started going downhill the day I did something I never do.
I asked for help.
Ever since then, it's been one downward spiral after another. I've seen first hand how quickly the fall to rock bottom can be. And I've come to realize how hard it is starting anew, especially in America. The supposed land of freedom and opportunity.
It's been frustrating, to say the least. And the more time passes, the more it feels like I'm losing my voice. Like the opportunity to tell my own story and validate my own existence is slipping away.
That's why I wanted to do something bold and daring.
A lot's changed since Covid. For the first time in my life, I have no job, no money, no insurance, and no real clue how I'm going to support myself. I don't even know how I'd be able to focus on any of that when I have so much to say about the world and the future we're headed to. Writing is the only way I know how to express myself. It's also one of the few marketable skills I have, so in my darkest hour of desperation, I was praying I could make a living off my words, somehow.
I tried starting a blog. That didn't go so well. There's much more to internet success than creating a website and posting a few decent articles. I'm nowhere near equipped to handle the marketing, advertising, or social media aspect that comes with building a brand. So I migrated my endeavors over to Facebook.
Even worse idea. Suffice to say, not that many people are actually interested in reading long, thoughtful articles over there.
Which brings me to Reddit. Truthfully, I'm just hoping to find a platform where I can tell my story, share the knowledge I have, find a way to rebuild myself, and make the world a better place in process. And I suppose I'll start by telling you about the Apocalypse.
I'll be upfront with you. When this idea first came to me, I was mostly looking for a gimmick. A way to promote myself on other parts of the web. But the more I think about the world ending, the more it occurs to me, that's exactly how I feel. From my perspective, it's as if society (and the world in general) is in freefall and it's been that way for a while. A large part of me is genuinely terrified that THIS is as good as humanity is ever going to get, and I feel obligated to say something. I feel as if I have to fight, I have to educate, and I have to keep hope alive for a better tomorrow.
SOMEBODY has to believe society can change. If not, nothing ever will.
So allow me a few moments to convince you that we are in an Apocalypse.
By no means is this an attempt at fear mongering. I simply have legitimate concerns about the future, I know how to write a decent narrative at times, and I was honestly proud of the work I put into this post, even if nobody read it.
Without further ado, . . .
Hello.
From henceforth, my name is Postuleo Jones.
I am writing to you from my top-secret location because we are in the midst of an Apocalypse. If you allow me just a few minutes of your time, I'll gladly explain to you what I mean. By the time we make it to the end of this document, you'll be armed with knowledge and you'll know exactly what you need to do in order to survive "the stupid".
To adequately explain why we are in an Apocalypse, I'd need to start by telling you the story of things I noticed starting in 2008 when Obama won the presidency. I will do that at some point in time, but for the sake of brevity, I'll explain why I'm going to be brief--
If you were to plot out causality and learn how randomness converges to create order, what we commonly refer to as 'cause and effect', you'd inevitably end up with something that looks like a graph. If you were to translate that graph and all of its meaning into a working model, you'd get a theory. There are several theories out there that attempt to describe chaos, but I'm going to use one that I made up, one that I'll expand upon in days to come.
According to this theory, by the time you notice the effect of something, logically you need to assume it's because the cause has already happened. Most of what I'd be doing by recapping 2008 would be highlighting a series of causes. A linear progression of observations. And by the time I got to 2020, I would have spent the past narrative explaining to you why we are in the Apocalypse, NOW--And that's one thing about the Apocalypse. Once you notice it, you need to assume it's because it's started.
Once it's started, you need to assume it will continue (aka it will annihilate you). And once you make that assumption, you need to adjust.
Immediately.
Because there's one thing in life that will always remain true; the Universe WILL NOT WAIT for you.
Now, something you need to know is, adjusting does not involve giving in to humanity's more basic instincts. In every Apocalypse movie/television series you have ever seen, once a causative factor has been identified (usually in the form of zombies [both radioactive and benign]), society almost immediately devolves into chaos and disorder.
As tempting as it is, and as easy as it is to succumb to what will henceforth be known as "the stupid", you must resist the urge. Chaos and anarchy might help you survive an Apocalypse, but it doesn't end one. And considering the nature of the Apocalypse we are in, one that centers firmly around stupidity, the best thing you can do--in fact the only thing you can do if you really want the Apocalypse to end--is be intelligent.
I am going to assume that you are intelligent. And because you are intelligent, I won't waste your time documenting the chain of events that have led us to now. If you have been watching the news or tuned in to the Donald Trump presidency, then you have already witnessed much of the causal stream.
Instead, I'm going to spend my time convincing you of WHEN the effect of "the stupid" became apparent to me. It was right after I told the truth. Because I chose to be honest, I was forced to enter the system. I ended up losing my job, most of my friends, and I contemplated the idea of suicide. I kept reaching out to folks only to discover that no one would help me, and somewhere along the way, I discovered the answer to the Fermi Paradox.
I know why there are no great alien civilizations. I know exactly what the great filter is. Suffice to say, you can boil it down to ignorance, greed, and selfishness. All signs that a lifeform is supremely un-intelligent.
Shortly after realizing the knowledge I'd gained, I set about thinking on how I could share this insight with those around me. And without warning, I get on social media. I tune into the news, and I hear there are reports of an unknown virus making its way through China.
Within weeks, this novel and extremely deadly Coronavirus traveled across the globe, infecting thousands and killing hundreds. . .
There was a movie about this, once.
Contagion.
I never saw it, but when it came out back in 2011, I would have sworn we made a big fuss about understanding the dangers of a biological threat and the need for proactive safety measures. I could have sworn the USA said that if there were a pandemic, it would be a crises because America would use the latest technology, science, and data available to eliminate any threat. I even wanna say there was a bunch of feel good commercials made about it, or at the very least, there was talk about America's perceived "preparedness" on television.
Not just that. There was the movie Rise of the Planet of the Apes staring James Franco. Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the ending, didn't some guy who was infected with a virus get on a plane? Then the movie cut to an animated visual depicting just how quickly the virus went on to infect multiple locations due to air travel?
Point is, the moment there was a new virus and we all gawked instead of realizing it was going to spread, was the moment we all f**ked up.
Thus we entered the Stupidity Apocalypse.
Part of why the virus initially spread so quickly was because it used our nursing homes (filled with our most vulnerable) as kindling. The problems with nursing homes in America are vast, most of them stem from being understaffed and underserved. These are issues we have been aware of but neglected for decades, and I'm almost willing to bet at a certain point, there just wasn't enough staff, attention, nor care available to even assess or notice that our elderly were being attacked.
In fact, much of the pandemic panic didn't really set in until the virus started affecting normal, healthy folk. When the average citizen went, "Oh, shit! I might actually suffer and get pneumonia and possibly die!"
And let's be clear. Covid-19 was devastating because it caused pneumonia and respiratory distress . . . even though Influenza causes pneumonia. Pneumocystis Jirovecii causes pneumonia. Pneumococcal pneumonia causes pneumonia. COPD can lead to pneumonia. So can heart disease, kidney disease, liver disease, vascular disease, and even cancer.
Aspiration of food or other caustic substances can cause pneumonia. So can inhalation of debris (think coal dust from mining or the particulate from factory work).
A whole lot of things can cause pneumonia, and if you were to gather the statistics, you'd see that close to 1 million people (50,000 in the US) die from pneumonia each year. And much of that is likely preventable. Yet, all I could hear at the start of this pandemic was how nobody really cared about the suffering pneumonia caused. Not once did we acknowledge how widespread and ubiquitous the condition actually is. The headlines were all about the poor souls affected by Covid and how serious their health was.
Eventually, we were asked to stay at home, and eventually, we (especially folks within the media) started harassing and making fun of those who violated the early lockdown orders.
But, let's pause to analyze that, for a second.
We live in a culture where most Americans don't have enough savings to handle a life crises and are living paycheck to paycheck. Which sort of implies you have to earn your paycheck. You have to show up for work. Many companies do have an oral policy urging workers to stay home if they are feeling unwell. And considering the massive legal teams some companies hire, I'm sure there is an accompanying written policy buried in a handbook somewhere.
But what do you do when the standard operating procedure is, "if you don't show up for work, you're fired!"?
I've had a job like that. Three absences in a rolling calendar year, regardless of the circumstance, meant you were instantly terminated. And it wasn't that easy to adjust or get access to PPE (personal protective equipment, i.e. face masks) in the beginning.
This doesn't even tackle the issue of the self-employed or the hustler who has to go out and earn their money on a daily basis to make a living.
Next, there's the issue of social distancing and the violation of civic responsibility for those that were seen out in public with no mask. I saw s many touting their masks and sitting all high and mighty on their high horse when the pandemic first started. But not a single soul acknowledge the fact that America waited until a pandemic to make an attempt to be responsible. No one acknowledged that we have a flu season EVERY year.
EVERY YEAR there are literally millions of preventable flu infections, millions of hospital visits, millions of dollars wasted, and thousands of deaths, all outcomes that could have been prevented had Americans bothered to use masks, socially distance, and wash their hands before now. This is a simple practice that other, more developed countries, cultures, and societies have been following for years, and it's likely a huge part of why they've had a better overall handle of this pandemic.
But in America, this conversation, this acknowledgment, this chance to think and do better, never happened. Another opportunity shrouded by the stupid.
We then went through several months of folks blaming the government because others couldn't stay inside. We went through several months of folks blaming the government for the misinformation, although no one was trying all that hard to educate. And we also went through several months talking about how difficult it was for our frontline workers and our first responders.
We showed how overworked our hospitals were, how tired the staff was, and how we were running out of beds. But we never did mention that, even prior to Covid, our hospitals were already scheduled to have an increased occupancy thanks to the season flu.
You know, that things that's totally preventable.
We didn't mention that a good portion of why we are in this mess today is because the healthcare system has neglected to spend the past few years educating the masses.
To this day, there is rampant misinformation about vaccines, about diseases and the cause of sickness, and most people don't seem to have any real grasp of biology, pathology, or pathogenesis. So it's no wonder there was such a hard time getting the public to trust the science when the public lacked the education to even realize they needed to be trusting.
Why is why I find the conversation about vaccines so darn hilarious.
Of course there was no antiviral created to effectively treat Covid. Let's face it. Pharmaceutical companies increasingly spend more of their money on marketing and advertising, trying to get the name of their drug or the idea that it will help into your mind so you will know to look for it and ask your physician to prescribe it.
Yes, these companies do engage in research and development. But if you were to take a look at all the drugs we have and order them based on drug class and category, what you'd likely find is that most drug companies spend most of their efforts studying an already well-known compound (likely one they created). They tweak the drug a bit to produce slightly less side effects that are "statistically significant" without necessarily being beneficial. Or they find a new way to administer the drug or a way to increase its therapeutic length. All changes that allow them to renew their patent and charge a f**K ton of money for the 'new' development.
Not much interest is paid to creating completely new treatments, and I doubt drug companies have the incentive or the expertise for that. Your best bet for truly remarkable, breakthrough science lies with the creative and bright minds of PHd and Masters students who would love to engage in independent, discovery driven research at our universities and colleges. But do to a lack of government grants and the general disinterest in education that has swept the nation (plus higher education's increasing reliance on wealthy benefactors and athletic income), I don't think there's going to be a pill to treat covid anytime soon.
And I have to add this. While I was on Instagram and Facebook, I saw A LOT of memes and messages going around from nurses depicting what it was like being in an ICU hooked up to a ventilator. The consensus was, living with a mask is nothing compared to how you will be treated in the hospital, and I damn near lost my mind.
For starters, before I was drop kicked on my ass onto the outskirts of society, I was a nurse. I worked in a Long Term Acute Care Hospital. If you don't know what that is, it's basically a facility that specializes in treating patient whose condition (either acute, chronic, or both) will necessitate a longer length of stay.
Your average patient in an acute hospital--think any Methodist or Memorial Hermann. Rather, think 'any time you to go the ER', because Emergency Rooms are typically the main access point to hospital care. When you're admitted, assuming your condition warrants is, you become an 'inpatient' in the Acute care setting. The typical length of stay can be anywhere between 2-5 days. After which time, you are discharged.
This does depend on your diagnosis, as in the reason you were admitted. Insurance companies pay a set amount based on your primary diagnosis, and that covers expenses for a set number of days, meaning it is pretty much expected that you will be discharged and tasked with managing your own care. That's exactly why we hand you those discharge packets fill of instructions that most never even bother to read. (And why would you? It's boring, it's uninspired, and mostly, it just tells you a bunch of facts and rationales without actually teaching you anything).
Anyway, let's assume that the reason you were admitted to the hospital is because you had a heart attack. But because of your poor diet, lack of exercise, and noncompliance with your blood pressure medication because you only take it when you feel like your pressure is high . . . Let's assume all of this and let's say that your heart attack was pre-scheduled. Meaning, you were diagnosed with heart failure some odd years ago, you have been getting treated for it, but overtime your body has decompensated. The vascular damage has accumulated. It's mostly remained hidden because the doctor is expensive, you haven't been going to your primary to complain, and thus you weren't referred for a screening exam.
No medical professional was looking to tell you that you were on your way to a massive heart attack. One that would provide inadequate profusion for such a long period of time that it caused irreparable damage to your brain from lack of oxygen.
You aren't getting out of the hospital anytime soon. You might stay in the ICU for a week. Maybe two or three. But when you are stable, you will be transferred to a more appropriate facility, one where you will 'theoretically' be supplied with a sort of built-in therapy service. You might stay at this facility, depending on how well it takes you to improve and what that quality of improvement looks like, anywhere from a few weeks, to a few months, to a few years.
That's the sort of facility I worked at.
We took care of patient with heart failure, strokes, kidney disease, and end stage lung disease, and basically, I know a thing or two about caring for patients on a ventilator.
No. Ventilators are not comfortable. And I don't just mean from a 'having to be on one' perspective. Having a tube down your throat, having a machine force air into your lungs, being hooked onto monitors and hearing beeps and lights and alarms and now knowing which one of those means you're about to suddenly feel like you can't breathe and. . . . None of that is fun.
Then having some air-head nurse come in and look at you like you're panicking, then take her sweet ass time getting a respiratory therapist because she can't be bothered to suction your herself, and waiting for a respiratory therapist to come and slide a plastic catheter down your throat, literally suck the air from your lungs just so you can cough up some mucous before they give you a breathing treatment--All of that when the entire time you might have just been anxious, and a single shot of Ativan or that nurse just paying attention or better yet, staying with you, talking to you, and suctioning you herself when she hear you cough a bit earlier when she was passing her meds, but she was too busy at the time. . .
None of that is fun, but that's the reality I dealt with every time I went to work. If you actually knew what it was like being stuck in the hospital, you'd know that getting well can be a lonely and extremely unpleasant experience. And it's sad to me that here we are, in the middle of a pandemic and previously undiagnosed stupidity Apocalypse, and we are literally using healthcare as a threat in order to get people to stay home.
What the actual F**K?
Anyway, that's how we came to rely on a vaccine.
Folks were arguing because Donald Trump was being too optimistic touting BS medical trials and over-promising on medications. When that didn't pan out, everyone (and I mostly mean everyone on the news and on Capitol Hill) began putting their stock in a vaccine to fix Covid.
The second people started talking about a vaccine, however, my mind was like, "So what? Who's going to take it? And how are you going to convince them?
Watching the political back and forth during the Trump presidency, I witnessed how tribal and polarized the conversations surrounding vaccinations and healthcare have become. It seems like a lot of Republicans didn't really believe the science that vaccines work. Either that, or they think their kid won't get a disease. And if their kid does get sick, as long as they end up being fine, who cares if they pass it on to a more vulnerable population?
I'm speculating on this, but this is the argument I most often see posed by those on the Democratic side.
That said, a lot Democrats don't really believe in vaccines, either. A large portion, aka the vocal minority who talks the most, screams the loudest, and therefore gets the most attention (basically those Democrats who love calling Republicans stupid), assuming they don't use the excuse of not having access to healthcare, they likely get vaccinated. Passively, too. I mean, if you work in certain career fields, your job might even offer free annual immunizations. These careers tend to lean more Democratic. The jobs Republicans typically work might not offer immunizations, so that might be another reason Republicans lean more towards pro choice?
Point is, A LOT of America doesn't actually believe in vaccinations. This is pretty interesting because it has more to do with profound lack of understanding and trust than anything else.
Despite vaccines having data to back their effectiveness, despite the fact that humanity eradicated small pox from the face of the Earth using vaccines, and despite the logic that if you completely rid yourself of a virus by vaccinating everyone and everything against it such that the virus has no natural host and can therefore no longer exist. . .
Despite all of that, the average person doesn't really comprehend the need for a vaccination because hey, even thought we have a flu vaccine and they tell you to get that every year, the flu is still a around.
Actually, wait a minute. How come I have to get the flu vaccine ever year? It must not be effective since all of those other vaccines only need one shot to work. But I'm supposed to get the flu shot EVERY year? Pass!! I heard the flu shot can make you sick, anyway. And what's the point in getting it if I might still get the flu? No, I think I'll wait until they actually know what they are doing with those vaccines. But even then, I've never had the flu. And nobody gets those other diseases anymore unless there's an outbreak. If only those people were more careful, we wouldn't be having all these viruses!
So, I don't really have to do anything. Like, I'm okay with the flu vaccine, and I think everyone should get it if these companies ever figure out what their doing. But if I don't get one, that's fine. Them Republicans though, how dare they! At least I WOULD get vaccinated if I had the chance. But those Republicans making a fuss talking about, "I don't think the government should be able to tell me what to do with my body and with my child!"
Just like they be tryna tell females what they can do with their uterus.
You see?
Either way it goes, everyone has some reason why they don't want to get vaccinated, and that's why American's vaccination rates have been decreasing over time. this wasn't helped when every single morning show was inviting celebrities to spout misinformation about vaccines, linking them to autism a decade ago when that particular wave of stupidity hit.
Or do you not remember?
I mean, seriously. It was on talk shows. Morning shows. Radio. The news. Everywhere! And we were all just laughing and calling people idiots at the time saying how dumb could they be? All the while we saw just how many people were willing to follow just because someone famous told them to. We saw how easily people's opinions could be swayed, and I'm sure the medical community squeaked out a poot just to say all the lies around vaccines stank.
In fact, I knew they did. In regards to the paper linking vaccines to Autism, that study was proven to be flawed, and the medical community went on record saying vaccines were safe and effective. If you go back and look, there might've even been talk about re-enforcing or re-educating the public about vaccine guidelines. But that was it.
A whole lot of stupid has been tossed around since then, and the general population is still incredibly ignorant. As much as I would like to blame the government for this, I'm putting this squarely on the shoulders of healthcare. On every single doctor, nurse, healthcare administrator, or whoever had the opportunity to speak to the media and not once did they think to start a campaign to combat the massive amount of medical unintelligence I just described.
So who cares about a vaccine when I could have told you last year that half the country wouldn't even want to get it?
This has something to do with the cognitive dilemmas I laid out, but it also has to do with plan logistics. I mean, as contagious as the Covid-19 was/is, and as quickly as it was/is mutating, you'd want to make sure that any countermeasures you had were absolute. You'd want to eliminate it, basically. And if you only available weapon was a vaccine, you'd need everyone to theoretically be vaccinated.
In order for that to happen, you know you'd have to make vaccinations mandatory. Even IF the coronavirus was a deadly-flesh-eating-monster-forming-mutant-machine of a virus, people wouldn't voluntarily get a vaccine because people are hard-headed, and it's obvious if you've been paying attention to society. At one point, I even saw a news headline saying only 30% of Americans said they would get the vaccine when it became commercially available.
That should have woken everyone up. But it didn't. This is exactly why the government, the medical profession, and the media should have done more to actually educate folks about the science. And I’m literally talking about the science. Like, have an animated model and a YouTube professor or someone talking about the chemistry, how the molecules in the body interact, and how every little component in a vaccine comes together in order to produce a freaking vaccine that works.
Had any of that been done at the start of Corona, we might not be as far behind as we are now.
So yeah, our only hope for getting back to normal is with a vaccine that nobody wants to take. And now that it's out and I’ve had a chance to peek at the science, and I’m honestly impressed. Mostly because it is a new technology. But we are still having problems with the roll out.
I know everyone was blaming that on the in-effective Trump government. But A) government is made up of much, much more than just one person, and B) one of the first things that pissed me off about the government (and all of America for that matter) is the fact that we even thought we had a chance of resolving this crisis through a vaccinations.
In addition to the lack of trust and the general 'don’t f**kin give it to me' attitude we have surrounding vaccines, no one in government seemed to question how we'd effectively complete such a massive roll out in the first place. I mean, considering how effectively we can produce flu vaccines and yet there is no coordinated effort at mass vaccination. Considering there are preventable diseases all across the world, and a lot of these diseases in countries that would LOVE to have access to a vaccines as part of humanitarian aid.
Considering there has been no real practice and no real giving a damn about how you'd distribute a theoretically mandatory vaccine to literally millions of people in a small enough time frame for it to actually make a difference. . . . These are things you should have been thinking about when COVID first happened. Hell, these are things that should have been in place PRIOR to Covid.
I thought about this in what, May? June? And I was miffed I didn’t hear anybody else asking these questions, nor did I hear anyone offering up answers. And I mean answers in terms of, "Explain to me how the you did all the shit I said you did, and now you’re going to try and convince me that you know what you’re doing, even though you don’t even seem to understand that everything you did is the exact reason why where in this mess . . . "
Ugh, whatever.
It was obvious the vaccines roll-out was going to be a challenge. And I know Biden and Kamala have a “plan” to fix that, but I haven’t heard what the plan is to deal with my following concerns.
First, it concerns me that the CDC is counting on herd immunity to protect is from future Covid infections. I forgot what the exact number is to achieve herd immunity, but I want to say it's when 70% of the population is vaccinated. That’s been great for the CDC, because they’re thinking (and by thinking I mean planning) on only having to vaccinate half of the 70% they need in order to reach immunity.
Why? Well, the CDC said it will only have to do half the work, only have to reach 35% of the population, because the other 35% are just gonna get Covid. Covid comes with -10 breathing, -2 fatigue, and +10% chance of dying, but hey, you get bonus immunity from infections, so it works out.
Basically, America’s current tactic is, let’s hurry up and do half the work so that way we'll know all of the work is complete. ^ _ ^
America! How are you realistically going to achieve herd immunity when that is entirely dependent upon people getting a voluntary vaccine that they might not want to receive? Not just that, but why do you think that’s an achievable goal when we've been struggling to reach herd immunity against the viruses we already have vaccines for? And morbidly, what about the remaining 30%? You need to assume you don’t know who it will be or what sort of factors will influence their decision to be unvaccinated.
Hypothetically, what if the remaining 30%, the ones who are unvaccinated, what if they were all vulnerable? Through some mysterious circumstances, what if it turns out that if they catch Covid, they will get sick and die almost immediately before you ever get the chance to save them. And let’s assume that, for unknown reasons, the remaining 30% somehow find a way to connect each other, to keep the line of infectious transmission going. All of that is a creative metaphorical way of saying, let’s assume that they all just get Covid and expire. That’s a whole lot of people who are potentially at risk, and level of risk should never be a progressive society's goal.
Secondly, and this is going to be a two-parter, let’s say we fix America’s roll-out, and according to the government’s plan, we achieve heard immunity and everything’s back to normal by July. Well, that’s great for America, but some countries are having difficulties gaining access to a vaccine.
I read a news article the other day talking about the trouble South America has been having getting the vaccine. Fortunately for them, Russia has been able to provide some assistance. The Russian vaccine isn’t recommended by the CDC or the WHO or something like that, likely because Russia was being secret about their data. But Russia isn’t stupid. If you think Russia tampers with its data, that’s great because it means Russia doesn’t have to do anything but actually create an effective vaccine, and you did all the hard work of spying on your on un-intelligence about it.
I honestly don’t know if Russia’s vaccine is effective, or if it will be as effective as the vaccines America manufactures. But that really doesn’t matter. As long as it prevents Covid from spreading in Latin America, those countries are going to remember who helped them in the middle of a pandemic.
Russia has already achieved its goal of exerting power on the global stage, and to be frank, they didn’t really have to try all that hard. Not just that, but there’s more opportunity in it for them. Africa is another one of those places that's having trouble getting access to vaccines. I was reading another article literally today, and parts of Africa might not have access to a vaccine till 2022 or 2023. How much you wanna bet Russia knows this? How much you wanna bet Russia is going to help Africa with its supply problem? That’d be the first thing I’d do if I was an evil, mustache wearing, mustache twirling dictator who could only do things for the lolz.
And that’s what leads us down to point two. Part of what made Covid so tricky in the first place was just how quickly it was mutating, and it still is mutating. There are newer, deadlier strains cropping up in Africa, and you don’t know how many new strains will appear, what sort of mutations they will have, and how deadly the virus will become before you can get enough vaccines to halt its course.
That being said, so far our vaccines test out to be effective against a couple of different strains of the virus. But what happens when there’s a strain that the vaccine doesn’t grant immunity to? As long as it exists, it will inevitably spread. And if I have to remind you of why, go back and read the two movie titles I listed, and start reading this entire post again from there because obviously haven't been following with me.
If a new, resistant strain were to come over here to America, and we'd be right back in the same position . . . maybe. That’s another point of contention I have.
What does the CDC think is normal? What does anyone in government think is normal? I’m thinking of total eradication of the virus, but as it stands right now, I wouldn’t be surprised if Covid just stuck around as part of our seasonal “flu” package. If that’s the case, it might not be so bad. The flu only kills what, thousands of people EACH year. Add a few thousand more deaths from Covid, and overtime, as long as we’re not in a pandemic anymore, who cares? (I do, because that means we’re still in the stupidity Apocalypse)
So let’s say Covid just sticks around and comes back every year. That’s all well and good until it mutates. And it will mutate into something that is likely extremely infectious and extremely deadly (because every time a virus mutates against a current vaccine, that’s what happens. That’s pretty much the only direction it can mutate in).
When that happens, depending on how infectious Covid ends up being, how lacks we’ve become with our ‘herd immunity’, and how much of a cluster f**k our response time ends up being, you’d be looking at a MASSIVE pandemic. Like, instantaneously MASSIVE. Because you won’t be expecting a thing, and the public will have gotten so used to Covid, there might not be enough fear to immediately modify behavior.
And this sort of failure and inability to respond to an infectious agent scares me because, look at how much fuss we kicked up about this virus being new. About it being novel.
Back when this first came, scientist new absolutely nothing about it . . . although they could tell you what it was called, what it looked like, what family of viral particle it was in, etc. Look at how the world responded to Covid, something that was previously ‘unknown’.
Problem is, there are actually viruses, bacteria, fungi, and other pathological agents out there that are genuinely unknown. Here’s the thing. There is region of our globe near the poles that remains cold year round. In that cold, frigid climate, there are patches of eco system that contain something called permafrost.
Permafrost is called that because the natural environmental conditions come together to make sure the ground remains permanently frozen.
For millions of years, life has been crawling all around the permafrost and just being life until one day, it up and dies. Not necessarily because it was hunted. Not even because it was wounded. It just died because it got an infection. And there it laid, on the cold, hard ground with its germs. And the ground was like, “Shit, baby you hot! Let me go on ahead a freeze you!”
And the ground does this. Really fast. Such to the point that, some things inside that dead body (like those organism causing the infection) don’t even have time to realize their dead. They flash freeze. Either that, or there’s just enough time for some crafty bacteria to make endospores. You can think of endospores as seeds. Bacterial seeds that are hella resistant to environmental changes. And just like a seed, an endospore will wait until conditions are right. Then it will bloom.
The conditions are right when humans get so greedy and stupid, they heat up the climate, start melting millions of years of permafrost, some lonely carcass gets unfrozen and accidentally discovered by some animal or some human. That bacteria that didn’t know it was dead comes back to life, and guess what? It has no competition.
It has no competition because that bacteria was frozen 2 million years ago. No one needed to develop an immune response to it, so as far as it's concerned, every single last one of you is fresh meat. And you will truly not know a thing about it until its already infected you and spread.
Talk about antibiotic resistance. Good luck trying to save people when you don’t know how to detect it, you don't know what kills it, and you don't know how it's transmitted or it's disease progression. I bring this up because it's one of the lesser known threats posed by climate change. I bring this up because last I checked, our scientists had already warned us that if we didn't change our behavior soon, we were going to cause positive feedback loop, and there'd be nothing we could do to stop it.
You might have more hope for the future than I do. Then again, I haven't talking about the economic impact of Covid. I haven't talked about the mental health crises it sparked. I haven't talked about the shocking number of students who failed to thrive with the switch to online learning, and I haven't talked about lingering ghosts of racism or the insurrection on the Capitol.
I've left so much out of this conversation, yet it's still long and I still have the nerve to call it an introduction.
It's hard to believe we might be facing the end of the world. Not when our society looks like this . . .? (This is the part where you look around ominously, and suddenly you realized it's ominous)
But unfortunately, all of the problems I can see really are baked into the cake of how we think about society and how we participate in our civilization. And as hopeful as people are for the future, no one seems to really believe that society can change.
So if you'll allow me, that's what I want to talk about with this story.
Life. How I learned to appreciate it so fiercely, and why I'm fighting to make it better.
Or at the very least, why I'm fighting to be heard and have my experiences acknowledged.

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Ford vs Ferrari Part 1 - Greasing the Wheels

GME Tribe: A Story About How Ryan Cohen is About to Kick Down Sherman's Door and Drink His Milkshake 🚀🚀🚀

The chances of any male aged 15-39 starting for a team in their national domestic league - an analysis of 11 Leagues.

The Assumptions

Method

Limitations

Leagues to look at

New Caledonia

Turks and Caicos Islands

Tahiti

Luxembourg

Liechtenstein

St.Kitts and Nevis

Andorra

Faroe Islands

Gibraltar

San Marino

Monserrat

Bonus

The Vatican City

Conclusion

28 year old, Accounting Consultant: I want to retire young so I can dedicate my time actually giving back to the world compared to my accounting consulting job.

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Ended my gambling career (for now) on a high note - jackpot handpay to end 2020. My thoughts and ramblings as a now-retired gambler.

Stocks to watch next week based on screening and settings I use personally - Food for thought

Stating the obvious - Bearish on DASH, (too long) case and risk defined option approaches

First a Chart...

Bullish On DoorDash

Bearish On DoorDash

Brand Loyalty

Turning a profit?

Restaurants are better

So let's short the stock!

Buy Puts

Buy a Put Spread

Sell a Call Spread

Put on a Poor Man's Covered Put (ok, a diagonal)

TL;DR - Bearish on DoorDash

Deshaun Watson ESPN+ Article

I put a clone of 17-year-old CC Sabathia on all 30 MLB teams in 1998 and simmed their careers

Apocalypse: The Story Of My Life (part 1)

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