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Le Bilan - Ligue 1 Matchday 8 : The East Awakens
After a suboptimal first week in european competitions for the french clubs (1W, 1D, 3L), it was time to go back to domestic affairs. On paper, not a lot of must see matches but still two exciting features on sunday with Nice-Lille and Lyon-Monaco.
Appetizers
Rennes was beaten at home on friday night against Angers and it was far from undeserved. Despite a rather early goal from Hunou following a mistake from Bernardoni, the bretons couldn't capitalize and conceded an equalizer by the forever hope Sofiane Boufal. In the second half, it was even Angers who dominated Rennes, not in term of possession which was still in favour of the home team, but in clear chances created. Which in the end is what matters the most. And they were rewarded at the 57th minute with an astute lob from Angelio Fulgini. Rennes captain Damien Da Silva was unfortunately involved on both goals, on the first with a deflection, on the second he was weak on the duel. Rennes hasn't won in their last 4 matches (3 at home), even though the opponents weren't particularly scary (Reims, Dijon, Krasnodar, Angers).
Marseille seems to be finding their rythm. Maybe. At least in the league. With a second straight win over Lorient, Marseille reaches again the european spots. Of course it was quite far from a stellar performance and the only goal came from an individual error from Lorient's goalkeeper but at least it allowed the newcomer Leonardo Balerdi to score his first goal for OM. it may not be what's expected from him as a center back but it's still something you won't complain about.
What looked like a standard, boring 2-0 win for Paris became a bit more glittering with the two late Mbappé goals but clearly there's not much to talk about this match, the gap between the champion and Dijon being perhaps the bigger in the league. Moise Kean opened his counter under his new colours, and even twice.
After a big loss 4-0 at home against their rival Lille, Lens decided to go all-in and focus on the COVID Championship. And they did it in style with 11 cases in one day. Of course their match against Nantes was postponed.
Montpellier completely crumbled at home at the hands of Reims. For the fourth time in a row, the southerners didn't win and fall in the 11th place. But not only did they lose, they lost 4-0 against a team that hadn't won yet in Ligue 1. Of course the 2 red cards (in pure Ligue 1 style) certainly helped the Champagne team but still, it must feel good to open the counter like this. And for Boulaye Dia, author of a hat-trick, it was both a collective and individual satisfaction.
It's not often that we have something positive to say about Bordeaux so let's not waste an opportunity. Although it took long to open the score, it was fully deserved as the Girondins dominated quite significantly the second half after a rather shy first 45 minutes. Ben Arfa obtained a penalty that Jimmy Briand scored, making it his 100th goal in Ligue 1, the 88th player to pass this bar. Two minutes later, Oudin doubled the score and Nîmes tapped out.
After three straight losses, Strasbourg had no choice but to wake up. And they did, away in Brest by winning 3-0 with an opening goal from the new recruit Habib Diallo, his second in two matches since his arrival. Diallo even offered an assist to Ajorque for the third Strasbourg goal, another sign that he has integrated the group well. A much needed addition for a team that was the shell of its former self up to now.
The Europaleaguico between Nice and Lille didn't necessarily produced the expected result. After Nice got manhandled by Bayer Leverkusen 6-2 while Lille comfortably beat Sparta Prague 4-1, it would have been bold to bet on anything but a Lille victory. In fact it was a fairly even fixture and both teams got their moments. Kasper Dolberg opened the goal following a great collective move and an assist from Claude-Maurice. Eight minutes later, Burak Yılmaz equalized beautifully. Lille loses their top spot reclaimed by Paris for the first time this season.
After weeks of having troubles finishing their chances, Lyon balanced their statistical anomaly in the most spectacular way. By letting completely the game responsability to Monaco, they aspired the visitors and launched deadly counterattacks. It may not be what's expected from a juggernaut like Lyon from a tactical point of view (and it's enough to hear from Lyon fans to understand how controversial this way of playing is, even with a victory) but it was damn efficient. They scored four goals in the first half with only 28% of the ball, with Memphis Depay providing another masterclass and Karl Toko Ekambi, symbol of Lyon's inefficiency since two months, finally demonstrating his usefulness. On the other side of the pitch, Monaco is still looking like a team that we don't know what to expect from. But certainly not this.
1-2 Champions League group stage 3 Champions League qualifiers round 3 4 Europa League group stage 5 Europa Conference League group stage 18 Relegation play-offs 19-20 Relegation to Ligue 2
FC Metz : Good period for the club from Lorraine. With their home win over Saint-Étienne, the Grenats are on a much more positive path than the one they were on five weeks ago. Metz started the season with three straight losses on the same frustrating 1-0 score but since then they haven't lost once, winning all their three home games and drawing away in Marseille and Angers. Two weeks ago, their head coach Frédéric Antonetti came back from personal leave that started almost two years ago to stay close to his wife who unfortunately passed away this summer. Though he was still involved in the club from his corsican home, it was Vincent Hognon who was officially leading the team. With Antonetti's return, Hognon left the club without drama. After losing Habib Diallo on the last day of the transfer window and Ibrahima Niane due to an ACL, Metz has seemingly found ways to overcome those obstacles thus far.
Downwards
AS Saint-Étienne : Take what was said above with Metz, reverse it and voilààà ! It's easy to write Le Bilan. Still let's go into the details. Last year, after a disastrous start, Claude Puel was appointed to save the club, no less. In a recent interview, Puel said the club was going "in the wall". So this summer he cleaned house and destroyed the core of influential players that was impeding the team (Ruffier, Mvila, Boudebouz, Khazri) either by making them leave or irrelevant regarding the future. The start of the season was a total success with three 2-0 wins. Unfortunately, those are still the only victorie sobtained by the Forez club. After a draw in Nantes, les Verts have lost their last four matches with only one goal scored and 10 conceded. Of course, Puel's project fundamentally can not have immediate consistent results given the number of young players involved (the defence against Metz was on average 20,5 years old). And obviously, selling Wesley Fofana on the last day didn't help. But the confidence has to come back somehow to get back on the right track. Two weeks before the Derby, the clock is ticking.
It's a very good match for us, I'm very happy. In a stadium like this, with the wind and rain, it gives a small advantage to those playing at home. But we've mastered the game. It's a very good collective performance, offensively and defensively. We missed being a little bit more incisive to score earlier. It's a very good win for us, a deserved win.
Thomas Tuchel, Paris coach :
Marquinhos is the heart and soul of our team. That's why he has to play at the center of the game. But also because he is talented. He has all the quality to be a midfielder, in addition to his working-class mentality. In the midfield, he can help both defenders and forwards. It is important that he is close to everyone because he is the leader. Marqui has the best volume of the team, he is valuable in counter-pressing.
Claude Puel, Saint-Étienne coach :
Metz deserves its victory. We make a gift from the very first minutes and that makes us fragile. These are things that are difficult to accept and give the opposing team confidence. But it was important to start well, to put in a good intensity. It took us a long time to resurface, we were on the back foot and we didn't dare, we didn't try.
Jean-Louis Gasset, Bordeaux coach :
We make catastrophic starts and everything we work during the week, we can't find it. When we play like in the second half, with drive, technical mastery, crosses, opportunities, at least we enjoy it. We win, we lose, but we enjoy ourselves and we play our football. But before that, seeing a shy team in an empty stadium is a horror.
Patrick Vieira, Nice coach :
We were affected by the defeat in Leverkusen in the Europa League. The reaction was very positive. We must continue to work and believe in our strength. We are still in the process of discovering ourselves. The players don't yet imagine what their collective strength can be. For the Lille reception, the message was to raise our head and play with a lot of personality.
Niko Kovac, Monaco coach :
We really made some bad decisions in the first period, and I was the first. I include myself in this because I didn't choose the right system, the right tactics, the right players. We had a lot of problems because we were more in reaction than in action. We didn't cover the spaces when we had to. It was a pretty incredible first period, I'd never seen anything like it, I told my players that. At the break, I asked them to win the second period, and they did. Even though that first act was really, really bad.
6 matches without a loss, 3 clean sheets in a row, who knew we had to go down one division to find our level ?
Next matchday
Friday 30/10, 21:00 Olympique de Marseille - RC Lens Saturday 31/10, 17:00 Stade Rennais - Stade Brestois Saturday 31/10, 21:00 FC Nantes - Paris Saint-Germain Sunday 01/11, 13:00 AS Saint-Étienne - Montpellier HSC Sunday 01/11, 15:00 Angers SCO - OGC Nice Dijon FCO - FC Lorient Nîmes Olympique - FC Metz Stade de Reims - RC Strasbourg Sunday 01/11, 17:00 AS Monaco - Girondins de Bordeaux Sunday 01/11, 21:00 Lille OSC - Olympique Lyonnais Thanks a lot to Hippemann for all the clips and the tables ! For more news about the best league in the world (except for the other four) and to improve your french, come and subscribe to /Ligue1. All feedbacks are welcome ! Previous matchdays : Season 2020-2021 M1 - M2 - M3 - M4 - M5 - M6 - M7 Season 2019-2020 M12 - M13 - M14 - M15 - M16 - M17 - M18 - M19 - M20 - M21 - M22 - M23 - M24 - M25 - M26 - M27 - M28
Testing testing; check one two – DWT is live once again on Reddit! Terrific, terrific stuff Alas – promotion has remained minimal; and well - for good reason. The run of form, quite frankly - a disgrace and an embarrassment. But now we're here, its apparent the types of scenarios that can now become a reality...from the depths she appeared; the wondrous Good Ship DWT! Hoozah! Thats a ways off tbf - but still; a possible journey. I hear ye's - as much as lying in the gutter strewn with mud and bin juice is; but thats just it - the price for failure is unforgiving and henceforth motivational on its own. One can sit on a wee bench innocently mulling over the lack of success and just brush it off with a wee shrug of the shoulders afore chomping into his chicken, bacon and salad wrap. No bother. A wee taste of the murk in your beverage however and that bitterness soon becomes a grudge to bear and no mistake. We're unwittingly dipping our toe into the shark-infested waters. Exploration - whilst riveting and awe-inspiring - can be a treacherous wee prick at times. The emphasis as always remains on the musings; now settled back, buckled up and properly accepting of the fact that the failure chair will oft be home; you can really settle into being reflective, wondersome and contemplative. Tbh - thats all I ever have been; life often in the past has been about explaining why not more engaged physically - one of lifes observers I guess. The ethos of the modern era - phones and laptops and the internet and so on - thats the place I've been anticipating for manys a year prior. No in the sense of 'I thought of all this afore it happened' or owt - just in terms of how comfy I feel in life. A bunch of pish I used to let dissuade me from engaging now no longer an issue owing to the issue no existing in the first place. Fascinating it all is and was, these antiquated methods utlised by folks gone by; no just the common every day stuff, but the wee tricks that becaome available, whereby you could take advantage at will. The clockwork like methodology presented loopholes aplenty for the advantage-taking honour-lacking arseholes of the time. Things were easier and less worrisome in their consequence - envelopes were pushed often well beyond breaking point. You see it now in the form of riots and gang attacks and all that sort of stuff; but dinnae let the prevalence of it today let you think it didnae happen in fucking abundance back then - terrible terrible shite brushed under many many carpets. Houses we all dwell in today, each with skeletons in their closets - which at the time didnae seem that big a deal; it was just how it was. Today bears the burden of trying to sift through the freshly revealed horrors of all the years of tv and radio documented action. The foundations for gossip and rumour; you hear Richard Gere and the gerbil enough times and you're convinced it actually happened (said someone in a movie once). Whilst this is abundantly clear - that in order to heal, we must mend the wounds inflicted prior; there's also the responsibility in remembering to acknowledge the need to end self-sacrifice through guilt. I do my utmost to push on - always looking to improve; and whilst this on the surface sounds like the mindset of a gym instructor or whatever pish - its more to do with the determination to achieve something akin to blissfulness. The simpler the vision - the easier it is to achieve. Lack of ambition or lack of vision is relative - sure the blissful person may get a proper injection of adrenaline and joy from slipping behind the wheel of a Lambo or summat; but his not owning one isn't a factor in how blissful he is. If anything, the ownership of said motor vehicle may in fact lend itself to a heightened sense of stress, anguish and paranioa. In essence - being humble is as honourable as being sacrificial. Some of my warmest moments occur when I receive acknowledgment for summat so subtle, I'd given it no hope of engagement at time of conception. Then - you get surprised. And its terrific 😎 For those keeping track - we are in the doldrums; bleeding, no - hemorrhaging at an alarming rate...the ship took some heavy damage from a couple pirate bastards there during the massacres - and to put it bluntly, repairs required immediately on top of a negative cash flow now plunges us firmly into the eye-twitching depths; we are in dire straits alas. But as Knopfler once said; Communique. Thou shalt shout thee from the rooftops as long as one hath breath in thine lungs. Some may say the excuses have piled up far too often; but I don't see anything that can't be passed off as entertaining commentary tbh; worry remains at bay. Doing DWT it much like supporting the Dons - a few bangers parted with in exchange for a twisty turny journey, filled with much too many near-misses and heartache. Something so apparent to me, I'm sure I've probably scribed it prior - regurgitating old prick haha. So to wrap up - with a pinch of hope and and a sense of scope - we can forego the rope, then instead share the dope. Reddit Running Total (RRT) currently sits at -£162.02. Ah no. I’m not promoting it in the slightest to be put on; it's purely to be completely transparent about where the beans I'm spilling are being pushed towards – this is after all, a Life Experiment: Can a useless old arsehole prosper under strict weekly gambling conditions? Word of warning; prior to this – not really.
The sticky clarifies - but just to reiterate - here's the format...DRS20 is Dads Recommended Spend: £20. This is a lot of money granted - and I would encourage absolute apprehension if this sort of money represents life altering for you personally if zero is returned. I’m lucky enough to be able to afford to lose £20 in a week; but confess that if I got no return for say, 20 weeks in a row - I would likely be without something I value (a streaming service or summat). I don’t take it lightly. Four bets are placed with this outlay; a £5 Treble (DWT) and three £5 Doubles. Generally if two come up, the bet is covered (up or down £2 or so). My gambling prowess is pretty much a joke; so whilst I advertise, I in no way qualify them as a given. I’m a prick with plenty bollocks to spout is all. This is how I frame it.
So here it is - the one thats the first of a generation of DWT entries to set the alarm clock, wake up early - and properly roll up the sleeve for a day of intense lucrative action: Its DWT23 https://i.redd.it/ypn6v4zj9ew51.gif
12.65/1 we get for this selection – terrific. Over 23's last week; over 12's this week - the rod has been cast, clamped onto the back of the frothing madman that wants to shoot for the stars (as always) - pulling him back into the iron barred cage. A cage that will remain his home for a wee bitty - hopefully get his head right; properly ready to listen and collaborate upon his return. Going sensible(ish) - the hunt for a flashlight becoming a more frantic scramble. Lets fold our arms across our chests and furrow our fucking brows. DUNDEE UNITED on a 2 game girl drought - couple of nil nils with the Dons and Sainties. So thats it then - no more fucking about; wee Shankland a couple of games now to get up to speed. Hat-trick incoming therefore I reckon; with it a comfortable victory reminding ross county they best fuck off. BRISTOL ROVERS have won some big fixtures this season amongst a run of some pretty erratic form; couple of losses, couple of wins - a draw, then a win! Then a loss. Away they are then for the latest bout of pendulum swinging; which perhaps suits the style of topsy turvy footy the buggers seem to enjoy. Back to back wins on the road; hat-trick coincides with a DWT appearance - terrific 😎 MANSFIELD TOWN are back yet a-fucking-gain - the run of games without a victory now up to 13. Hoo mama. Now their sixth straight DWT appearance; a new record. The runner up in said category; I couldnae tell you tbh haha - but its a fair bitty behind 6 by golly. Opponents walsall are getting up there themselves without a victory - 4 currently. Time to make Mansfield Park a fortress again. So there we have it – nostalgia, hope and determination all apparent in equal measure. This time we do it right; wind in the sails – and off across the ocean in search of new worlds. A powerful pirate ship hunting high and low for treasures. Raise the fucking flag - the good ship DWT is back and ready to provide for its crew. If you play; play safe. DRS20 as always people. Frustration at the amount won, is better than the heartache at the amount lost. https://preview.redd.it/2n022ftl9ew51.jpg?width=630&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c3b913c8063efb399dba9f0a8b59b460ecf1ff9c
I think we just became part of a new ecosystem (final)
First half of my experiences postedhere. Okay guys, before I go on, I just want to say that we’re getting to the really goddam weird part. I don’t know if they’re telling you something different on Twitter or the radio or whatever, but trust me, what I’m about to tell you is what I personally saw happening in my city. And call it a hunch, but I’m pretty damn sure it’s bigger than just here. So I need you to take a breath, try and keep an open mind, and bear with me. This is gonna be a hard one to believe, but truly fucked up shit always is. When Cam and I exited the service hallway onto the roof, we were immediately immersed in the dark cloud I’d seen out the lobby window earlier. The sun had only just started to come up and the light was barely diffused through the haze. I could see maybe four or five feet ahead of myself but I’d been up there enough with contractors to know vaguely where the generator was. First, though, I wanted to check the ledges to see if those two creeps were already preparing to do a swan dive. Making our way through the fog towards the nearest ledge, we found Twitchy first. There’s a bit of thick, pipe-like railing, about a foot in diameter, that runs the whole perimeter of the roof, about two feet inward from the edge of the building itself. It’s not very tall; maybe three-ish feet; just tall enough so someone not paying attention would bump into it before walking off. As we approached the edge of the building through the fog, I could see that Twitchy had climbed up onto the top of the railing and was clinging to it like a child hugging the thick branch of a tree. Her arms and legs were completely wrapped around the rail and she was squeezing the ever-loving shit out of the thing as though holding on for dear life. I felt a little hit of panic release into me at the sight; after everything else today, seeing this portly, middle-aged, jacked-up soccer mom desperately clinging to a rail like a cat stuck in a tree freaked me the hell out. “You doing alright, lady?” I asked cautiously as we approached. I wasn’t really expecting anything good at this point, but there was a desperate part of me still holding out hope that maybe she was just a run-of-the-mill crazy person. Her face was turned away from me with her cheek pressed tightly against the rail; it was like she was trying to seal every inch of her body to its surface. Looking down at her, I could see that she’d scratched the back of her neck into a bloody mess. I stared in disgust for a moment and then, briefly, thought I saw something within the wound move. My jaw dropped in disbelief under my mask and then I heard Cam scream, scaring the shit out of me. I whirled around in a panic and spotted her a few feet away. “What is it?!” I ordered urgently, scanning for Antony and his letter opener to appear out of the fog like Freddy Krueger. “There’s… in the fog!” she croaked, pointing upwards into the haze of sky. I traced the direction of her point and narrowed my eyes, straining to see whatever it was she’d spotted in the dark cloud around us. After a few moments of fruitless investigation, I turned to Cam. “I’m not seeing anything, what was it?” I asked, my muscles tense. “I… I don’t know,” she stammered. “I thought it was just a shadow or something in the fog but then… I… thought I saw an eye looking at me.” She looked at me fearfully, bewilderment in her face. “Well… that’s fuckin spooky.” I stared back up into the fog for another few seconds, not knowing what I was looking for. I was sure she saw something but wasn’t exactly sure if this was actually another threat or just one more thing to add to the “weird shit that happened today” list. I turned back to Cam and tried to put on a reassuring voice. “Okay, fuck this- let’s check out that generator real quick and then get the hell out of here. We can hang out in my office until the police show up and let them sort this weirdness out.” Cam looked at me with urgent concern in her eyes but nodded her approval. I oriented myself towards the direction of the generator and started cautiously picking my steps through the mist. It took us a minute or two to make our way to the generator because I was trying to stay vigilant against coming too close to a ledge or running into our mail boy again. Cam walked beside me, waving her pepper spray around in front of her like a priest walking through a brothel with a cross. When we made it to the generator itself, which is housed in a big metal casing bolted to the roof, I saw we’d been beaten to the punch. Antony was already there and had climbed on top of the thing. He was about six feet up from us so I couldn’t see him perfectly, but was down on his knees and elbows as though in prayer, hands clenched onto the roof of the casing. “Whatcha doing up there, bud?” I yelled up into the mist. No reply. I sighed and glanced at Cam, who was looking up into the indiscernible sky. “Okay, I gotta unlock this maintenance panel and take a look at the control unit for a readout on this generator. If it comes up with an error, I can reset it and then we are outta here,” I told her, trying to remind myself the process more than anything. She didn’t reply so I took another cautious look up at Antony. His body was twitching but he remained on all fours, frozen in place. “Fuck it,” I muttered under my breath, and got down to be eye-level with the door to the control unit. I’d just gotten it open and had started to run the diagnostics execution when I was interrupted by another scream from Cam. “MR. WALLACE- it’s Antony!” I sprang up from my knees and backed up a pace or two, braced to take a letter opener in the chest. “What’s up with Ant-OH MY GOD!” I screamed, as I focused on the mail boy in the mist. Antony had gone rigid and something had split out the back of his neck. A dark red tendril, about the width and length of a beer bottle, was stretching upwards from the base of his skull like an antenna. Rounded, golf ball-sized orange growths pulsated on its sides. The tip of the tendril was swaying gently, as though searching the air around it. As I stared I could tell it was still growing; slowly inching its way further and further out the back of his neck. I hadn’t processed the horror unfolding atop the generator when I heard the cry. At least I think it was a cry. It was a sound my brain didn’t have the equipment to comprehend; something that felt more like a sound than perhaps was a sound itself. The first place I heard it was inside my head; a thundering, horrible screech that started in the center of my mind before rippling outwards, overwhelming all my senses at once. My vision flashed patterns of white and I felt like I was about to pass out and throw up at the same time. The cry echoed up, through, and out of me, leaving a pitchy ringing in my ears and my body tingling. My vision refocused just in time for me to see something drop out of the fog. I’m not gonna pretend I got the best look at this thing. It was still foggy and early-morning-dark out, and it came and went fast- the whole scene was over in maybe one “Mississippi.” But it was a massive, flying creature, at least twenty feet long, shaped like a manta ray. It kind of flew like a manta ray, too; the fleshy sides of its flat, disc-like body rippled forcefully around it, sending gusts of air that whirled the fog and knocked Cam and I off our footing. It was fleshy and pure white, with pronounced, dull-orange veins criss-crossing over its body. On its underside were two bird-like arms covered in tightened cords of tendon that ended in a pair of outstretched, three-toed talons. A single, horrible, plate-sized eye stared downwards from the underside of its body, glowing yellow in the fog like a distant lighthouse. The creature dive-bombed down from the clouds, caught Antony’s torso in its white talons, and ripped him from the top of the generator and into the fog, like an owl snatching a mouse from a field. A single arm, so tight-gripped as Antony’s fist was to the top of the generator, ripped from his body at the shoulder with a horrible snap as the creature shot upwards again, remaining fixed to the top of the box. At the moment of the rip, droplets of blood sprayed outwards, hitting my face and chest. It took my brain a moment to catch up with everything I had just experienced. But as soon as it had, I turned on my heel to Cam. She must have thrown up when the creature first cried out because the back of her hand was frozen in mid-wipe on her face; her mask scrunched up in her fist. Antony’s blood was misted across her face. Our eyes locked in mutual recognition that what just happened really just happened before I broke the pause with “let’s get the fuck out of here.” She gave me a single “mhm” of urgent agreement. At this point the only thing I wanted in the world was to be off that roof. I was alternating between jogging and power-walking to get back to the access door, dodging steam vents and electrical boxes in the dark mist. For a second I thought I saw a helicopter-sized shadow pass through the fog above me, but otherwise we made it to the door without disturbance. Soon we were clanging our way back down the staircase in the service hallway and back into the law firm. We’d taken two steps past the door when I saw figures in the darkness, shuffling towards us down the hall. They were coming from the direction of the lobby; silhouettes in the dim light moving in the same awkward, jerky manner Twitchy and Antony had. There was maybe four of them making their way towards us, some scratching behind their necks as they hobbled in our direction. I was internally debating between standing perfectly still like a possum or finding out if I was ever cut out to be a linebacker when Cam grabbed my arm and pulled me off to the side. “We can use the back door,” she hissed, pulling a key card on a lanyard out of her blazer pocket. She took lead and we rushed down a side hallway to another door in the back of the firm as I listened to the newcomers’ uneven footsteps echo up the stairs to the roof from behind us. Cam unlocked the door and we jogged out, turning left towards the elevator area. We got there right as one of the elevator doors dinged and slid open, revealing two more strangers. I could tell in an instant that these guys were fucked up, too. Both were strangers to me- one was a younger guy dressed like he’d just come from a club, his short-sleeve button-up dirtied and his white tennis shoes filthy. The other was in his 60s and dressed in faded denim and a red hat, one hand still locked around the carry handle of a shopping basket. They both lumbered out while Cam and I hurriedly backed up. They didn’t seem to pay us any mind though, and after a moment of jerky head movements to orient themselves, stumbled in the direction of the law firm lobby. Cam and I looked at each other like two people who just narrowly avoided a car accident before rushing into the elevator. I hit “B” for the basement parking as the doors slid back together and the elevator begin its descent. Screw the office plan, I was getting the hell out of here. “So… you got a car or something? Do you need me to take you somewhere?” I asked Cam, staring fixedly forward. “I take the bus… I live kind of a ways out behind Northtown.” She seemed to ponder something for a moment before turning to look at me. “I live alone in an apartment complex on the top floor. All these guys were trying to get onto the roof… I just don’t know if it’s a good idea for me to go to my place.” She hesitated. “Where are you heading? Think I could stay with you for a bit?” I faked my best “I’m in control of the situation” smile. “Yeah Cam, you bet.” Her body seemed to relax and she thanked me, rubbing the back of her neck with one hand and stowing her pepper spray in her pocket with the other. By the time I pulled my Honda out of the garage onto Howard Street the fog was finally lightening up around us by the obscured morning sun. As I navigated my way north through downtown we saw a few more people twitchily walking the sidewalks, shuffling about like poorly made wind-up toys set loose on the city. I kept my eye on the misty sky above us, watching for anything suspicious. The worst I saw was another shadow darting ominously through the clouds, but nothing more. However, we did spot a few more people on the roofs of some smaller office buildings; motionless as they clung to flag poles, electrical boxes, and other fixtures. “What do you think is happening,” Cam asked, staring out the passenger-seat window at the bizarre happenings around us. “Hell if I know. I’m heading home to my cat and to give the news a pretty serious read.” “Sounds good,” Cam agreed, watching homes and chain businesses pass by as we turned on to Monroe. We spent the rest of the drive in silence, my brain replaying the events of the day. When driving back down Driscoll I watched keenly for Mr. Asshole’s house, curious to see if he was still on his roof. When we passed by I could see he wasn’t. Only a short stretch of rope remained, dangling from the chimney stack. I shook off a shiver at the sight and a moment later turned left into my own driveway. “Alright, here’s my place. I don’t know if your phone is still out of signal but I have a landline you can use.” Cam said nothing in response and I glanced over at her. She was giving me a sort of vacant stare, like someone who had just woken up from not enough sleep. She reached behind her neck and began vigorously scratching behind her neck. “Ah, shit, Cam. C’mon. Tell me you’re okay. Tell me something.” She stared at me with a confused, pained expression before sporadically choking out words in a voice not quite her own. “Can we go… up?” “Ah, Cam. Fuck.” I debated just leaving her in the car and calling the police but my mind flashed back to the rope tied off atop my neighbor’s house, hanging limply in the fog. “Alright, Cam, you bet. Up is this way. C’mon.” I walked around the front of the car and helped her out of the passenger side door. Her body motions weren’t yet as jerky as the others I’d seen, but her motor skills were definitely not what they were. We lurched through the front door into my house and I quickly locked the door behind me. As I shifted myself to hold Cam’s weight better Ophie stalked into the living room and hissed frightfully at Cam. “Yes, yes, I know, Oph,” I responded, exasperated. In my head this whole thing felt like some kind of World War 3 shit, so my plan was to barricade myself down in the basement where I had some food and camping stuff. As soon as Cam saw that we were about to head down the stairs she began to scream at me. “No! Up! Up! No! UP!” She spat, struggling vainly against me as I practically lifted her up by her armpits to carry her down the stairs. Thank god she was such a small lady. She threw her head back, though, catching me pretty good on the lip, and I felt blood trickle down to my chin behind my mask. I managed to get her down there before lifting-dragging her into the laundry room and locking her in. I cleaned up my face a little bit and changed my shirt before grabbing a water bottle from my basement mini-fridge. I rapidly opened the laundry room door, rolled it in, and locked the door again. I could hear Cam in there, pacing around aimlessly, slamming on random walls and shit, demanding “UP!” every few seconds. And that was all about five hours ago now. I gathered up Ophie and we’ve been down in the basement ever since. I called 9-1-1 about ten times since I first locked myself into my little suburban bunker, but it’s a busy tone every time. So mostly I’ve spent today huddled up on an old couch, reading news reports on my phone and trying to mentally block out the intermittent screams of “UP!” coming from my laundry room. But like I said, they stopped about an hour ago. To be honest, I preferred when I could hear her. And that’s what’s really happening, guys. If you’re able to see this message, I need you to know there’s some kind of new ecosystem happening out there and it is making people sick; killing them. I don’t know where it came from or how far it has spread but you sure as shit aren’t gonna survive it if you’re not being careful. Listen to someone who’s actually seen what’s happening out there first hand- it’s worse than you can imagine. So please, please, please. Stay safe. Stay home. And for the love of god… wear a fucking mask.
[OC] Analyzing fixture rotations teamwise to find the best combination of 2 or 3 teams to rotate players from based on when YOU want to wildcard
Background: I came across this twitter post by SSIA FPL while browsing twitter the other day and found it to be useful but lacking in certain areas. The main issues I had with the post were:
It did not consider when I wanted to wildcard: SSIA gives us the combination of fixtures up to gameweek 16 without thinking that many people will want to plan and wildcard by gameweek 3, 6, etc. based on preferences, international breaks, team structure etc.
It used the default FPL fixture difficulty: The Default fixture difficulty given to us by Official FPL does not take into account real world difficulty of the fixtures, betting odds, etc.
It did not take into account good teams like burnley blank
This inspired me to make my own rotation analysis to fix these problems. Method: Step 1: I used Tim Bayer’s fixture difficulty chart that uses FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power index to rank teams, and assign scores to matches based on difficulty, to get my version of the FDR, which I believe to be more accurate. Step 2: I then used Python to get the lowest cumulative difficulty ratings for each combination of teams for each week. For example: The combination of Arsenal and Everton would have a difficulty rating of 58.3 (As Arsenal has the easier fixture) for the first week and a difficulty rating of 59.1 (As Everton has the easier fixture) for the second week. There are 190 (i.e. 20C2) unique combinations of 2 teams that can be made and 1140 (i.e. 20C3) unique combinations of 3 teams that can be made. Step 3: I added the scores of each combination for GW1 to the subsequent score in GW2 as the score up to GW2 for that rotation and so on until GW16 (as this is the last opportunity for you to wildcard). Step 4: I compiled the results in the form of a table that shows the best possible combination of 2 teams and 3 teams until that specific GW. How to use this: Step 1: Plan which GW or at least around which gameweek you plan to wildcard. Important dates are: GW 2: Man City and Man Utd Assets back into the mix. GW 3: Wolves Fixture turn. GW 5: 1st International Break GW 9: 2nd international Break GW 10: Man City & Liverpool Fixture Turn GW 13/14: Start of Fixture Pile up GW 16: Last chance to use wildcard. Step 2: Check what is the best combination of 2 or 3 teams based on your team structure to rotate cheap assets from. Step 3: ? Step 4: Profit. Things to keep in mind:
This does not take form into mind, and if you’re a player that goes form > fixtures then this will not be very helpful for you.
For GW 1 the best combination of 2 teams will be the best 1 team and anyone, because you cannot rotate 2 players in 1 week. And similarly the best combination of 3 teams till GW 3 will be the best 2 + anyone.
I have included bonus picks where the scores were too close to matter.
If you have any questions or want the original document with all the possible combinations, feel free to DM me. Good Luck to everyone! Top 10k here we go! P.S Thanks to u/RedditNak for helping me with the python stuff.
The truth behind Puskás Akadémia FC - How Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán stole a legend, built a stadium in his backyard and guided his team to Europe
The 2019/2020 season of the Hungary’s National Football League (NB1) – being one of the first leagues to restart play - came to an end on 27 June. If a casual observer (for whatever reason) decides to check out the final standings, he would be not surprised at the first two positions: record-champion Ferencváros defended their title, while regional powerhouse Fehérvár (Videoton) came in second. However, the third place team,Puskás Akadémia FCmight seem unusual and one could think that there is a story behind that. Is there a team named after Ferenc Puskás? Did some academy youths make an incredible run for the Europa League qualification? Well, the observer is right, there is a story behind all this, but it’s absolutely not a fun story. It’s a story about how one powerful man’s obsession with football stole a legend, misused state funds and killed the spirit of Hungarian football.(Warning: this is a long story, feel free to scroll down for a tl;dr. Also, I strongly advise checking out the links, those images are worth seeing). Naturally, political influence in football has been present ever since the dawn of the sport and we know of numerous state leaders who felt confident enough to use their influence to ensure the successful development of their favored clubs – Caucescu’s FC Olt Scornicesti and Erdogan’s Basaksehir are well-known examples of such attempts. However, I fear that very few of the readers are aware of the fact that Puskás Akadémia FC is nothing but Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s grandiose project for establishing his hometown’s club as one of the country’s top teams. Considering that Orbán managed to achieve this goal using state funds in an EU member democracy in the 2000s, one might even say that it might be one of the most impressive attempts of cheating your way through Football Manager in real life. Now that Puskás Akadémia FC escaped the desolate football scene of Hungary and is getting ready for the European takeover, I feel that it’s high time to tell its true story.
Part 1: Part time striker, part time PM
Our story begins in 1999 when the 36-year-old striker Viktor Orbán (recently elected as the country’s Prime Minister) was signed by the sixth-tier side of Felcsút FC residing in rural Fejér County. It might sound surprising that an active politician would consider such a side job, but given that Orbán has been playing competitive low-level football throughout his whole life and has always been known as a keen football enthusiast, people seemed to be okay with his choice for a hobby. Orbán spent most of his childhood in the village of Felcsút (population: 1,800), so it seemed only natural that he would join the team after one of his old-time acquaintances became team president there. Orbán’s arrival to the club seemed to work like a charm as Felcsút FC immediately earned a promotion to the fifth league. The Prime Minister’s busy program did not allow him to attend every training session and game but Orbán did make an effort to contribute as much as possible on the field – there is a report of a government meeting being postponed as Orbán was unavailable due to attending Felcsút FC’s spring training camp. The 2001/2002 season brought another breakthrough for the side as Felcsút was promoted to the national level of the football pyramid after being crowned the champion of Fejér County. Sadly enough for Orbán, he suffered a defeat on another pitch – his party lost the 2002 election and Orbán was forced to move to an opposition role. No matter what happened on the political playing field, Orbán would not abandon his club. Just before the 2002 elections, Felcsút was surprisingly appointed as one of the regional youth development centers by the Hungarian FA. Orbán continued contributing on the field as well (he had more spare time after all) but his off-the-field efforts provided much more value for the team as he used his political influence to convince right-wing businessmen that they should definitely get sponsorship deals done with the fourth-division village team. Club management was able to transform the influx of funds into on-field success: Felcsút FC was promoted to the third division in 2004 and achievedpromotion to the second division in 2005. Although these new horizons required a skill level that an aging ex-PM is not likely to possess, Orbán regularly played as a late game sub and even appeared in cup games against actual professional opponents. The now-42-year old Orbán did not want to face the challenge of the second division, so he retired in 2005 – but this did not stop him from temping as an assistant coach when the head coach was sacked in the middle of the 2005-2006 season. Success on the playing field did not translate to political success: Orbán lost the elections once again in 2006. However, this was only a temporary loss: the ruling party committed blunder after blunder and by early 2007 it became absolutely obvious that Orbán would be able return to power in 2010. Now confident in his political future, Orbán opted for the acceleration of football development in Felcsút – by late 2007 he took over the presidency of the club to take matters in his own hands. Sponsors seeking to gain favor with the soon-to-be PM were swarming Felcsút FC, so the club was able to stand very strong in an era where financial stability was a very rare sight in the Hungarian football scene, accumulating three medals (but no promotion) between 2007 and 2009. On the other hand, Orbán realized the value of youth development as well, and started a local foundation for this purpose back in 2004 that gathered funds for the establishment a boarding school-like football academy. The academy opened its doors in September 2006 (only the second of such institutions in the country) and Orbán immediately took upon the challenge of finding an appropriate name for the academy. He went on to visit the now very sick Ferenc Puskás in the hospital to discuss using his name, but as Puskás’ medical situation was deteriorating rapidly, communication attempts were futile. Luckily enough Puskás’ wife (and soon to be widow) was able to act on his incapable husband’s behalf and approved the naming deal in a contract. According to the statement, naming rights were granted without compensation, as “Puskás would have certainly loved what’s happening down in Felcsút”. However, there was much more to the contract: Puskás’ trademark was handed to a sports journalist friend of Orbán (György Szöllősi, also acting communications director of the academy) who promised a hefty annual return for the family (and also a 45% share of the revenue for himself). Ferenc Puskás eventually died on 17 November 2006 and on 26 November 2006 the football academy was named after him: Puskás Academy was born. Orbán shared his vision of the whole organization after the opening ceremony: “It’s unreasonable to think that Felcsút should have a team in the top division. We should not flatter ourselves, our players and our supporters with this dream. Our long term ambition is the creation of a stable second division team that excels in youth development and provides opportunity for the talents of the future.” Let’s leave that there.
Part 2: No stadium left behind
Orbán became PM once again in April 2010 after a landslide victory that pretty much granted him unlimited power. He chased lots of political agendas but one of his policies was rock solid: he would revive sports (and especially football) that was left to bleed out by the previous governments. The football situation in 2010 was quite dire: while the national team has actually made some progress in the recent years and has reached the 42nd position in the world rankings, football infrastructure was in a catastrophic state. Teams were playing in rusty stadiums built in the communist era, club finances were a mess, youth teams couldn’t find training grounds and the league was plagued by violent fan groups and lackluster attendance figures (3100 average spectators per game in the 2009/2010 season). Orbán – aided by the FA backed by business actors very interested in making him happy – saw the future in the total rebuild of the football infrastructure. Vast amounts of state development funds were invested into the football construction industry that warmly welcomed corruption, cost escalation and shady procurement deals. In the end, money triumphed: over the last decade, new stadiums sprung out from nothing all over the country, dozens of new academies opened and pitches for youth development appeared on practically every corner. The final piece of the stadium renovation program was the completion of the new national stadium, Puskás Aréna in 2019 (estimated cost: 575 million EUR). Orbán commemorated this historic moment with a celebratory video on his social media that features a majestic shot of Orbán modestly kicking a CGI ball from his office to the new stadium. Obviously, Orbán understood that infrastructure alone won’t suffice. He believed in the idea that successful clubs are the cornerstone of a strong national side as these clubs would compete in a high quality national league (and in international tournaments) that would require a constant influx of youth players developed by the clubs themselves. However, Orbán was not really keen on sharing the state’s infinite wealth with private club owners who failed to invest in their clubs between 2002 and 2010. The club ownership takeover was not that challenging as previous owners were usually happy to cut their losses, and soon enough most clubs came under Orbán’s influence. Some clubs were integrated deep into Orbán’s reach (Ferencváros and MTK Budapest club presidents are high ranking officials of Orbán’s party) while in other cases, indirect control was deemed sufficient (Diósgyőri VTK was purchased by a businessman as an attempt to display loyalty to Orbán). Pouring taxpayer money into infrastructure (stadium) projects is relatively easy: after all, we are basically talking about overpriced government construction projects, there’s nothing new there. On the other hand, allocating funds to clubs that should be operating on a competitive market is certainly a tougher nut to crack. The obvious solutions were implemented: the state media massively overpaid for broadcasting rights and the national sports betting agency also pays a hefty sum to the FA, allowing for a redistribution of considerable amounts. However, given that the income side of Hungarian clubs was basically non-existent (match day income is negligible, the failed youth development system does not sell players), an even more radical solution was desperately needed. Also, there was definite interest in the development of a tool that would allow for differentiation between clubs (as in the few remaining non-government affiliated clubs should not receive extra money). The solution came in 2011: the so-called TAO (“társasági adó”= corporate tax) system was introduced, granting significant tax deductions for companies if they offered a portion of their profits to sports clubs – however, in theory, funds acquired through TAO can be only used for youth development and infrastructure purposes. Soon enough, it became apparent that state authorities were not exactly interested in the enforcement of these restrictions, so some very basic creative accounting measures enabled clubs to use this income for anything they wanted to. Companies were naturally keen on cutting their tax burdens and scoring goodwill with the government, so TAO money immediately skyrocketed. Opportunistic party strongmen used their influence to convince local business groups to invest in the local clubs, enabling for the meteoric rise of multiple unknown provincial teams (Mezőkövesd [pop: 16,000], Kisvárda [pop: 16,000], Balmazújváros [pop: 17,000]) into the first division. Although it’s not the main subject of this piece, I feel inclined to show you the actual results of Orbán’s grandiose football reform. While we do have our beautiful stadiums, we don’t exactly get them filled – league attendance has stagnated around 3000 spectators per game throughout the whole decade. We couldn’t really move forward with our national team either: Hungary lost 10 positions in the FIFA World Rankings throughout Orbán’s ten years. On the other hand, the level of league has somewhat improved – Videoton and Ferencváros reached the Europa League group stage in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Too bad that the Instat-based top team of 2019/2020 Hungarian league consists of 10 foreigners and only 1 Hungarian: the goalkeeper.
Part 3: Small place, big game!
As seen in the previous chapter, Orbán did have a strong interest in the improvement of the football situation Hungary, but we shouldn’t forget that his deepest interest and true loyalty laid in the wellbeing of Felcsút and its academy. Now that Orbán had limitless means to see to the advancement of his beloved club, he got to work immediately. Orbán handed over formal club management duties to his friend / protégé / middleman / businessman Lőrinc Mészáros in 2010, but no questions would ever arise of who is actually calling the shots. First of all, no club can exist without a proper stadium. Although in 2011 Orbán explicitly stated that “Felcsút does not need a stadium as stadiums belong to cities”, no one was really surprised in 2012 when the construction of the Felcsút stadium was announced. Orbán was generous enough to donate the lands just in front of his summer home in the village for the project, locating the entrance a mere ten meters away from his residence. Construction works for the stunningly aesthetic 3,800-seater arena (in a village of 1,800 people) started in April 2012 and were completed in April 2014, making Felcsút’s arena the second new stadium of Orbán’s gigantic stadium revival program. The estimated budget of the construction was 120 million EUR (31,500 EUR / seat) was financed by the Puskás Academy who explicitly stated that they did not use government funds for the project. Technically, this statement is absolutely true as the construction was financed through the TAO money offered by the numerous companies looking for tax deduction and Orbán’s goodwill. However, technically, this means that the country’s budget was decreased by 120 million EUR unrealized tax revenue. Naturally, the gargantuan football stadium looks ridiculously out of place in the small village, but there’s really no other way to ensure that your favorite team’s stadium is within 20 seconds of walking distance from your home. Obviously, a proper club should also have some glorious history. Felcsút was seriously lagging behind on this matter as though Felcsút FC was founded in 1931, it spent its pre-Orbán history in the uninspiring world of the 5th-7th leagues of the country. Luckily enough, Orbán had already secured Puskás’ naming rights and they were not afraid to use it, so Felcsút FC was renamed to Puskás Academy FC in 2009. The stadium name was a little bit problematic as the Hungarian national stadium in Budapest had sadly had the dibs on Puskás’ name, so they had to settle with Puskás’ Spanish nickname, resulting in the inauguration of the Pancho Arena. But why stop here? Orbán’s sports media strongman György Szöllősi acted upon the contract with Puskás’ widow and transferred all Puskás’ personal memorabilia (medals, jerseys, correspondence) to the most suitable place of all: a remote village in which Puskás never even set foot in. While the off-field issues were getting resolved, Orbán’s attention shifted to another important area: the actual game of football. Although academy players started to graduate from 2008 on, it very soon became painfully obvious that the academy program couldn’t really maintain even a second division side for now. In 2009, Orbán reached an agreement with nearby Videoton’s owner that effectively transformed Felcsút FC into Videoton’s second team under the name of Videoton – Puskás Akadémia FC. The mutually beneficent agreement would allow Videoton to give valuable playing time to squad players while it could also serve as a skipping step for Puskás Academy’s fresh graduates to a first league team. The collaboration resulted in two mid-table finishes and a bronze medal in the second division in the following three seasons that wasn’t really impressive compared to Felcsút FC’s standalone seasons. It seemed that the mixture of reserve Videoton players and academy youth was simply not enough for promotion, and although Orbán had assured the public multiple times that his Felcsút project was not aiming for the top flight, very telling changes arose after the 2011/2012 season. Felcsút terminated the Videoton cooperation deal and used the rapidly accumulating TAO funds to recruit experienced players for the now independently operating Puskás Academy FC (PAFC). The new directive worked almost too well: PAFC won its division with a 10 point lead in its first standalone year which meant that they would have to appear in the first league prior to the completion of their brand-new Pancho Arena. Too bad that this glorious result had almost nothing to do with the academy - only two players were academy graduates of the side’s regular starting XI. Orbán did not let himself bothered with the ridiculousness of an academy team with virtually no academy players being promoted to the first division as he stated that “a marathon runner shouldn’t need to explain why the other runners were much slower than him”. Orbán also displayed a rare burst of modesty as he added that “his team’s right place is not in the first league, and they will soon be overtaken by other, better sides”. The promotion of PAFC to the first division made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move. Supporter groups were united in hatred all along the league and not surprisingly, away fans almost always outnumbered the home side at PAFC’s temporary home at Videoton’s Sóstói Stadium (demolished and rebuilt in its full glory since then). One of the teams, however, possessed an extraordinary degree of anger against PAFC: supporters of Budapest Honvéd – the only Hungarian team in which Ferenc Puskás played – felt especially awkward about the transfer of their club legend’s heritage to Felcsút. Tensions spiked at the PAFC – Honvéd game when home security forced Honvéd supporters to remove the “Puskás” part of their traditional “Puskás – Kispest – Hungary” banner – the team answered the insult with style as they secured a 4-0 victory supported by fans chanting “you can’t buy legends”. Despite Orbán’s prognosis, other better sides did not rush to overtake his team, so PAFC, now residing in their brand new Pancho Arena, came through with a 14th and a 10th place in their first two seasons. Naturally, conspiracy theories began to formulate, speculating that government-friendly owners would certainly not be motivated to give their best against PAFC. However, as the league size was reduced to 12 for the 2015/2016 season, PAFC found themselves in a dire situation just before the final round: they needed a win and needed rival Vasas to lose against MTK in order to avoid relegation. PAFC’s draw seemed to be unlucky as they faced their arch-enemy Honvéd at home, but Honvéd displayed an absolute lackluster effort – fueling conspiracy theories – and lost the fixture 2 to 1 against a home side featuring four academy players. Vasas, however, did not disappoint, their 2-0 victory resulted in PAFC’s elimination and a very relaxed sigh all over the football community. PAFC’s relegation seemed to be in accordance with Orbán’s 2013 statement, so public opinion supposed for a while that Orbán’s project came to a halting point and the Academy would go on to actually field academy players in the second division (especially as rostering foreign players was prohibited in the lower leagues). However, if you have read through this point, you know better than to expect Orbán to retreat – obviously, PAFC came back with a bang. With a ballsy move, PAFC didn’t even sell their foreign players, they just loaned them across the league, promising them that they would be able to return next year to the newly promoted team. The promise was kept as PAFC went into another shopping spree of experienced players (easily convincing lots of them to choose the second division instead of the first) and easily won the second league. Orbán – now aware of his negligence – opted for the doubling the team’s budget,making PAFC the third most well-founded club in the whole country (only coming short to his friend’s Videoton and his party minion’s Ferencváros). With an actual yearly influx from TAO money in the ballpark of 30-40 million EUR, PAFC management had to really work wonders in creative accounting in order to make their money look somewhat legitimate. The books were now full of ridiculous items like:
Construction of a new tea kitchen for youth players for 650,000 EUR
Employment of a 45 person “cleaning and maintenance staff” for the academy.
Naturally, in the country of no consequences, absolutely nothing happened: PAFC went on with its spending and signed 35 foreigners between 2017 and 2020. They did so because they could not hope to field a winning team in the first league consisting of academy players, despite the fact that Puskás Academy has been literally drowning in money since 2007. This seems to somewhat contradict Orbán’s 2013 promise, stating that “Puskás Academy will graduate two or three players to major European leagues each year”. To be fair, there have been players who managed to emerge to Europe (well, exactly two of them: Roland Sallai plays at Freiburg, László Kleinheisler played at Werder Bremen) but most academy graduates don’t even have the slightest the chance to make their own academy’s pro team as it’s full of foreigners and more experienced players drawn for other teams’ programs. Despite their unlimited funding, PAFC could not put up a top-tier performance in their first two years back in the first division, finishing 6th and 7th in the 12-team league. Many speculated that the lack of support, motivation and even a clear team mission did not allow for chemistry to develop within the multinational and multi-generational locker room. Consistency was also a rare sight on the coaching side: club management was absolutely impatient with coaches who were very easily released after a single bad spell and there were talks of on-field micromanagement request coming from as high as Orbán. Even so, their breakthrough came dangerously close in 2018 as PAFC performed consistently well in the cup fixtures and managed to reach the final. Their opponent, Újpest played an incredibly fierce game and after a 2-2 draw, they managed to defeat PAFC in the shootout. Football fans sighed in relief throughout the country as ecstatic Újpest supporters verbally teased a visibly upset Orbán in his VIP lounge about his loss. Obviously, we could only delay the inevitable. While this year’s PAFC side seemed to be more consistent than its predecessors, it seemed that they won’t be able to get close to the podium - they were far behind the obvious league winner duo of Ferencváros and Videoton and were trailing third-place Mezőkövesd 6 points just before the pandemic break. However, both Mezőkövesd and PAFC’s close rivals DVTK and Honvéd fall flat after the restart while PAFC was able to maintain its good form due to its quality roster depth. PAFC overtook Mezőkövesd after the second-to-last round as Mezőkövesd lost to the later relegated Debrecen side. (Mezőkövesd coach Attila Kuttor was fined harshly because of his post-game comments on how the FA wants PAFC to finish third.) PAFC faced Honvéd in the last round once again, and as Honvéd came up with its usual lackluster effort, PAFC secured an effortless win, confidently claiming the third place. PAFC celebrated their success in a nearly empty stadium, however neither Orbán, nor Mészáros (club owner, Orbán’s protégé, now 4th richest man of Hungary) seemed to worry about that. While Orbán high-fived with his peers in the VIP lounge, Mészáros was given the opportunity to award the bronze medals (and for some reason, a trophy) to the players dressed up in the incredibly cringe worthy T-shirts that say “Small place, big game!”. Big game, indeed: in the 2019/2020 season, foreign players’ share of the teams playing time was 43.6% while academy graduates contributed only 17.9%. On Sunday evening, less than 24 hours after PAFC’s glorious success, György Szöllősi, now editor-in-chief of Hungary’s only sports newspaper (purchased by Orbán’s affiliates a few years back) published an editorial on the site, stating that “the soccer rebuild in Felcsút became the motor and symbol of the revitalization of sport throughout the whole country”. Well, Szöllősi is exactly right: Felcsút did became a symbol, but a symbol of something entirely different. Felcsút became a symbol of corruption, inefficiency, lies and the colossal waste of money. But, hey, at least we know now: you only need to spend 200 million EUR (total budget of PAFC and its academy in the 2011-2020 period) if you want to have a Europa League team in your backyard. Good to know!
Epilogue: What's in the future?
As there is no foreseeable chance for political change to happen Hungary (Orbán effortlessly secured qualified majority in 2014 and 2018, and is projected to do so in 2022 as well), PAFC’s future seems to be as bright as it gets. Although consensus opinion now seems to assume that Orbán does not intend to interfere with the Ferencváros – Videoton hegemony, we can never be really sure about the exact limits of his greed. One could also argue that entering the European theater serves as a prime opportunity for making splashy transfers who could be the cornerstones of a side challenging the league title. However, as all political systems are deemed to fall, eventually Orbán’s regime will come apart. Whoever will take upon the helm after Orbán, they will certainly begin with cutting back on the one item on Orbán’s agenda that never had popular support: limitless football spending. Puskás Academy, having next to zero market revenue, will not be able to survive without the state’s life support, so the club will fold very shortly. The abandoned, rotting stadium in Felcsút will serve as a memento of a powerful man who could not understand the true spirit of football. But let’s get back to present day, as we have more pressing issues coming up soon: PAFC will play their first European match in the First qualifying round of the Europa League on 27 August. We don’t have a date for the draw yet, but soon enough, a team unaware of the whole situation will be selected to face the beast. I hope that maybe one of their players does some research and maybe reads this very article for inspiration. I hope that the supporters of this club get in touch with Honvéd fans who would be eager to provide them with some tips on appropriate chants. I hope that other teams gets drawn as the home team so Orbán wouldn’t get the pleasure of walking to his stadium for an international match. But most importantly, I very much hope that this team obliterates PAFC and wipes them off the face of the earth. 5-0 will suffice, thank you. And if this team fails to do that, we don’t have to worry yet. Due to our shitty league coefficient, PAFC would need to win four fixtures in a row. And that – if there’s any justice in this world – is a thing that can’t, that won’t happen. Ball don’t lie – if I may say. TL,DR Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán redirected some 200 million EUR of taxpayer money over 10 years to fuel his ambition of raising a competitive football team in his hometown of 1,800 people. He built a 3,800-seater stadium in his backyard, expropriated football legend Ferenc Puskás’ trademarks and heritage and built up a football league where almost all clubs are owned by his trustees. His team, Puskás Akadémia FC was originally intended to be a development ground for youth players graduating from Orbán’s football academy, but eventually the team became more and more result-orianted. Finally, a roster full of foreign and non-academy players came through and finished third in the league, releasing this abomination of a team to the European football theatre. Please, knock them out asap!
The People’s Football Game – a Pro Evolution Soccer 6 review
There are a few reasons why the Libero magazine exists. Games like these are one of those reasons. There are many reviews written about Pro Evolution Soccer 6 out there on the biggest gaming sites of the internet. Even if you somehow were able to read all of them – I sure haven’t – I bet none of them were able to describe a tenth of the brilliance of this specific Pro Evolution iteration. You can prove this yourself; you can even close the Libero tab on your browser while you do read the others. Go ahead, do it; I know you will be back anyway. Why do I know this? Because all of those reviews were written in 2006, back when the game was released; and there is no way that anyone in 2006 could’ve guessed what PES6 would eventually become. The PES6 all of them talked about bear little resemblance to the football gaming ‘monster’ it eventually developed into. In retrospective, however, we are definitely able to understand its full impact on the virtual football scene and on the history of sports gaming itself, for we have time on our side whereas the others didn’t. So do get in, fasten your seat belts and put on your best game face: you’re in for quite the ride. 2006. Konami celebrates the end of a vastly-successful PS2 era comprised of superb football titles with Pro Evolution Soccer 6, the last ‘newgen-PES’ before the subsequent iteration of consoles was out. Konami wants to ‘go out with a bang’ before embracing a new challenge; yet after what the common football gaming fan had experienced over the previous half-a-decade (even more than that if you count the extraordinary PS1 ISS/PES versions too), the question that was on everyone’s minds was: is it even humanly possible to improve the Pro Evo series – at least on the pitch, where it truly matters? Plus; would it even make any sense to risk the game’s well-earned reputation by changing too much of what the series had built over the previous seasons instead of focusing primarily on providing a much-improved game for the first iteration of the new generation of consoles – employing a strategy seen recently with the release of a ‘PES2021 Season Update’ whilst Konami works on PES2022 away from the spotlight? The fact is that the previous Pro Evo titles since PES4 didn’t exactly reinvent the footballing wheel themselves; they didn’t need to because their supreme domination over any other football game was unquestionable, and Konami developers found out that it was possible to rely on the winning formula of PES4 as a platform for the 5th and – spoiler alert – also the 6th iteration, merely tweaking the bits that needed tweaking, needing not to carry out any massive revolution. Off the pitch these three games aren’t much different; on the pitch though, otherwise small changes ended up recreating Pro Evo’s football as a totally different beast on each iteration, even if, for example, visually speaking, again, there isn’t much between them. All were bloody great football simulations, yet each had its own unique footballing character: PES4 provided a brand of frenetic yet deep representation of the sport, one able to attract not just the die-hard football fan but the casual player; PES5 on the other hand brought the game to a simulation-minded path with a representation of football that was gruesomely realistic and unapologetically physical – and not at all frenetic this time around. As we’ll find out, PES6 would carve out its own identity too, a testament to the artists’ unmatched vision; but whilst its immediate predecessors relied on their charismatic yet limited depictions of football, PES6 focused on making the game work as a whole even if it had to let go of the series’ footballing charisma to achieve that. This was Konami’s strategy for the farewell to an age that defined football gaming history. Could it work? As we enter the game’s main menu, a couple of new features present themselves to the audience. First, the International Challenge mode expands the experience of a regular International Cup mode played with National Teams beyond just the (unlicensed, of course) final tournament: on the International Challenge game mode, one has to take his selected nation through the continental qualifiers and then on an unofficial World Cup; on each matchday, we are asked to call up the group of players that will be disputing that fixture. Most notably, this feature is inspired on the wonderful experiences the World Cup and Euro games created by EA were providing by including for the first time ever not just the top footballing nations in the world, but also the other more obscure ones on each continent; from Andorra to Liechtenstein in Europe, Qatar to Thailand in Asia. All of these nations have real players, though all of them with the usual fake names, as well as well-crafted likenesses – obviously you won’t find any Andorran footballer with a preset face but you can tell the producing team cared about representing these with some accuracy…more than FIFA did anyway -; as for their footballing attributes, I’ve always suspected they’re realistic enough according to what these teams produce on the pitch, though you can’t really tell for sure because, and here’s the only disappointing fact about this very interesting feature, the player can’t play with these teams; they can only be played against. Basically they’re hidden teams which do not appear anywhere else in the game (not even on the game’s Edit mode) and will only be available on the environment of the International Challenge mode. Even after more than a decade since PES6 was released, this remains one of the most elusive issues for modders to fix; so don’t be surprised if you download a PES6 mod with all the bells and whistles yet when you play an IC save, the original hidden teams and their squads remain the same as the original game’s database provided. The latter of these two new features is the Random Selection Match, a surprisingly attractive innovation that Pro Evo fans around the world did appreciate: so much so that despite being absent from the Pro Evo series after PES6, people kept metaphorically shouting in front of Konami’s headquarters, protesting for Random Selection Match to return to their beloved football game, smashing windows and all that. One decade later and they were finally heard, as PES2018 reintroduced that feature. In PES6, this mode clearly looks like the evolution of the former All-Star match mode from the late PSOne, early PS2 PES days; whereas that previous mode allowed one to play a game between two teams comprised of the best footballers of both Europe and the Rest of the World, on the Random Selection Match (RSM) there will always be a clash between PES and WE Athletic, yet instead of having to utilize the default All-Star rosters, the game comes up with a randomized selection of footballers from a certain, chosen region of the globe, or from the league you want. Plus, regardless of the group of players selected, you can then tweak both teams as much as you want as well. It’s Serie A vs. English League; Eredivisie vs. Rest of the World, Ligue 1 vs. Africa: it’s whatever you desire. At the time I was astonished to find that this game mode was able to accomplish the unthinkable, which is snatching my attention away from the Master League. I vividly remember how great of a tool the RSM also was when it comes to discovering talent from all around the world, sometimes acquiring those players for my Master League save later on. Sadly, Konami gave up on this very popular feature – the millionth reason that helps explain the series’ decline…? – which only makes PES6 as a retro-PES game all the more uniquely valuable. PES6 is regretfully a memorable game for the wrong reasons when it comes to a particularity of its database, one that caused a lot of stir back in 2007: the otherwise fake-named Bundesliga from PES4 and PES5 was removed from this PES iteration, even if despite the real player names, the team nomenclatures, crests and kits were all ‘Konamized’; from the Isars to the Westfalens. However, a full fake league comprised of teams (Team A, B, C, etc.) and players (Player001, 002, etc.) whose sole purpose is to serve as cannon fodder for some editing replaced the ‘German League’, curiously containing the exact same eighteen clubs pertaining to the Bundesliga, encouraging the ever-active Pro Evo editing community of the 2000s to get to work and recreate through amateur hands what the professionals were prevented from doing. And so they did…spectacularly. More on that later on… On the other hand, the Ligue 1 appears fully licensed for the first time ever on a Pro Evo iteration, as well as many National Teams and clubs from the ‘Other Clubs’ section. Konami was taking its first steps on providing a more official-looking simulation, given they had pretty much nailed the actual football played on the pitch. Over the years, this tendency evolved into an obsession that took its toll on the otherwise brilliant football simulation Konami provided, awkwardly so as the licensing part was never a part of Pro Evo’s identity and this series itself was the living proof that such a thing was merely secondary if one’s game provided an interesting, realistic depiction of the sport anyway. ------ Read the rest of this article here.
I started betting on the 1X2 markets long ago but I never had much success. Then in 2016 I decided to start playing with available data on the top European leagues. I am a Data Scientist and I was able to apply many of the techniques I use in my day to day job. I built a model that predicts expected points of each team in the league and I learnt a lot along the way. I applied the model to my weekly bets, had some wins and some disappointments but above all I started to enjoy the betting experience much more and was able to analyze matches much much faster. I realized that the strength of a model is that it summarizes teams strengths and highlights opportunities in the coming fixtures. It is not an end to itself and I believe the best recipe is to use a model as a support in the match analysis. This approach gives the best results in my experience. In the last months when there was little opportunity for betting I decided to write down the detailed steps I went through to build my model, together with the working code examples. This naturally turned into a small book. I believe that by learning a little coding anybody can create a model that predicts expected points, expected goals, corners and more, in a short time. The possibilities and applications in the betting market are huge. You can read here the first 3 chapters of the book for Free. Hope you enjoy it and if you want to dig a bit more the full book is here. Best of luck and happy betting!
Final Standings: 14-13-7 (W-L-D), 49 pts, +3 GD, 6th in the West In one word, the 2019 Portland Timbers season was draining. It was an endurance test for the players. It was an endurance test for even the most ardent supporters. And it was certainly an endurance test for a Front Office that invested serious capital into organizational infrastructure. Bookended by snowy affairs in the Rocky Mountains, a year filled with tantalizing potential melted away, leaving a passionate (some might say capricious) fanbase searching for explanations. So, what went wrong? Well, it was always going to be an uphill battle from the opening kick. Starting with the coldest game in MLS history in Colorado, the Timbers faced a daunting 12-match road trip to accommodate the impressive renovations to Providence Park’s East stand. After accumulating 1 pt from the first six matches, including blow out losses to both FC Cincinnati (!) and then-winless San Jose, the fanbase collectively smashed the panic button entering a match against ex-coach Caleb Porter and his Columbus Crew. However, for the next few months, we witnessed a different team and a different mentality. Three consecutive quality victories against Columbus, Toronto, and RSL brought the team back from the abyss. And a subsequent win against upstart Philadelphia saw Portland finish its road marathon at a respectable 14 points. Suddenly, the narrative flipped. Pundits consistently listed the Timbers at the top of their power rankings, and with 17 of the final 22 matches at one of the best home-field advantages in MLS, it seemed the positive momentum would prevail indefinitely. More importantly though, the Timbers had found their final piece to the puzzle: an elite, ruthless, and fiery DP striker in Brian Fernandez. Fresh off an impressive campaign with Necaxa in Liga MX, the Argentine became the first player in history to score in five consecutive regular-season games to open an MLS career. His clinicality and intensity raised the level of the squad, leading Steve Clark to don the classic Michael Myers mask from Halloween, declaring Providence Park as a “House of Horrors” for the opponent. But as it turned out, the team never truly reacclimated to the friendly confines of its home pitch. After four months (incl. preseason) away from home, the squad’s lethal counter-attacking style was far more suited for road matches which provided no impetus to play attractive soccer. Away victories at elite opponents including NYCFC, Seattle, and LAFC provided a stark contrast to disheartening home performances against the likes of Colorado, Orlando, and 10-man Chicago. And soon, the atmosphere off-the-field began to match the team’s sudden struggles on the pitch. Political viewpoints aside, the Iron Front protests and Diego Valeri’s contract impasse ignited an already contentious relationship between the Timbers Army and FO. Meanwhile, as the squad racked up disappointing home results due to uninspired offensive play, home attendance began to waver more so than years past. While the home sell-out streak remains to this day, the increased number of empty seats in Providence Park was a pretty blunt indication of increased apathy towards the organization. And then, there was the cherry on top. After missing consecutive matches due to a reported “stomach bug,” it became pretty clear Brian Fernandez was not the same player he was in the early summer. With a complicated and somber family history, Fernandez had struggled with substance abuse issues in the past but seemed to be on the path to full recovery during recent years. However, in October, Fernandez entered the league’s Substance Abuse and Behavioral Health Program, and just as his story arc in green-and-gold faded to black, the Timbers season finished with a whimper. Jefferson Savarino’s 87th-minute goal in snowy Utah knocked the Timbers out of Cup contention. Eleven months following an exciting run to MLS Cup, Portland entered the 2020 offseason weary, drained, and searching for a new beginning.
The Coach
Giovanni Savarese I expected 2019 to provide more clarity on Giovanni Savarese’s coaching aptitude, but as I sit here one year later, I’m still left with more questions than answers. Gio’s passion and fervor was a refreshing juxtaposition to Caleb Porter’s often smug demeanor, but his far more conservative style still ruffles the feathers of fans who yearn for the days of “Porterball.” While Savarese implemented a high-pressing, dynamic, and open style during his time at the Cosmos, he has yet to find similar success doing so in the Rose City. The past two seasons have exhibited nearly the same progression: start the season trying to play pressing-style soccer, get beat badly, and then resort to a conservative, counter-attacking approach. The truth of the matter is the conservative style fits the Portland Timbers. When the defense is solid, Diego Valeri and Sebastian Blanco are talented enough to win the game on the counter by themselves. However, this tactical inflexibility is essentially the sole on-field contributor for why the team struggled so mightily down the stretch. When teams packed it in and eliminated the possibility of counter-attacks, Portland could not break down the opposition, resorted to launching an MLS record number of crosses, and got scorched on counters going the other way. A taste of their own medicine if you will. In 2020, Savarese has no excuse. There’s no road trip to start the season, he has a loaded arsenal of complimentary attacking weapons, and now it’s abundantly clear the Timbers must learn how to control games from the front foot. An identity is useful, but flexibility is a requirement to be great. The club wants to (has to) win now, and they’ve invested significantly into personnel and infrastructure to do so. Now, it’s up to Savarese to lead the team to silverware.
Departures
Brian Fernandez (ST): This one hurts. There are no two ways about it. Fernandez truly convinced GM Gavin Wilkinson and TD Ned Grabavoy that he was past his struggles, but unfortunately, it didn’t turn out to be the case. As Wilkinson stated in The Athletic, “if we could go back and do it again, we wouldn’t have done it,” adding “what I will say is the word fraud exists for a reason.” Rumors suggest Necaxa covered up a failed drug test, and MLS is currently launching a lawsuit to help the club recoup the transfer fee. While Wilkinson suggests Fernandez was a bust, the truth is he scored 15 goals in ~25 games in all comps, showing a ruthlessness in front of goal that rivaled the Martinez’s and Ruidiaz’s of the league. As people who have met him can attest, he’s a vibrant and kind individual regardless of the fact he continues to face difficult obstacles off the field. It's just such a disappointment that it didn’t all come together, and I pray for his health and safety. Zarek Valentin (RB): This one hurts too. Zarek was a staple of the community, someone who embraced Portland as his home, and was as approachable as any professional athlete. With initiatives like wearing a rainbow ribbon in his hair to fundraise for homeless LGBT+ youth, Zarek was an ideal steward for the club and community. With our lack of fullback depth, leaving him unprotected in the expansion draft was far from a popular decision - one that strained an already frayed relationship between the Front Office and some fans. That said, as amazing as Zarek is, his lack of athleticism was starting to catch up to him. He even admitted some struggles down the stretch, and as more talented/athletic wingers enter the league, his minutes might soon reflect it. Zarek’s versatility, eccentricity, and civic involvement will certainly be missed though. Houston, you’ve got a great dude. Claude Dielna (CB): The most puzzling move of 2019, it didn’t take an acute observer to recognize that Dielna struggled in MLS. Wilkinson and Grabavoy took a one-year flier on Dielna to be the 4th-stringer, and the outcome was fairly predictable. He possesses a silky left foot which allows him to pick sharp passes out of the back, but he can’t run, can’t jump, and can’t defend 1v1. All of those attributes are pretty essential requirements for playing CB in any league, so it’s no surprise to see the organization not renew his contract. In the end, I wouldn’t suggest Dielna self-immolated like many horrific Timbers CBs of yesteryear (see McKenzie, Raushawn), but I highly doubt anyone will be pining for his return. Foster Langsdorf (ST): Langsdorf may be used as an example of a Homegrown the Timbers failed to move through the ranks, but letting him go makes sense (unfortunately.) In a 2019 season essential for his development, he failed to make any significant impact at the USL level, and at 24, he would’ve entered the 2020 campaign in the exact spot he did the previous two seasons. Despite some clever finishes in the 2018 USL season, he’s not a legitimate option for the first team in this day in age - especially when similarly-aged strikers Felipe Mora, Jaroslaw Niezgoda, and Jeremy Ebobisse boast far more developed skillsets. Modou Jadama (CB/RB): Jadama made two total appearances for the first team over two seasons, including one start at RB at Montreal in 2019. To be frank, he didn’t particularly shine as an MLS-caliber player during that time, so his opportunity to cement himself in the organization’s plans came and went. Now at Atlanta United 2, I think he’ll be a good fit for a full-time USL position, although we probably could have used CB depth with Bill Tuiloma’s injury. Kendall McIntosh (GK): McIntosh was an undersized goalkeeper whose frame and athleticism is reminiscent of the likes of Nick Rimando. For the most part, he was a career T2 netminder that was far too raw in some areas to mount a challenge against experienced keepers like Jeff Attinella and Steve Clark. Now a member of the Red Bulls via the Re-Entry Draft, I doubt McIntosh finds many more minutes outside of the USL, but he seemed like a good dude and we all wish him the best.
2020 Outlook:
So, where does that leave us for the 2020 season? Well, pretty close to the same spot we found ourselves last year. In the preceding two seasons, it was clear the Timbers possessed enough talent to capture silverware, yet surpassing the final hurdle proved to be too much. As a result, continuity in terms of roster management remains among the league’s most stable. Ultimately, Portland took the field March 3 in Colorado with 10 of the 11 starters from MLS Cup the previous December, and this season, the only departure considered a surefire starter was Brian Fernandez. However, the main difference in 2020 comes down to the acquisitions. The Timbers FO utilized the abnormally long break to load up with an arsenal of talent, providing a stark divergence from the quiet transfer window in 2019. As much as I want to compliment the FO for its hard work this offseason, acquiring fresh blood was essential. Key pieces of the core including Larrys Mabiala, Diego Chara, Sebastian Blanco, and Diego Valeri are all exiting their prime window, and the Timbers must capitalize before that window slams shut. Consequently, four of the five names you’ll see listed in the acquisitions section below were brought in to have an immediate impact and elevate an already talented squad. As a result, in terms of pure on-paper talent, this is a Top 5 caliber MLS team. Whether Savarese can coalesce that talent into a functioning, dynamic, and successful unit is an entirely different story however. It honestly feels like a boom-or-bust type season, and I’m worried about how they’ll navigate the natural roller-coaster swings that MLS’s parity generates. So, I’ll leave you with this: if the Timbers figure out how to maintain defensive structure without resorting to a conservative shell, they’ll be one of the best teams in the league. If not, all bets are off.
Acquisitions:
Jarosław Niezgoda (ST): The Polish DP doesn’t have to single-handedly replace Brian Fernandez’s goal contributions, but make no mistake about it, the Timbers brought Niezgoda in to make an immediate and profound impact on the scoresheet. At only 24, Jarek arrives with a high pedigree having notched double-digit goals in multiple seasons for one of Poland’s powerhouses in Legia Warsaw. Ultimately, it makes sense European clubs like Bordeaux and Torino were sniffing around the striker, as he’s quite mobile for his size, can finish well with both feet, and is clever with his movements inside the box. And say what you will about the Ekstraklasa, it has a strange knack for producing efficient goalscorers, including Niezgoda’s Legia predecessor Nemanja Nikolic. However, there is a massive catch: Niezgoda has struggled with injuries throughout his career. In a league famous for physical play, and on a team that has experienced its fair share of injury-riddled seasons, Jarek’s fitness is a legitimate concern. While his congenital heart issues seem to be held in check, Legia fans are quick to mention “he's made of glass, and it's hard to keep him in shape for the whole season.” The Timbers’ physio staff will have their work cut out for them to keep Niezgoda on the pitch and scoring goals. Note: Niezgoda has yet to feature in preseason due to the recovery timeline from a heart ablation procedure during his medical. We likely won’t see him in the XI for the first few weeks of 2020. Felipe Mora (ST): Niezgoda’s injury-checkered past is an important factor for why Mora’s arrival is such a critical addition. The 26-year-old Chilean seemingly fell into the Timbers lap in a series of fortuitous circumstances, as they acquired him on a TAM loan deal from Pumas in Liga MX. Normally, Mora would be a DP caliber acquisition, and in fact, he was considered a serious target for the final DP slot last year before the club opted for Fernandez. However, after falling out of favor, Pumas were willing to let him go in a manner that accommodated Portland’s limited remaining budget space. Mora provides a divergent style from Niezgoda’s channel-running and Ebobisse’s hold-up ability. He operates on a true poacher’s instinct, and his industrious approach will provide a complementary presence to any of the other strikers. Dario Župarić (CB): If there’s one offseason acquisition that is more critical to the team's success than the others, Dario Župarić is that guy. Throughout the Timbers MLS history, CB has easily been their most troublesome spot, and they’ve yet to replace Liam Ridgewell’s contributions since his departure last year. Say what you will about Liam’s off-the-field persona: his magnetism, leadership, organizational skills, and distribution were undoubtedly influential to the club’s performance. Župarić, for lack of a better statement, is essentially the true Ridgewell replacement. At 27-years-old, the Croatian arrives with 90+ matches under his belt at Pescara in Italy and Rijeka in Croatia, a club that has already produced productive MLS players like Héber and Damir Kreilach. Early reports in training regard him as “smooth and confident,” and even if that confidence has gotten the better of him occasionally, those characteristics exemplify why Gio had never received “more messages from friends saying you’ve brought in a very good player.” In the end though, the pressure is on Dario to perform on the pitch. MLS athleticism poses a unique challenge, and there’s little flexibility to compensate for any struggles. His adjustment to MLS must be quick. Yimmi Chara (RM): Recognize the last name? In a courtship that has lasted as long as the Timbers MLS era itself, Wilkinson finally brought the youngest Chara brother to the Rose City. Acquired as a DP from Atletico Mineiro, there is concern about whether Yimmi’s G+A output will justify the reported $6 million transfer fee. Throughout his career, he’s never been the type of player to light up the scoresheet, but it’s difficult to dispossess him and he provides lightning-quick pace that this roster lacks. With multiple attacking options, I honestly don’t anticipate much pressure to fill the stat sheet, and his familial connection to the organization should facilitate a more seamless transition. Plus, it’s difficult enough for the opposition to face one Chara - it’ll certainly be a pain in the ass to confront two. Blake Bodily (LM): The HG left-footer is a fairly highly-regarded prospect coming out of the Pac-12, and he showed flashes of quality during his time at T2 a few years ago. With the depth on the wings, I can’t imagine he’ll see much of any first-team minutes. I could be wrong, especially if things go south for any reason, but let’s revisit this signing a year or two from now.
A word on everyone else:
Goalkeepers: Steve Clark (GK): Without a doubt, Clark was the surprise player of 2019. Boasting the highest save percentage and second-lowest GAA in the league, Clark made numerous highlight-reel saves after taking over for Jeff Attinella in late April. While the occasional mental lapse defined much of his career up to this point, the 33-year-old was nearly flawless in all phases of play last season. However, there’s legitimate concern that this outstanding form is not replicable throughout the next campaign. After Attinella’s regression to the mean following a career year, one can understand why the Front Office might have been apprehensive to give him a sizable pay raise - even if his performances warranted it. That said, Clark’s got the new deal in his pocket and will certainly be the starter opening day vs Minnesota. Jeff Attinella (GK): As highlighted above, few Timbers had a more ill-fated 2019 campaign than Jeff Attinella. After a torrid 2018 season, Attinella’s performances were marred by poor decision after poor decision until his year concluded with season-ending shoulder surgery. You have to feel for the guy too, as for the first time in his career, he entered an MLS regular season as the unquestioned starter. We’ll see how he recovers from the shoulder injury, but if Clark’s consistency remains and Aljaž Ivačič shows promise, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Timbers move him while he still has some value. Aljaž Ivačič (GK): If there’s a Timber who had a more disastrous 2019 than Jeff Attinella though, it’s probably Aljaž Ivačič. The 26-year-old Slovenian was acquired last offseason to be the goalkeeper of the future, but a significant leg surgery last February took him out of team activities for most of the year. When he did return with T2 in late summer, things did not look great to say the least. It is undoubtedly difficult to adapt to a new country, but Ivačič’s struggles were worryingly apparent. Most of his goals conceded for T2 looked similar to this, where he was either in the wrong position, extremely hesitant to come off his line, or strikingly late to react to the opponent. These are fundamental issues that can hopefully be chalked up to rust and then addressed with a full preseason. If not, Aljaž might go down as one of the worst signings in club history. Defenders: Jorge Moreira (RB): Moreira possesses the talent to be the best RB in the league, but sporadically found himself a liability last season. After years spent with Argentine powerhouse River Plate, the 30-year-old Paraguayan was naturally inclined to push up the pitch since his teams had often dominated the game’s flow. As a result, the Timbers’ conservative style and league’s athleticism caught him off guard, as he had an unfortunate propensity to be out of position early in 2019. However, he mostly adjusted over the course of the year, and his power, crossing ability, and dynamism are crucial to the team.Even with the occasional poor clearance, Moreira is a lockdown starter and few RBs in MLS have his offensive weaponry and pedigree. His loan only lasts until June 30 however, though I’d fully expect the Front Office to lock him down on a permanent deal. Update: the Timbers right-side defense has been tragic this preseason, and much of that has to do with Moreira’s play. He’ll have to re-adjust or else he’ll revert back to being a liability again Larrys Mabiala (CB): With his pearly-white smile, cool demeanor, and commanding aerial ability, the big French-Congolese CB is one of the most respected players in the Timbers’ locker room. In a position that is a perennial revolving door of underperforming wreckage, Mabiala has been the one “written-in-ink” starter since mid-2017, and his veteran savvy is integral to the squad’s success. But at age 32, Larrys’ value is not embodied by his individual qualities but more so the partnership he forms with Župarić. His physical presence will always be vital to an otherwise undersized team, however, he lacks the turn of pace and distribution ability that would place him among the elite CBs in MLS. As a result, Larrys and Dario must discover how to paper over each other’s weaknesses by performing to their unique capabilities: Župarić covers ground well and can initiate attacking movements while Mabiala handles physical strikers and cleans up loose balls in the 18. In the end, his consistency will be as influential as any player on the roster. If for any reason he performs below the norm, there is simply not enough quality depth behind him to overcome it. Bill Tuiloma (CB): Tuiloma is not spectacular by any means, but he’s an ideal player to provide sporadic minutes. The 24-year-old Kiwi is cheap, versatile, and possesses enough technical quality to score the odd banger. It’s a shame a calf injury will rule him out for the next few weeks, as the team could use his flexibility for spot duty at CB, RB, and even defensive midfield. If he recovers fully and Župarić struggles to adapt to the league’s athleticism, expect him to mount a challenge for starting minutes. Julio Cascante (CB): The Costa Rican CB is best described as a high-ceiling, low-floor player whose ceiling continues to lower year after year. As far as backup CBs go, he’s probably adequate, but the guy went from a fringe national-teamer to virtually off-the-radar since his arrival in Portland. Though his height and build forge a formidable aerial presence, he’s yet to resolve occasional mental lapses and improve his subpar distribution. But Julio’s most maddening characteristic is his inconsistency. Perhaps the best thing you can say about a Cascante performance is that you didn’t notice him. Unfortunately, he tends to stick out for all the wrong reasons. Maybe a little more familiarity with the league will help the 26-year-old raise his level in 2020. I’m not exceedingly hopeful though. Jorge Villafaña (LB): El Sueño hasn’t been the same player since his departure to Santos Laguna after MLS Cup 2015. Still an excellent crosser, Villafaña really struggled with pacey wingers towards the beginning of the season, although there are some whispers he was often gutting through minor knocks. Even with an uptick of form over the course of the campaign, there is legitimate concern he’s lost a step and will be a liability in the backline. I love the man as much as the next guy, but I’d say the uneasiness is valid. Let’s hope he proves us all wrong. Marco Farfan (LB): The lack of confidence in Villafaña would be less of an issue if Zarek Valentin were still suiting up in the green-and-gold because Marco Farfan is as fragile as a potato chip. The HG LB is not the most athletic individual, but his technical quality is probably proficient enough to play at this level. Farfan still has to evolve as a 1v1 defender, though he’ll certainly get looks this year if he can manage to stay healthy. Note: We still need a backup RB. It could be former NYRB, IMFC, and Dynamo player Chris Duvall. 20-year-old Venezuelan Pablo Bonilla is another option, but he’s at T2 for the meantime. Midfielders: Diego Valeri (CAM): When all is said and done, I hope MLS fans and media take a moment to appreciate just how good Diego Valeri was. Since 2015, we’ve witnessed impressive names take home the Landon Donovan MVP award including Giovinco, Villa, Josef, and Vela. Sandwiched in between those names you’ll find Diego Valeri. Only the ninth MLS player to reach the elusive 70G, 70A Club, Valeri took the Timbers from a hapless expansion side to a perennial playoff contender. And from my admittedly biased perspective, I don’t think he gets enough credit for doing so. But don’t take it from me, take it from Albert Rusnak, who accurately captures the true essence of the Maestro in this interview. For the miracles performed on the pitch, his importance and presence in the community are just as admirable. However, times are changing for Valeri, and it’s best exemplified by the fact we almost lost him over a contract dispute this offseason. By taking a TAM deal, Diego not only affirmed his commitment to the organization but allowed them to make moves to best ensure he doesn’t retire with only a single major MLS title to his name. I’d expect the Timbers staff to exercise more load management with him this campaign, but by no means does that change his status as a pillar of the club and community. Build the statue. Sebastian Blanco (LM/RM): Sebastian Blanco is one of those guys who never seems to score a bad goal. The fiery Argentine may not be the face of the franchise off the pitch, but the decision to extend his DP contract over Valeri is a hint towards Blanco’s importance on the field. After posting his second consecutive double-digit assist campaign, Blanco’s quality across all attacking midfield positions is unquestioned. That said, 2020 is a pivotal season for the Timbers’ oldest Designated Player. Soon to be 32, the clock is ticking on Blanco’s heyday, and he’ll certainly aspire to outperform 2019’s underwhelming tally of six goals from 106 shot attempts. Now surrounded by a wealth of complimentary attacking pieces though, I’d expect a rejuvenated Seba come March. Bet the over on six goals. Diego Chara (CDM): If there’s anyone who can conquer the inevitability of fathertime, Diego Chara is the guy. Soon to be 34-years-old, Chara’s performance metrics — involving areas such as speed and distance covered — reached all-time highs last year. His importance to the club over the past decade cannot be overstated, and we were all ecstatic to see him finally partake in an MLS All Star Game last season. The Colombian possesses a pillowy first touch, an immense soccer IQ, and a fearless presence in the middle of the park, and there simply will be no replacing him when he finally does choose to retire. But to be honest with you, I think he’s still got a few more Best XI caliber seasons in him. He just ages like a fine wine. Andrés Flores (CM): Hell, I’m just gonna copy and paste exactly what I wrote last year because it’s still just as applicable. Andres Flores is like a Toyota Camry - solid if unspectacular. He doesn't have the sexy style that will garner all the attention, but when push comes to shove and you need to get from point A to point B, he’ll do the job (at a very low price too!). Look for him to assist in spot-duty once he returns from injury, but his most important contributions will likely be found in the little things off the pitch. Cristhian Paredes (CM): At only 21 years of age, the full Paraguayan international started over 30 matches the past two seasons and has also emerged as the surefire midfield partner to Diego Chara. After a 2018 campaign that saw a significant adjustment period, Paredes looked far more composed in 2019, adding late-runs into the box into his arsenal midway through last season. However, no longer on loan from Club America, Paredes will face more organizational pressure to be a day-in, day-out starter this campaign. His ranginess and ability to break up play are unquestioned, but he needs to become a bit cleaner on the ball and more confident playing out of tight spaces. That said, there’s a reason the club has invested more capital into the promising midfielder: he has the potential to be a significant contributor for years to come. Marvin Loría (LM/RM): In the next few seasons, I’d wager Marvin Loría will become the poster child for the Timbers youth development structure. With a comparatively underdeveloped and shallow Homegrown talent pool, Portland picks up guys like Loría out of foreign youth programs to develop through the Timbers pipeline. The 22-year-old Costa Rican international showed significant promise last season, and he can play a true inverted winger role - a unique style in terms of this roster. While he may see time at LM and CAM, I love him cutting in from the right, as he can deliver bangers like this and allow Jorge Moreira to bulldoze forward. At a league minimum salary, Loría provides the cheap and talented depth which makes this attack’s outlook so promising. I can’t wait to see what strides he makes this season (once he returns from an underpublicized/undisclosed injury). Andy Polo (RM): Not many people in the Timbers fanbase understand why Andy Polo is still on the roster, let alone competing for starting minutes. In 2,860 MLS minutes, the Peruvian winger has only managed a dismal one goal and three assists - a statline that is considerably worse than ineffective wingers of the past including Kalif Alhassan, Sal Zizzo, and Franck Songo’o. He’s not an outright liability, and occasionally puts in a shift defensively, but he essentially exists solely to occupy space. Now entering his third season, Polo’s best string of matches came as the third CM in a 4-3-2-1 just before the 2018 World Cup. He’s since gathered looks in preseason as a #8 in a 4-3-2-1 and showed flashes but is still incomplete. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Tomas Conechny (CF/LM/RM): The 21-year-old Argentine enters the 2020 campaign a relative unknown, and though the club thought enough of him to exercise his full-time purchase option from San Lorenzo, his fit on the squad has yet to be fully discerned. Rumored to be one of the better headers-of-the-ball on the team, he showed occasional creative sparks in late-game situational appearances but has yet to prove he deserves starting minutes. We hear quotes akin to “he doesn’t yet know how good he can be,” but it still isn’t obvious that a particular position suits him well or if he even possesses a skillset that allows him to be a difference-maker at this level. For all intents and purposes, he’s likely to end up Diego Valeri’s understudy even if Conechny has yet to show the same precision and danger at a playmaking second-forward role. As a result, it remains to be seen if the high-rated prospect grows into a significant piece of the puzzle or if his lack of positional clarity ultimately hampers his development. Dairon Asprilla (RM): Dairon Asprilla plays at an all-star caliber level if one of two things are true: the Timbers are on the verge of postseason elimination or he’s playing on T2. If neither of those two things are true, he’s often more useless than a turn signal on a BMW. Some wonder if he possesses compromising pictures of Wilkinson or MP, otherwise there’s very little to explain why he’s one of the longest-tenured Timbers - especially considering he’s been in-and-out of the doghouse almost every year. Word out of training suggests he’s been one of the best players in camp, but we’ve been down this road before - if it’s not Oct. or Nov., Asprilla often looks lost on the pitch. Sidenote: 99% of Dairon’s shot attempts get thwarted due to his foolishly long windup, but when he does get a hold of one, they stay hit. Eryk Williamson (CM): The HG midfielder (by way of D.C.) found starting minutes in spot appearances last fall, and he looked competent if unremarkable. For T2, Williamson often occupied more advanced positions, but I think he projects best as a ball-shuttling #8 in this squad. In particular, I can see him fitting into Andy Polo’s old role as a CM next to Chara and/or Paredes in a 4-3-2-1, as his passing and combination play provide a diverse look from the other two. Overall, Williamson finds himself in a decent situation to get game action this year, and I’m interested to see how he develops and grows in confidence in 2020. Renzo Zambrano (CDM): Another international brought through the T2 pipeline, Zambrano is essentially Diego Chara’s backup at the #6. Since George Fochive left following the 2015 season, the Timbers have struggled to find a suitable defensive backup in the central midfield. Renzo is now that guy. The 25-year-old Venezuelan appeared in 10 matches last season and struggled immensely in fixtures against Colorado and Atlanta, but showed flashes of positivity in thrashings of Houston and Vancouver. 2020 will require more consistency from Zambrano who doesn’t possess the same physicality or power as Chara - but then again, few do. As a result, if I were Savarese, I’d try to mold Zambrano into a fulcrum/anchor type midfielder in the form of a Uri Rosell or Scott Caldwell. He’s a capable passer, and if he simplifies his game to shield the backline, he’ll be an asset to the team. If not, he’ll likely over-extend himself, and his midfield partner will be forced to work more tirelessly to maintain solid defensive shape. Renzo is likely the first option off the bench whenever Chara or Paredes are unavailable, so his growth is critical to the team’s success this year. Forwards: Jeremy Ebobisse (ST): Since Niezgoda and Mora’s arrival, some fans and media have denounced the organization for burying the 23-year-old American on the depth chart and hindering his development. Here’s why I think that’s an overly-sensationalized viewpoint:
As Wilkinson has correctly identified, Ebobisse will miss a good chunk of the early season for Olympic qualification, and with Niezgoda’s injury history, there needs to be other legitimate options to start upfront (i.e. not Dairon Asprilla).
In 2018, Ebobisse entered the season ‘stuck’ behind two DP-type strikers in Fanendo Adi and Samuel Armenteros. Guess who emerged on top? Ebobisse. There will be multiple competitions, two-striker formations, and rotations that allow him to earn quality minutes.
This idea that the organization is almost trying to sabotage his development is an outrageous claim. Ebobisse was the only player on the squad to play in every match last season and only finished behind Chara, Blanco, and Valeri in terms of total minutes played. Granted, he played a fair few matches at LW (not ideal, but he wasn’t outright terrible), but the team did have its best stretch of success with him and Fernandez on the pitch together.
But the one factor people must acknowledge is this: Ebobisse still hasn’t developed the it factor that other MLS strikers have - at least not yet. When Fernandez arrived, his ruthlessness was a stark contrast to Ebobisse’s often less-goal-hungry runs and occasional lack of clarity in the final third. Jeremy is a decent finisher, even with a few missed sitters, but he’s still not consistent enough with the direct runs off the shoulder that separate good from great. He’ll hopefully continue to develop a wider range of skills, but he’s not yet the guy to put this team over the top. Predicted Starting XI: Primarily: 4-2-3-1 Other likely options: 4-3-2-1 or 4-4-2 Best Case Scenario: A top playoff seed and a challenge for either the Supporter’s Shield or MLS Cup. Savarese effectively implements tactical flexibility, Niezgoda and Mora combine for 20+ goals, and Cristhian Paredes takes the next step forward in his development. While Župarić locks down the defense, one of Valeri or Blanco mounts a Best XI campaign, and Diego Chara makes a second consecutive All-Star Game appearance. Sprinkle in a Cascadia Cup alongside a harmonious relationship between the Front Office and Timbers Army, and you have a damn successful year. Worst Case Scenario: Pretty much the opposite of what you see above. Niezgoda can’t stay healthy while the core pieces’ form collectively falls off a cliff. Those in the Army who hold a personal vendetta against Merritt Paulson blow a trivial issue out of proportion causing a full-on revolt from the supporter’s group. Savarese proves to be an average coach with exploitable flaws, and the team fails to qualify for the playoffs in a competitive Western Conference. Significant spending, no tangible results. A wasted year. Realistic Scenario: Well, either of those two scenarios could qualify as realistic. But like all Timbers seasons, it’s most realistic to be somewhere in between. There’ll be stretches of outright panic, and there’ll be other times where we all convince ourselves the Timbers will win MLS Cup. Some of the signings hit: let’s go with Župarić - while other signings underwhelm due to extenuating circumstances: probably Niezgoda (and his glass skeleton). The team finishes in the middle of the pack - a team that no one wants to face in October - but one that is equally liable to beat themselves. Prediction: Even for someone as pessimistic as I am, I won’t predict the worst-case scenario. Nevertheless, I can’t shake the discouraging feeling that the Timbers will squander its immense talent again. A disappointing 6th or 7th place finish is in store after another taxing roller-coaster season. However, I’ll go out on a limb to say Portland does win a Cascadia Cup or USOC - some sort of silverware that convinces everybody the obvious flaws can be overcome in 2021. Blanco has a great 2020 season. The other pieces show flashes brilliance, yet can’t quite string together enough consistency to let the attack fire on all cylinders. Savarese will keep his job but enters the 2021 campaign on the hotseat. It’ll be another case of “close, but not close enough.”
Welcome to the triumphant return of the Premier League Previews, a series where a fan gives an overview of his team for your perusal, and I get an excuse to take pot-shots at other clubs. This will run until the eve of the Premier League, taking a look at each club in turn. Today we're out of London but paradoxically still on the Tube line as we visit Watford. About
It's safe to say most Watford fans were apprehensive going into the 2018/19 season. Javi Gracia becoming the first head coach since the Championship to remain in charge from the previous season was a plus, but only the permanent acquisition of loanee Deulofeu and goalkeeper Ben Foster looked to improve the first team, with fans crying out for a striker and centre back. Paul Merson and Phil McNulty each proceeded to predict Watford's relegation for the fourth successive year. However, the Hornets came flying out of the traps, winning their first four league games, including a comeback to win 2-1 against Tottenham. This led to Gracia being awarded the Manager of the Month award for August. Despite continuing to put in largely good performances, some poor finishing and defensive errors meant that Watford won just two of their next twelve games, slipping from the lofty heights of 3rd to a season low of 12th. During this time they were knocked out of the League Cup on penalties by Tottenham, in a game bizarrely played at Stadium MK due to the unavailability of Wembley or the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. December, January and February brought better fortunes, with Watford only losing three games in all competitions in this time, all to top six clubs, despite playing 9 out of their first 11 games of 2019 away in all competitions. The depth in the squad was utilised in the FA Cup, with the team reaching the quarter final without putting out a full strength side, much to the anger of Chris Sutton. A full strength team was played for this quarter final against Crystal Palace, who Watford beat 2-1 for the third time in the season to progress to Wembley. In the league, the Hornets were embroiled in the race for Europa League football, periodically reaching the hallowed 7th spot before swiftly dropping out. A 1-0 win at home against Marco Silva's Everton was a highlight as Watford continued to struggle against the top six. The FA Cup Semi Final was the match of the season for Watford. Up against a Wolves side they were also competing for 7th place with, Watford found themselves 2-0 down with 11 minutes to go, with goals from Doherty and Jimenez, the latter celebrating with a mask which drew comment from the usually reserved Troy Deeney. However, a sublime lob from Gerard Deulofeu gave Watford hope before a stoppage time Deeney penalty took the tie to extra time, where Deulofeu added a second to take Watford to their 2nd cup final in history. In the league, a 2-1 win against Huddersfield put Watford in 7th with three out of four games left at home. If they won all these they were guaranteed European football. u/TheJeck, not wanting to miss a minute of the race for Europe, ran a mile from Watford Junction station to make it to the fixture against Southampton for kick off - only for Shane Long to score the fastest goal in Premier League history. Twat. Watford drew 1-1, then lost 2-1 to Wolves to effectively end our hopes of coming second. A 3-0 loss to Chelsea confirmed that we would take just 3 points from games with the top six, and a 4-1 defeat to West Ham meant that Watford finished 11th, just the third match this season they finished outside the top ten. However, there was still hope of a first trophy in the clubs history and a Europa League spot to boot through the FA Cup final. With Jose Holebas' suspension rescinded, Watford were full strength going into their match with league champions Manchester City, who were gunning for an unprecedented domestic treble. However, it was not to be, with City running out 6-0 winners. Regardless, at 5-0 down the Watford fans all started chanting and waving fans, showing what a successful season it had been in their eyes.
This Season
It has been a quieter transfer window than usual for Watford, with just two arrivals at the time of writing. The Hornets have been crying out for a new centre back since last summer and Craig Dawson brings Premier League experience at a low price. Tom Dele-Bashiru is a promising young midfielder who didn't quite make the grade at Manchester City. Watford are also currently in negotiations for Rennes winger Ismalia Sarr for what would be a club record fee, which have been going on for several weeks, making it quite the Sarr-ga (I'm not even sorry). In January Watford will finally complete the signing of Fluminese striker Joao Pedro, widely seen to be a hugely promising talent and already being watched by several of the world's biggest clubs. The fact that Watford have already secured his signature is a testament to the scouting network in South America. In terms of departures, only Miguel Britos has been released from the first team squad, with veteran goalkeeper Heurelho Gomes, who was "99% sure" he would retire, signing on for another year. Some young players have been loaned out, most notably promising defender Ben Wilmot to Swansea. In terms of business to complete, Watford will want to finally get the Sarr signing over the line as well as find a loan for youngsters Cucho Hernandez and Pontus Dahlberg. With Javi Gracia having been at the helm for one and a half years and arguably the most important transfer business of keeping the likes of Doucoure and Deulofeu taken care of, expectations going into the new season are higher than they have been since the 1980s. Relegation is seen as a possibility but not a real concern, with fans believing we will finish mid table or possibly top half. Transfers Highlights
Player
Type
From
To
Fee(£m)
Miguel Britos
Perm
Watford
Released
Free
Craig Dawson
Perm
West Brom
Watford
5.49
Tom Dele-Bashiru
Perm
Man City
Watford
Free
Joao Pedro
Perm (Jan 20)
Fluminese
Watford
2.25
All incoming/outgoing transfersFull 2019-20 squad 3 players to watch out for Gerard Deulofeu The La Masia product made his loan at Vicarage Road permanent last summer, and despite injury disrupting the start of his season and a new position at striker ended up top scorer, with some eye catching performances such as his hat trick against Cardiff and his super-sub appearance in the FA Cup Semi Final. With a full pre season and more positional familiarity, he can achieve big things this season. Etienne Capoue Last year's fan's Player of the Season is a criminally underrated player by non Watford supporters - the work he does in the defensive midfield brings the best out of players around him. Has struck up an excellent partnership with Doucoure over the past 18 months which should continue into this season. Domingos Quina Doubt he'll be starting at home to Brighton, but Quina has all the potential to be a Premier League star. Signed from West Ham on deadline day last year after turning up in the car park ten minutes before the deadline, Quina showed his creatively, comfort with the ball at his feet and ability to hit long range shots with either foot in his handful of appearances last season, and will keep the first team firmly on their toes. What the fans think Thanks to /Watford_FCfor their help.
How do you think this season will go?
I expect us to finish around mid table. Very quiet transfer window in both regards so far. We have all of the same squad that got us to the cup final and should really have got us into Europe if Deeney, Cathcart and Foster hadn't decided to shit the bed in the final few games of the season; however the other teams around us have significantly strengthened though hard to see us finishing above West Ham, Everton, Wolves, Leicester now.
I’d say we will end up roughly in the same place as last season. We added Craig Dawson, so our defense should be better, but I don’t think we’ll have as good run of form against outside of the top 6 as we did last season. I’d say we will end around 9th place, maybe have a decent cup run again as well.
Last season was fantastic, and everyone will be looking to build on 11th. Another cup run is probable, but I think we'll struggle to improve much in the league. We'll be safe from relegation but are lacking some quality and depth compared to Everton, Wolves and Leicester. In my opinion we'll be fighting for top half with West Ham, Bournemouth and whichever of the promoted clubs hits the ground running, with some strong home games against the top six (Liverpool excluded). A cup exit in the semis to a top 6 team.
Which player is going to be your star of the season and why?
I'd have to go for Deulofeu. He grew into his striker role over the Season, building up a decent partnership with Deeney later on in the Season. He is woeful in the air, isn't as positionally aware like Gray by drifting out wide at times when he needs to stay more central and has a penchant for doing too much rather than take the easier option but he's very quick, has developed a fairly good finish and becoming more consistent in his performances, slowly but surely. Still has a good amount of work to do but made leaps and bounds last Season in converting his role out wide to a central one.
Doucoure. He was usurped by Capoue last season in terms of being our best cm, or even our best player. If he wants to go to a UCL team, as he has stated, then he needs another top season, like he did on 17/18, and I think he will. Deulofeu will want to prove last seasons scoring antics weren’t a fluke. Could also be a breakout season for Domingos Quina.
Star of the season will be Gerard Deulofeu of course but I think Etienne Capoue will quietly have another season as one of the best midfielders outside the top 6 and the same for Ben Foster being one of the best keepers outside the top 6. Del boy being our top scorer. Another name to mention that I hope gets some serious game time and becomes a star of the cups is Domingos Quina, very excited whenever this lad plays.
Gracia predominantly uses 4-2-2-2, and has sparingly used 4-2-3-1 last Season. Against QPR in the Friendly very recently 5-3-2 (Wing backs) but we will be using 4-2-2-2 again this Season as our main formation. This is our current squad and probable line up, assuming we sign Sarr.
Foster will be number one but Bachmann has been brought back to challenge. Javi typically plays 4 at the back, expect Dawson to partner Cathcart with some fullback rotation. Deeney and Deulofeu will start together up front most weeks; we rely heavily on their mentality and skill respectively. I'd expect a flat 4 midfield, but Javi does tinker from time to time. Hughes-Capoue-Doucouré-Sarr(?) most likely, with some shakeup to fit in Quina or play Hughes more centrally.
I expect the exact same 4-2-2-2 as last season, but with Dawson substituting in for Mariappa which will look something like this. If Sarr does come as has been strongly suggested, I expect he will take one of Hughes / Pereyra's positions.
by NickTM The Manager: I've got to say, Javi Gracia is probably one of the least notable coaches in the league to me. He's just... there. There's no doubting his experience, though, having had spells in Spain, Greece and Russia before plying his trade in the Prem. Last season was about as good as a generally mid-table club can hope for; never in any danger of relegation whatsoever, a highest league finish since the formation of the Premier League, a cup final run and all done with a positive net spend. The Team: Watford bring to bear a hugely multinational squad, with 17 nations represented in the first team squad alone. A well-balanced side, the hugely-experienced trio of Ben Foster, Craig Cathcart and Adrian Mariappa make up the goalkeeper and centre of defence respectively. Gracia favours something approaching a 4-2-2-2, presumably partially as a way of including all of his talented central midfielders, and so Aboulaye Doucoure, Etienne Capou, Will Hughes and Roberto Pereyra can all be found on the pitch at the same time. Up front, the mercurial Gerard Deulofeu supports Troy Deeney, who is entering his tenth season at the club. It's a strong side across the board, but despite the excellence in the centre of the pitch questions might be being asked of old warhorse Deeney if he gets off to a poor start given his 9 league goal return last season. The addition of Craig Dawson is likely a good one given Mariappa has generally found most of his success at Prem level as a rotational utility player, but it's probably fair to say Cathcart and Dawson comprise a pairing that is merely OK rather than particularly good. It's lucky, then, that Ben Foster remains one of the better keepers in the Premier League behind them. Why to like them: Gerard Deulofeu is a delight to watch, and to an extent that also includes the entire team as individuals. There are a lot of players in this Watford side that can pull off moments of magic, be it a splitting pass or a tricky run. You've also absolutely got to respect a manager who casually pulls out a 4-2-2-2 like his team is a classic Brazil side. Watford also properly commit to a proper colour scheme and motif but refuse to restrict themselves to boring features like 'only stripes' or the like, which thematically I absolutely appreciate given the ongoing plague of boring strips in football. Isaac Success has a cracking name. Why to dislike them: Watford fans, lemme be honest, you lot have some problems. First on the list is probably that weird way you're trying to start rivalries with other fanbases because nobody cares about your team. I've seen some Watford fans sniping at Everton of all clubs, which, let's be honest, would result in the worst-named rivalry of all time. You just know that the press would make it the Z-cars derby. There's also the way you all seem to have 'ackshuyally I think you'll find it was only affray' bound to a macro. And then there was the reaction to the FA Cup final, in which the absolutely embarrassing capitulation the team displayed on the pitch was glossed over by that most shithouse of obfuscations: "our fans outsung theirs!". Come on now. You can do better. I believe in you, Watford fans. Also of note is the ongoing delusion by some members of the media that Watford is somehow in London, which isn't their fault but somehow still irritates. Speaking of the media, Troy Deeney's also a shit cunt who you absolutely know is lining himself up for a post-playing media career as 'the controversial one' on a panel of pundits. Summary: Watford look like they're in a great place for the foreseeable future, but there's a very definite glass ceiling on the midtable of the Premier League. Their ambition in that regard will be to make it into Europe, but that's as unlikely to manifest consistently as it is for anyone outside of the top six. If you look downwards rather than up, it also seems unlikely for Watford to really be at a risk of relegation given the strength of their side. Much more likely would be a pop at domestic silverware, and Gracia seems to be willing to commit to a deep cup run once more. Whilst cups are by nature unbalanced and risky, a team that's anchored in midtable is often one of the better bets for getting to the final given their ability to play first teamers without risk of losing too much on weekends. Expect Watford to go for it again as they bounce around somewhere between 13th and 8th.
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