Positions: $RSI 30 03/19 30C
Proof: https://imgur.com/a/swCCMjz
​
*This post is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice.*
​
TLDR: Rush Street Interactive ($RSI) is the #1 nationwide online casino company and the #3 or #4 sports book depending on the state. Short selling, unwarranted institutional wariness of share dilution and the general market focus on sports book instead of online casino has left $RSI grossly undervalued. A massive blow out at Q4 earnings will result in analyst upgrades and a rapid repricing by market makers and institutions seeking exposure to the emerging sector.
​
**Overview**
"Sports book is really just kind of a warm up in a lot of ways for an online casino where the real money is made" - Niccolo De Masi, CEO dMY technologies
​
Rush Street Interactive ($RSI) operates the BetRivers.com online casino and sports book. They are now fully licensed and operating in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. They own and operate a casino in New York and already have a New York license making them well positioned for liberalization there. They merged with a dMY Technology Group SPAC on Dec. 31st 2020 with 240 million on the balance sheet to spend on growth.
The online casino business is fundamentally more profitable than sports betting because the average value of a casino player is estimated at $600 while a sports book player could be as little as $20. Estimates put the online casino market at DOUBLE the size of the online sports book market and the online casino industry is really just getting started as more states liberalize.
$RSI is expert at new market entry; they have been first to market in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, and Colorado and even when they aren't first they are capable of capturing market share in competitive markets such as New Jersey. They also have products which women play which accounts for at least half of the market in online casino. The female market is one that the pure sports book plays miss out on.
Also for some fucking reason they operate a casino and sports book in Colombia (rushbet.co) and may make large expansions into other parts of south America as legalization continues. This means they have the expertise necessary for global expansion in the future although the states remains their primary focus and growth driver.
​
**The Financials and Strategy**
Unlike other companies in the space Rush Street is already profitable in 2020 and has a strong focus on Return On Invested Capital (ROIC). Q3 gross revenue was $71.9 Million. Q4 revenue is going to be a blow out. Combing through state gambling revenue data and breaking that down by market share my estimate is that Q4 revenue could be as high as $120 Million.
Paired with this blow out will be a **guidance raise to $500 Million for 2021**, which is 2/3 of DraftKings 2021 guidance of $750M.
https://imgur.com/a/xkfcayC
​
What is striking when compared to $DKNG is that their advertising spend was only a quarter of revenue in Q3 while $DKNG spent 155% of their revenue. This will change as they begin to focus on growth, but it shows they are very good at getting return on ad spend. This company should actually be valued close to $DKNG based on growth potential once guidance is raised.
https://imgur.com/a/RQQXtGg
​
Their focus on attracting **female gamers** is also important to their long term growth potential. The sports book plays with cross sells to casino such as $DKNG will not be able to grow through the female demographic in the same way. **This cannot be understated** as one of the major strategic advantages of $RSI.
https://imgur.com/a/xzJj26n
​
As I said before I expect their trend of rapid growth to continue for Q4 earnings, certainly going to be a blow out based on looking at state gambling revenue numbers. My estimate is that their revenue will be around 110M for Q4. I also expect guidance to be raised to 500M for 2021 due to strong performance in existing markets and the recently opened Michigan market as well as their sports book launch in Virginia.
https://imgur.com/a/ckTqHhh
​
**Short sellers have entered the chat**
The short interest on $RSI sits at 5.08 M shares as of 01/14/21 representing a 30% increase. Now why would a company already valued at 2.8 Billion and with a comparative valuation of 8-10 Billion compared with $DKNG and $PENN be so heavily shorted at such a low market cap? My conclusion is that an institution with 10s of millions to throw at shorting this stock wants to take advantage of fear of share dilution from warrant calling or to establish a better entry prior to earnings.
​
**Commander in GILF Cathie Wood is Bullish on the sector**
On Feb. 2nd ARK disclosed that they had purchased 620,300 shares of $DKNG. This is extremely bullish for the sector. I am highly confident that after Q4 earnings ARK will be purchasing shares in $RSI as well due its strategic advantages relative to $DKNG and exposure to the female demographic. For such a small market cap company this will be a major catalyst.
​
**Institutions are bullish**
Fidelity has increased their holdings to 14% as of today: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001793659/8f10b0d8-a3d2-447c-bc75-87587d0a4670.pdf
Alliance Bernstein holds a 6% position reported today: http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001793659/e883778d-e759-4a85-91c1-3242ed110720.pdf
​
**Final notes**
Jerome "The Bus" Bettis, Steelers legend and hall of fame running back, is their brand ambassador... This company knows their target audience and how to appeal to them, likely more 'classic' ambassadors to come to attract even more boomer and Gen X degenerates. Keep in mind these are the gamblers with big money to spend, the average age of an online casino gambler is 42.
This stock has been grossly underpriced due to short selling. The terms of the SPAC deal were not unfavorable and all the insiders held their shares through the merger banking on growth in the market - **management owns 77% of the company**. This is a true value play on a well managed company in an emerging industry with a market size in the hundreds of billions. I plan to hold shares long term.
​
I will post a part 2 breaking down their latest S-1 filing and Q4 revenue by state when they release their Q4 earnings date.
​
Do your own research.
References:
https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sports-betting/revenue/
https://fintel.io/doc/sec-rush-street-interactive-inc-ex991-2021-january-05-18632-947
https://s26.q4cdn.com/794539746/files/doc_presentations/2020/RSI-Investor-Presentation-15-Oct-2020.pdf
https://ir.rushstreetinteractive.com/news/news-details/2020/RUSH-STREET-INTERACTIVE-ANNOUNCES-THIRD-QUARTER-2020-RESULTS-AND-RAISES-FULL-YEAR-GUIDANCE/default.aspx
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQWEhWuPmzU
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/draftkings-surges-as-stake-bought-by-ark-next-generation
​
Positions: $RSI 30 03/19 30C
I will be adding 3/19 25cs each week until earnings.
Exit strategy: "What's an exit strategy?" - u/deepfuckingvalue

Positions: $RSI 03/19 30C
Proof: https://imgur.com/a/swCCMjz
This post is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice.
TLDR: Rush Street Interactive ($RSI) is the #1 nationwide online casino company and the #3 or #4 sports book depending on the state. Short selling, unwarranted institutional wariness of share dilution and the general market focus on sports book instead of online casino has left $RSI grossly undervalued. A massive blow out at Q4 earnings will result in analyst upgrades and a rapid repricing by market makers and institutions seeking exposure to the emerging sector.
Overview
"Sports book is really just kind of a warm up in a lot of ways for an online casino where the real money is made" - Niccolo De Masi, CEO dMY technologies
Rush Street Interactive ($RSI) operates the BetRivers.com online casino and sports book. They are now fully licensed and operating in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. They own and operate a casino in New York and already have a New York license making them well positioned for liberalization there. They merged with a dMY Technology Group SPAC on Dec. 31st 2020 with 240 million on the balance sheet to spend on growth.
The online casino business is fundamentally more profitable than sports betting because the average value of a casino player is estimated at $600 while a sports book player could be as little as $20. Estimates put the online casino market at DOUBLE the size of the online sports book market and the online casino industry is really just getting started as more states liberalize.
$RSI is expert at new market entry; they have been first to market in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, and Colorado and even when they aren't first they are capable of capturing market share in competitive markets such as New Jersey. They also have products which women play which accounts for at least half of the market in online casino. The female market is one that the pure sports book plays miss out on.
Also for some fucking reason they operate a casino and sports book in Colombia (rushbet.co) and may make large expansions into other parts of south America as legalization continues. This means they have the expertise necessary for global expansion in the future although the states remains their primary focus and growth driver.
The Financials and Strategy
Unlike other companies in the space Rush Street is already profitable in 2020 and has a strong focus on Return On Invested Capital (ROIC). Q3 gross revenue was $71.9 Million. Q4 revenue is going to be a blow out. Combing through state gambling revenue data and breaking that down by market share my estimate is that Q4 revenue could be as high as $120 Million.
Paired with this blow out will be a **guidance raise to $500 Million for 2021**, which is 2/3 of DraftKings 2021 guidance of $750M.
https://imgur.com/a/xkfcayC
What is striking when compared to $DKNG is that their advertising spend was only a quarter of revenue in Q3 while $DKNG spent 155% of their revenue. This will change as they begin to focus on growth, but it shows they are very good at getting return on ad spend. This company should actually be valued close to $DKNG based on growth potential once guidance is raised.
https://imgur.com/a/RQQXtGg
Their focus on attracting **female gamers** is also important to their long term growth potential. The sports book plays with cross sells to casino such as $DKNG will not be able to grow through the female demographic in the same way. **This cannot be understated** as one of the major strategic advantages of $RSI.
https://imgur.com/a/xzJj26n
As I said before I expect their trend of rapid growth to continue for Q4 earnings, certainly going to be a blow out based on looking at state gambling revenue numbers. My estimate is that their revenue will be around 110M for Q4. I also expect guidance to be raised to 500M for 2021 due to strong performance in existing markets and the recently opened Michigan market as well as their sports book launch in Virginia.
https://imgur.com/a/ckTqHhh
Short sellers have entered the chat
The short interest on $RSI sits at 5.08 M shares as of 01/14/21 representing a 30% increase. Now why would a company already valued at 2.8 Billion and with a comparative valuation of 8-10 Billion compared with $DKNG and $PENN be so heavily shorted at such a low market cap? My conclusion is that an institution with 10s of millions to throw at shorting this stock wants to take advantage of fear of share dilution from warrant calling or to establish a better entry prior to earnings.
Cathie Wood is Bullish on the sector
On Feb. 2nd ARK disclosed that they had purchased 620,300 shares of $DKNG. This is extremely bullish for the sector. I am highly confident that after Q4 earnings ARK will be purchasing shares in $RSI as well due its strategic advantages relative to $DKNG and exposure to the female demographic. For such a small market cap company this will be a major catalyst.
Final notes
Jerome "The Bus" Bettis, Steelers legend and hall of fame running back, is their brand ambassador... This company knows their target audience and how to appeal to them, likely more 'classic' ambassadors to come to attract even more boomer and Gen X degenerates. Keep in mind these are the gamblers with big money to spend, the average age of an online casino gambler is 42.
This stock has been grossly underpriced due to short selling. The terms of the SPAC deal were not unfavorable and all the insiders held their shares through the merger banking on growth in the market - **management owns 77% of the company**. This is a true value play on a well managed company in an emerging industry with a market size in the hundreds of billions. I plan to hold shares long term.
I will post a part 2 breaking down their latest S-1 filing and Q4 revenue by state when they release their Q4 earnings date.
Do your own research.
References:
https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sports-betting/revenue/
https://fintel.io/doc/sec-rush-street-interactive-inc-ex991-2021-january-05-18632-947
https://s26.q4cdn.com/794539746/files/doc_presentations/2020/RSI-Investor-Presentation-15-Oct-2020.pdf
https://ir.rushstreetinteractive.com/news/news-details/2020/RUSH-STREET-INTERACTIVE-ANNOUNCES-THIRD-QUARTER-2020-RESULTS-AND-RAISES-FULL-YEAR-GUIDANCE/default.aspx
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQWEhWuPmzU
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/draftkings-surges-as-stake-bought-by-ark-next-generation
Positions: $RSI 03/19 30C
I will be adding 3/19 25cs each week until earnings.
Exit strategy: "What's an exit strategy?" - u/deepfuckingvalue
Forgot to add: http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001793659/8f10b0d8-a3d2-447c-bc75-87587d0a4670.pdf Fidelity just doubled their position to almost 15%

THANK YOU MODS FOR LETTING THIS THROUGH!
Please click HERE for the PDF version if you would like to download the dd.
(credit: research compiled by IG:@wydstockbros)
To get things started, I'm not a financial advisor, I'm not a bot, and this one goes out to you, Chamath.
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tl;dr
AMC is the global leader in a $17 billion dollar industry that’s been beaten senseless to the ground with so much room to run. After pioneering deals with streaming services, buying out their competition, and upgrading their facilities worldwide, 80% short interest is highly inappropriate for its TRUE fundamental value — $69.69 a share.
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀$AMC TO $69.69🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀$AMC TO THE MOON🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
---
"I'm questioning whether they[WSB] are actually doing the research when it comes to things like GameStop and AMC ..." - clueless CNBC dude.
I fuckin miss movies. And when I say movies, I mean the whole damn experience. I wanna buy my $15 popcorn, pour an ungodly amount of butter and jalapenos on that shit and munch in a recliner seat watching in laser 4k quality. I like this company. I like this stock.
For the past few days, I've been scouring Google for news articles and company data. I've also been trying to find some detailed DD in here but they’ve all been pretty limp-dick when it came to AMC. And most of the news articles I've read were surface-level AT BEST with a grim outlook based on first-glance analysis. Guess these analysts are just too damn lazy to dig deep.
Because when we dive into these issues, we can easily see that the theater giant may not be in as bad a situation as the media/analysts are claiming.
In fact, I believe that AMC is absolutely misunderstood, overlooked, and undervalued.
Here is why I am more confident than ever that $AMC will not only reach $30 but is in the perfect setup to see ATHs and WELL ABOVE.

I. Ugly Start, Beautiful Setup

Chances are if you are currently holding a significant position in $AMC, then most likely you've already read up on the company and its current standing in the cinema industry. You've probably read about how the corporation has nearly $5 billion dollars worth of debt with many of its locations still closed as the pandemic remains a global issue. You may have realized that new movies haven't been coming out. But more than that, you're seeing that movies are just being released on streaming platforms anyway. You might be concerned for AMC, or even the industry as a whole.
All of these concerns are very valid and based on real uncertainty, but let's break down each of these points and see if they’re as bad as analysts claim.

II. A Discussion on Debt

Media outlets keep honing in on this debt like it’s an ugly scar of the corporation. But what we need to focus on is why that debt came to be, how the money was spent, and how this debt was a strategic play in order to cement AMC into the new era of cinema-streaming.
We can categorize the money used into four parts:

• New equipment and amenities
• Lease payments
• Maintenance costs (utilities, wages, etc.)
• Expansion (buying out the competition)

Pay close attention to the last category because this one is important. Over the past five years, AMC has been acquiring smaller theater companies like Odeon. After buying out these companies, AMC then had to suit its "new locations" with the standard luxury amenities AMC is known for. This makes for a significant bulk of their debt totaling over $3 billion in just acquisitions. This was the investment that helped solidify AMCs spot as the world's largest cinema chain.
On the topic of maintenance costs, AMC managed to raise enough money to get through 2021. With ongoing news of vaccines, we can hope their efficacy leads to a speedy reopening near mid-late 2021. But when the economy does reopen—and AMC is back at full operation—what will it look like?

III. The Future of AMC

There's an elephant here.. right in this very room. Yes, streaming and cinema have had some serious beef in the past. In fact, some cinema chains are having tensions with streaming to this day. But what has AMC done in regards to streaming? They were the first to settle deals in order to partner up and take part in streaming revenue.
Yup, you read that right. AMC is both having their cake and eating it too.
Why would motion picture companies do this? Why not just end the cinema industry? To put simply, analysts are deeply underestimating the value of the "cinema experience". Just as I mentioned in the intro, I miss the cinemas. But I am definitely not alone. But let's not talk about me and the hypothetical "people'', instead let's talk about research studies.
In a 3-year study done in Korea, researchers found that shortening the window of cinema exclusivity and releasing movies on streaming early did not have a significant effect on ticket sales. And though this is a limited study done outside of the US, remember that AMC is a global corporation and these results have a hopeful outlook for the future relationship of cinema-streaming for AMC worldwide.
"But wait, you still haven't mentioned what streaming gets out of this?"
It's not what streaming "gets out of this" but rather what these motion picture companies maintain in keeping a healthy relationship with cinemas. During the peak heat of the movie theater-streaming feud, AMC halted the showing of Trolls and vowed to never show a Universal Pictures film in its theaters again if they were to continue releasing their films on streaming platforms without a proper cinema-exclusivity window. But today, we can see that the tensions have fallen and both motion picture companies and AMC have found a way to mutually benefit each other.
Now besides streaming, AMC has been investing in luxury amenities as seen by their chairs, 4K laser projectors, MERV air filtration, and ultra-surround sound speakers. With so many locations and so many amenities, they are offering full theater rentals with high demand during the pandemic. AMC has further cultivated their century-old movie experience into modern times. And this pandemic didn’t just change their amenities.
They had to learn how to cut costs and have more efficient operations in order to survive. This only spells good news for when they emerge with better operations, more money to spend, and higher valuations. So that begs the question, how high can the company's share price go realistically?

IV. Valuation

First, let's look at the Movie Theater industry as a whole in comparison to a few other popular entertainment industries:
Movie Theater US Market Size $17.1 billion
Casinos US Market Size $15.7 billion
Amusement Parks US Market Size $14 billion
Music Label Music Production US Market Size $9.4 billion
Music Publishing US Market Size $7 billion
In the world of entertainment, cinema is a very lucrative business.
And, again, who is the largest movie theater chain in the world? Yup, AMC.
Clueless CNBC dude mentioned that we retail traders don't trade with a fundamental reason but is there a fundamental reason in shorting a $17 billion dollar industry GLOBAL leader down to its grave? Does AMC deserve to die? I surely don't think so.
Now I won't touch upon squeezes in this since I'm sure many of you folk have already read/heard enough about them, but I will leave this quick intuitive article about it. And yes, these shorts can and will be squoze once we have faith in our upper valuations and investors(we) begin buying again.
And buy again we will. As many users flee limp-dick Robinhood and join one of the real brokerages, their positions/funds will be settled and ready to trade come next week. Where do you think these angry RH refugees will be putting their investments? That's right, exactly into the positions that RH stopped them from buying last week: which includes $AMC.
If you were part of the RH user base and your plays were affected by the blatant market manipulation, it's not only "not too late", but I believe it is an opportune time to BUY.
How high can it go then? When will I know it's too late to take a position?
So when we talk about valuation, many people fear the uncertainty of a stock rising far past its current value. Well, I think Chamath Palihapitiya said it best:
"Everybody that bought that stock is also underwriting how they want to own it."
In our current price-action environment, it's not too ridiculous to see how we are forming the foundations for AMC to continue rising beyond ATHs. We are already hitting nearly $16 on the day and rallying +53% while enduring heavy trade restrictions. Who's to say that this passion cannot continue? Now I’m no expert and can’t tell you how high this can go, but I am personally eyeing $69.69 as a target.
With so many current factors at play including hype, short covers, and ITM options having to be exercised, this is actually the BEST entrance to manifest its ATH valuation and chart some never before seen territory in its price action. It's like the manifest destiny of stock valuation. In fact, we may never see this opportunity for AMC again if we don't act now and solidify its value upward.
At the end of the day, prices are what the buyers/sellers settle upon so WE can pioneer that value if we damn well please. This is what a free market is all about.
Will there be people that disagree with this?
Sure.
Will people continue to short AMC as it goes up?
Absolutely.
Do I think that AMC being shorted 80% and rising is fair?
Really? See section III.
But institutions are selling off! Like Silver Lake liquidating their 44m shares.
Yes, then the next day $AMC dipped to $7.50 and has since recovered… with AMC $600m less in debt.
We all know who is shorting AMC, and I am sick of these hedge funds who think they, alone, can decide whether or not a company is worth a damn.

V. Conclusion - Resurgence

We are at the cusp of AMCs resurgence. Because most of us have been kept from participating in social activities, we can better understand that the public is yearning for a sense of normalcy. Sure we've gone pretty far with just watching movies on our TVs or computers through the pandemic, but that doesn't scratch the itch for many folk.
What you're investing into when you invest in AMC is the entire experience in tandem with its new streaming deals. And having been beaten so low—while still holding such great fundamental prospects— its share price is ready to blow up.
In the future when “The Deep Squeeze” is turned into a movie, we’ll be a part of history.
And you’re going to want to see it on the big screen.
--
Position: $50k in calls and shares
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀$AMC TO $69.69🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀$AMC TO THE MOON🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price. Check out my DD below:
​
Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in
· For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores)
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
Previous DD: Herman Miller

Your 14-minute Thursday report in 3497 words. Part 1.

anti-corruption: Defense Ministry official busted with bribery & tampering with draft during war

NSS report says: a Colonel, who had oversight over subdivisions, received a ֏975K bribe from a conscript to transfer him to another location on Sep-13-2020. Part of the bribe was transferred to his online gambling account.
When the war began, a draft was declared and recruits began training at a location in Armenia. The Colonel took a ֏1.2M bribe from a soldier in exchange for not sending him to the front lines.
During the winter draft, the Colonel took a ֏5.2M bribe from another conscript and used his connections to send him to the desired service location. A similar ֏1M bribe was requested on January 6th from another recruit.
The Colonel took another ֏1.4M bribe to help promote a conscript and allow him to work at a hospital instead of regular service.
On October 22nd, during the war, the Colonel decided to help a friend move from bordering Khndzoresk (Syunik) hospital back to Yerevan. As a result, the clinic became understaffed and couldn't fulfill its duties. Moreover, the Colonel then helped the same friend not to be deployed on Syunik borders as a soldier and instead to handle tasks in the rear, on October 26th, in exchange for a ֏300K bribe.
On October 13th, during the war, the Colonel and his accomplices wanted to help a soldier to leave Artsakh. When they learned that the latter was already on the "deserted" list, they took steps to remove him from the list.
Then, he learned that his friends' sons received a draft notice, and use his connections to remove them from the draft list.
After the war, on Dec-13, a friend asked the Colonel to make sure that his son, who was serving in Lusakert, wasn't sent to the front lines. The Colonel contacted the Lusakert facility but learned that the soldier was not among those who were supposed to be sent to the front lines. Nonetheless, the Colonel decided to defraud his friend by claiming that "he took care of it", and received a ֏200K bribe.
The colonel and over a dozen others were arrested. Illegal weapons were found under their possession. The investigation continues to expose other possible suspects.
https://youtu.be/ifo13WJLpsU
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042334.html

bill: harsher punishment for treason, spying, espionage

BHK MPs drafted a bill to increase punishment for traitors, spies, passing of state secrets. They want to raise the maximum punishment from 15 years to 20-life. The authors explained the move by citing many media reports about alleged "treason" incidents.
The bill was discussed at a relevant Parliamentary committee. The chairman QP MP Vladimir said he supports life imprisonment as the minimum punishment. However, during the discussion, they agreed to settle on 15-20 years plus property confiscation, or a life sentence.
The committee found the espionage punishment too harsh and asked the bill author to reduce it from 15 to 12 years. The BHK author agreed.
The bill was approved unanimously and will be debated/voted on the Parliament floor later.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042354.html

Jalal is back with another position

The wounded ex-Artsakh army commander Jalal Harutyunyan will serve as the Republic of Armenia's Defense Ministry's Head of the Military Control Service. He will replace General Movses Mosi Hakobyan who quit on November 18th.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042353.html

Russian-Turkish ceasefire monitoring group begins operations

Russian troops are using ORLAN-10 and FORPOST drones to monitor Am-AZ troop locations and movements.
https://youtu.be/ToSLqUDj6OE
https://factor.am/335089.html

ECHR received Armenia's complaint against Azerbaijan regarding 228 POWs / Azeris counter-claim for 13 POWs

Armenian families submitted a petition to ECHR to require Azerbaijan to provide information regarding 228 individuals. Azeris want to know data about 13 people.
(From the language it is unclear to me whether the petition is for confirmed POWs, or it also includes families of missing soldiers who want to know whether their relatives are POWs. Likely the former.)
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042406.html

Red Cross visited 4 Armenian POWs in Azerbaijan

They were able to establish contact with families.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042428.html

Russia expects UNESCO to soon visit Armenian monuments that went under Azeri control

https://factor.am/335437.html

Russia removed tomato import ban on 13 Armenian firms

Russian regulator will allow 13 Armenian sellers to export tomato and pepper to Russia again after earlier finding a food virus in them. A similar ban was implemented against Azeri tomatoes.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042433.html

US Congressman demands an explanation from the US ambassador to Azerbaijan over "congratulatory" statement

Rep. Bred Sherman wants to know why the US ambassador to Azerbaijan Lee Litzenberger congratulated Azerbaijan's Economy Minister with "de-occupying territories and US's willingness to aid Azerbaijan with rebuilding those territories". He reminded the US officials that the US is a member of the Minsk Group and should take steps to ensure Artsakh's safety and prevention of a new war.
Bred Sherman praised Biden's appointee Anthony Blinken for stating that the US will review its military assistance to Azerbaijan after the latest war in Artsakh.
Artsakh MFA yesterday released a statement urging countries, officials, and organizations to refrain from such "congratulatory" statements.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042370.html

de-occupy Hadrut NGO

... aims to help 13,500 Hadrut residents who lost their homes during the war. It was founded during the war by activists who held protests in front of various embassies. In the early days, they received aid from President Sarkissian's office. The latter gave shelter to 25 families.
Today the NGO aims to help refugees with employment, while simultaneously lobbying for Minsk Group to de-occupy Hadrut so residents can return. "I hope that one day our NGO will shut down because Hadrut is no longer occupied," said co-founder Meri Davtyan.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042286.html

govt session: financial aid for Syunik border villagers

The government approved a new aid package for residents of Syunik's Shurnukh and Vorotan villagers. Those who lost their homes will qualify for the same aid package as Artsakh refugees: one-time ֏300K payment plus monthly ֏65K payments for 6 months. There is another pending aid package to build new houses for them.
Context: Two dozen houses in Vorotan and Shurnukh went under Azeri control because they were built on the Azeri side of the internationally-recognized borders.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042362.html

bill: disability ranking to be replaced with degrees of functionality impairment

The government approved a bill, yet to be approved by Parliament, to reform the disability system. The disability assessment process will analyze the person's level of functional impairment while taking into account surrounding conditions.
"Today, the system is run under a 1993 law that does not do a comprehensive assessment of the surrounding environment, person's ability to function in public life," says the govt.
The draft bill will repeal the 1-3 Categories and Disabled Child category. A person's functionality impairment degrees will be light, medium, heavy, or deep. Disability will no longer be considered a permanent health problem. The assessment will be based not only on the factor of health problems but also on the environmental factors of the person's activity and participation in public life.
Healthcare and Social Ministries, NGOs, the UN, and the EU worked together to create and test an assessment methodology.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042365.html
Tags: #DisabilityLaw #disabled

bill: require unknown Telegram/Facebook media channel owners identified before "linking" by mass media

QP MPs want to require social media channel operators identified before a "mainstream media" can link to them. It doesn't restrict citing "anonymous sources", however. It also requires outlets to disclose sources of revenues for transparency. Read yesterday's news for context and arguments in favor or against it.. The debate continued today.
QP MP Arthur: For example, a legitimate news organization with an editorial staff of 30 people generates information, holds interviews, etc., while a Telegram channel that we do not know where it is managed from and by whom, begins to disseminate sensationalized information and over time becomes more "legitimate" than real media outlets because media outlets "advertised" them.
This is also a national security risk because it is very possible that such sources are being operated by an adversary country to spread instability and an atmosphere of fear in the country. //
The co-author criticized the critics who "claimed that the bill intends to ban anonymous sources. That's not true. This also won't affect the protection of journalists' source secrecy."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042357.html
If you're interested in more debates:
https://youtu.be/MTHwRa4YjgY , https://youtu.be/ThDNVwZYEp8 , https://youtu.be/S6C_NocS9N0 , https://youtu.be/3_-i2Z23ubI , https://youtu.be/wiPnmfeLNJ8
Tags: #MediaLaw #TelegramLaw #FreeSpeech

rumors and rebuttals: Artsakh army isn't being dissolved

Serj's won-in-law Mishik earlier circulated rumors that were denied by state officials. Today, Kocharyan-ally Vitali Balasanyan, who serves as Artsakh's Security Council chief, confirmed that the army isn't "disintegrating." After the restructuring process, there will be subdivisions with professional contractors, he said.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042344.html

rumors and rebuttals: Azeri flag won't fly over Artsakh govt buildings

Vitalik Balasanyan also denied rumors about Azeri flags being installed on Artsakh govt buildings in Stepanakert.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042344.html

rumors and rebuttals: Azeri families won't resettle in Stenapakert / none are shopping in market

Vitalik Balasanyan said there are false rumors about two districts in Stepanakert being populated by Azeris, and Azeris allegedly freely shopping in Stepanakert market.
"Dear citizens of Artsakh, on behalf of the authorities of the Artsakh Republic, I assure you that despite the irreparable losses inflicted on us as a result of the war, the state is always committed to fulfilling its responsibilities to ensure the security and normal life of the population. Accordingly, I urge you not to pay attention to the false news. Everything is being done to create and expand the necessary conditions for a dignified life of the people of Artsakh."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042344.html

rumors and rebuttals: Artsakh envoy won't stop operating in Russia

The Permanent Representation of the Artsakh Republic in Russia will not be terminated, said the Artsakh govt in response to rumors.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042367.html

rumors and rebuttals: no single currency in EAEU trade bloc

EAEU would like to inform you that you've been misled about alleged plans to establish a single currency among member-states.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042427.html

location "Hollywood, Yerevan, Armenia"

There is a district called Hollywood in Yerevan, Armenia. Gamblers were caught running an underground casino in there. This is the second such bust in the past few months. The police say ֏5.5B in damages was done to the state.
https://youtu.be/sp0Sb--e_ms?t=60
https://factor.am/335320.html

anti-corruption: prosecutors charge education officials with ֏1.2B auction shenanigans

Prosecutors said: State Oversight Committee (SOC) audited the "National Center for Educational Technology" government-affiliated agency's finances between 2013-2020. Every year, the agency submitted a report on the work done by them towards servicing the education system. The bill was ֏700M annually.
It was revealed that between 2012-2015, they granted an auction-based contract to the same company. It received a combined ֏2.8B in funding. The law requires the auction-holding officials to examine the market and take other steps before the auction. They failed to do so.
Later, during 2017-2019, the same company was selected to do the job, but this time it was only paid ֏300-400M annually, far lower than during the previous years.
֏1.2B in damages was done to the state. A felony case is launched.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042389.html

re: Armenia's $750M eurobond sale / lowest % in history / $3B demand by investors / economy news

Read yesterday's news for context.
Pashinyan: The issuance of $750M eurobonds is a strong positive signal for the start of the economic year. The issuance was done under the most favorable conditions in the history of our republic, with the lowest 3.8% percentage rate. Our previous record was in 2019 at 4.2%. The demand was for $3B but we decided to issue only $0.750B.
First, it provides a guarantee of macroeconomic stability. Second, this is the first serious signal of overcoming the post-war economic shock, which shows that international investors have confidence in the economic future of Armenia and the policy pursued by the government. //
Economy Minister Janjughazyan: this was part of our long-term plan and we had planned to do it while drafting the 2021 budget. We planned to issue fewer bonds but decided to add $250M because of favorable terms. We plan to use that extra cash towards the stabilization deposit, as a safety pad, to be used throughout the year if necessary.
As long as our budget has a deficit we will have to borrow. But this is only part of the story; the country's overall debt burden is calculated based on various indicators. So far Armenia has been rated as a country with a lower debt burden.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042351.html, https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042352.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042363.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042393.html

how many people did leave and arrive after reopening air traffic with Russia?

The governments of Armenia and Russian worked on an "app" to allow mutual travel after taking a test. By February 15th, there will be 4-route flights in 2 directions. There were several flights in the past few days.
3900 left and 3400 arrived. 1423 Armenian citizens left and 1263 Armenian citizens arrived. "More people were willing to leave in December than today," noted Diaspora Committee chief Sinanyan.
"Some people flew to Russia but had to return due to a problem. This wasn't due to the COVID app implemented by us. Preliminary data shows that they went to Russia with a paper QP code which raised the suspicion of Russian authorities. We will work with them to resolve this," said Deputy PM Mher. (say what??)
"We need to better inform the public about the existence of this app. Restoring routine flights will help the tourism industry," said PM Pashinyan.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042358.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042383.html

Pashinyan about the suspended Amulsar gold mining project

He repeated his earlier position that "Decisions must be made that take into account Armenia's best interests."
"The mining industry plays a very important role in the development of Armenia's economy, including in the security context."
"We must make decisions to make investment programs acceptable for the Armenian public while taking into account interests of Republic of Armenia."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042368.html

COVID stats

1829 tested. 147 infected. 352 healed. 11 deaths. 4637 active.
"We're negotiating for vaccines via COVAX global initiative. Separately, we're negotiating with Russia for Sputnik-V. Vaccines should be available in March. It will be targeted at specific groups. It won't be mandatory," said Healthcare Minister Avanesyan.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042341.html , https://youtu.be/vXz3pHx1BlM?t=92

the consumer market price increase in the past 12 months

Armenia's consumer market inflation was +4.5% from January to January. Food +6.4%. Alcohol & tobacco +10.8%. Clothing +2.6%. Utilities +0.6%. Appliances +5.8%. Healthcare +5.6%. Transport +5.7%. Telecom +0.5%. Leisure & culture -0.8%. Education +2%. Dining +1.6%. Misc +3.5%.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042323.html

Parliament MP stops a citizen's suicide attempt

Someone tried to jump from Kievyan bridge. QP MP Gor Gevorgyan was nearby and stopped the attempt. The police took the distressed person to a station.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042329.html

psychological support will be provided to war participants and the public

Emergency Ministry says 15-30% of people have PTSD after the war. Today the government approved a plan to provide psychological aid to war participants and others. The target group includes families of missing people, POWs and their families, those who received disabilities, families of those who died, those who fought in the war, IDPs, civilians who were affected in any way. The program will work in Armenia and Artsakh.
The government will purchase services from experienced mental health service agencies.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042403.html

Armenia will grow industrial marijuana on mass industrial scale / incentive to boost land utilization

Hemp is a type of weed that contains less of the substance that makes you feel high. The government wants to grow industrial hemp on a mass scale to boost mood land utilization and revenues.
Pashinyan: this is going to open room for many speculations. It's important to present the project in detail so the public will have a full understanding of what is being done. Unfortunately, "hemp" is interpreted as something else, while in reality, it is a very important industrial raw material. The growing process has risks but there are oversight mechanisms that have been tested in many countries.
Deputy PM Avinyan: the US, Russia, and China have a great experience with industrial hemp production. The practice was examined by the Economy Ministry. We're talking about industrial production only. It will significantly activate agricultural land utilization. Today, 40% of lands are gone unused. This is part of our plan to boost the production of high-value agricultural products.
https://youtu.be/ssZgr2DR3DM?t=7
https://www.healthline.com/health/hemp-vs-marijuana#marijuana
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042372.html

Education Minister says the "controversial" parts of Church/History merger were "resolved"

Education Ministry wants to merge the school subjects "Armenian Church History" and "Armenian History". Critics said it will shrink the church-related materials too much, others called it treason, while others supported the decision, stating that it's all part of our history and having a separate class is inefficient.
Education Minister Dumanyan says he met colleagues at the National Academy of Sciences and they resolved the conflicts "that caused a noise earlier." He will reveal details soon.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042379.html , https://youtu.be/V0sC3dx-gzU

Major education reforms: "education alone will not solve all problems, but there is no problem that can be solved without an education"

... said PM Pashinyan during a govt session while discussing education reforms. Kids in 1-5 grades will no longer receive grades; tt will be pass or no pass (still needs Parliamentary approval). "There will be a criticism. How can you not grade? But this is a comprehensive program that emphasizes the student's needs and preferences," said Pashinyan.
"We need to pay attention to how the time is spent in schools and what skills are being taught in school hours. It will reflect in our society 15-20 years later. It will define whether we have a technological product or not.
What we were doing in 12 years (school length) can be done within 9 years, but a 9-year school isn't the solution. Instead of shortening the school, we're trying to fill the gap in a way to have a 50% higher efficiency by the end of the 12th year.
In developed countries, education starts not from school but from preschool. The lower the education entry age the more developed the countries are," said Pashinyan. (the govt has a plan to make sure 70% of kids attend preschools by 2023)
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042394.html

cancer stats in Armenia / annual rate / drops among children / fewer abandon treatment

world
9.6 million people die from cancer annually. 1/3rd is possible to prevent. Another part can be cured with the help of early detection.
Armenia
Cancer was the 2nd leading cause of death in 2020. It has increased in the past 10 years but at a small rate. Lung cancer is more common among men, and breast cancer among women.
First time diagnosis by year: 2018 - 8762, 2019 - 7908, 2020 - 7050.
Deaths by year: 2018 - 5199, 2019 - 5434. 2020 - unavailable. (55% men, 45% women)
The cancer rate went up by 1.5x compared to 1990. However, it declined by 2x among children under 14yo.
Fewer people abandon treatment. 3 years ago 53% of lung patients did so, today it's 40%. Breast cancer treatment abandonment went from 47% to 22%. (I translated the word բարձիթողության as "abandonment". Correct me if it refers to something else.)
Artsakh
The number of cancer cases has decreased in Artsakh: from 345 to 260 YoY.
prevention
Oncologist Safaryan says the early detection helps to avoid complications and save lives, even if it's the type of cancer that is known to reappear. There are many patients who defeat cancer. "Smokers should get a lung x-ray twice a year. Those working in chemical plants should get a frequent screening. Do not ignore symptoms and չգցել ականջի հետև. You can defeat it more easily when it's at 1-2 stages. It's a lot harder when it advances to 4."
Preventing cancer isn't easy. The causes of this disease are many. Genetics, bad habits, obesity, surrounding environment. A genetic test can reveal the likelihood of suffering from illness. Some women choose to undergo a mastectomy to prevent possible breast cancer in the future.
"I decided that if 1-in-100 is destined to be cured, I will be that one," said Ashkhen, a woman who recently defeated cancer.
More: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042291.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042364.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042405.html

cancer diagnosis, surgery, and radiotherapy are free

The treatment was made free recently. The Oncology Center urges the public to get screened as part of an early-detection initiative. The pilot program began in Vanadzor; 307 women were screened.
Cancer diagnosis, surgery, and radiotherapy are free, while the medication has a co-payment.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042423.html

today in history

2004: Mike Zuckerberg founded Facebook to steal your SSN
1949: Sri Lanka declares indpendence
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042309.html

president meets donor

Artsakh president Arayik met donor Alec Baghdasaryan and thanked him. "Only with the joint efforts of the Armenian people is it possible to quickly overcome the difficulties and to plan development programs." Alec plans more charity programs relating to education.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042326.html

donations to Artsakh & recovering soldiers

www.1000plus.am (recovering soldiers & their families)
www.HimnaDram.org (for Artsakh & Armenia)
www.ArmeniaFund.org (U.S. tax-deductible)

archive of older news

http://www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/Daily_Anti-Corruption_Reports

disclaimer

All the accused are considered innocent unless proven guilty in the court of law, even if they "sound" or "appear" guilty.

Hi all,
To celebrate the return of Undervalued to the Reddit community, I decided to put together a quick DD and post it on a stock that I have had my eye on for a little while. It's still a "work-in-progress" and I may potentially update it later on Reddit with more information or detail if I have time at some point in the future.
If you have any opinions, thoughts, or additional information, please share it. Positive. Negative. Neutral. All information is helpful and informative to the community. (I thought the feedback received from my first DD posted to this sub was quite helpful and I look forward to what you have to say.)
Thank you to u/BuyLowSellNever for turning the sub back on; allowing us to share and discuss ideas with the broader community in a thoughtful and respectful manner. Best wishes. - LA

Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

Albeit a week late, I want to share my 2021 portfolio for documentation purposes and for whoever is interested. I aimed to balance risk in this portfolio with some growth names and legacy plays. Down to brass tacks, I am putting my money in the highest quality companies (in my view) across a diverse set of industries I find attractive. Some of these names are overvalued in the short term. However, I have realized I am not in the business of beating Wall Street’s pricing, but would rather hold high-quality companies that I believe will grow faster that the market in the long term. In other words, I am totally fine paying a short-term premium for growth and quality. Below is a summary of the portfolio and big picture reasoning behind each investment. I'm definitely open to any feedback.

Company	Ticker	Entry Price	Exposure
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF	ARKG	$93.26	6.60%
CrowdStrike	CRWD	$211.82	11.78%
Disney	DIS	$181.18	10.53%
Enphase Energy	ENPH	$175.47	7.98%
Evolution Gaming Group	EVVTY	$101.02	12.77%
Facebook	FB	$273.16	11.05%
Redfin	RDFN	$68.63	10.41%
Teladoc	TDOC	$199.96	9.60%
Sea Ltd	SE	$199.05	14.09%
Waste Connections	WCN	$102.57	5.19%

ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (BATS: ARKG) - Invests in companies advancing genomics. The companies held in ARKG may develop, produce or enable: CRISPR, Targeted Therapeutics, Bioinformatics, Molecular Diagnostics, Stem Cells, Agricultural Biology.

• Innovative industry. Since 2003 the cost to sequence a human genome has dropped from nearly $3bn to less than $1,000. ARK believes that as costs continue to drop, genomic sequencing will become a standard of care in oncology. It will introduce more science into healthcare decision making, enable personalized medicine, and accelerate drug discovery. ARK estimates that genomic sequencing revenues will grow 43% at an annual rate, from $3.5bn last year to $21bn in 2024.
• Cathie Wood. She’s a beast stock picker. Out of all the ETFs she runs, her closest competitor trailed by 60%. Her worst ETF still doubled investors' money. Her strategy is to make investments into companies that she considers incredibly transformational and she has seen success doing it.

CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) - Cybersecurity technology company that provides endpoint security, threat intelligence, and cyber attack response services.

• Best in class technology. Remember about a week ago a bunch of Russian hackers breached SolarWinds? The same hackers also tried to hack CrowdSrike at the same time but were unsuccessful. I’ve wandered on to a bunch of cybersecurity forums, and the general consensus is CrowdStrike has developed the best cybersecurity solution by miles. CRWD is the undisputed leader in cybersecurity.
• “Pick-and-shovel” investment into the world’s increasing digitization. Even in the absence of COVID, cybersecurity remains a key component of the world’s increasing digitization as cyberthreats have been an ongoing issue from the onset of the internet. In the last decade we have seen a bunch of hacks where companies have exposed sensitive customer information. It seems companies are just starting to realize the importance of cybersecurity.

Disney (NYSE: DIS) - Worldwide entertainment company that you all are probably familiar with.

• Reopening trade. In 2019, parks generated 45% of total operating income for DIS. Full reopening and attendance in parks will be slow, but certainly benefit DIS when it happens. The company has been executing on several other segments in the meantime (i.e. streaming). It has proved competitive, increasing the margin of safety if parks take longer to reopen.
• Fast-growing streaming division. DIS has proved agile as it successfully launched a streaming service, Disney+, that has already gained 86mn+ subscribers which was the company’s original 5 year target. This is promising as it shows management can adapt to rapidly changing technology trends.

Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) - Designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.

• Shift to clean energy; ENPH emerging as market leader. Going into 2021, sentiments towards solar have been at an all time high. This trend is expected to continue, especially after the Georgia run-off results. Solar firms are expected to benefit from extended tax incentives on both the consumer and producer ends.
• Technological advantage. ENPH has developed the industry leading solution and is rapidly taking market share from its primary competitor, SolarEdge. Pricing reflects this, but it's expected to continue. Among key competitors, Enphase has been one of the lowest cost producers. Its low-cost structure is a major contributing factor to its improving margins.

Evolution Gaming Group (OTC: EVVTY) - Swedish company that develops, produces, markets and licenses integrated B2B live casino solutions for gaming operators.

• Early mover advantage. Evolution’s lack of competition enables it to rapidly grow in new markets and create a loyal customer base, with high switching costs. The company has effectively grown EBITA margins from 41.6% in 1Q18 to 64.8% in 3Q20. Margin expansion is expected to continue.
• Massive untapped markets. Europe is estimated to be around $2.5bn (EVVTY has 50% market share), Asian market is ~15x the size of Europe (150% YoY growth for EVVTY in Asia). North America’s market is ~$210mn, a 42% increase YoY, with NJ and PA the only states currently operating (NY looks promising). Management thinks the US will be the largest in the long-term.
• Undetected from Wall Street. Evolution has almost no analyst coverage in the US and very minimal coverage in Europe, presenting opportunity for additional growth as institutional money managers recognize this opportunity and draw attention to the stock. Additionally, Evolution has a founder-led management team that is highly aligned with shareholders (mgmt owns over 30% of the stock).

Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) - Enables people to connect through devices. It’s products include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and Oculus.

• Zuck. It’s not a question of who is the next Jobs/Bezos/Gates/Zuck, because Zuck is super young. He has a history of being able to execute: IG acquisition / transition from desktop to mobile / denying multiple acquisition opportunities in his twenties.
• Undervalued. FB is the cheapest among the FAANG stocks, yet has some of the highest growth rates. This is mainly because of its continuous political scandals. With Trump out of office, I think FB has a chance to stay out of trouble and start to realize higher multiples. The antitrust lawsuit is not a threat imo, it is actually an opportunity. If the govt forces FB to break up, we would get shares in the spin-offs, which would be valued at a higher multiple than FB. For example, if Instagram spun off from FB and traded at the same multiple as SNAP, Instagram’s market cap would be larger than FB’s.

Redfin Corporation (NASDAQ: RDFN) - Provides residential real estate brokerage services.

• Digitization of Real Estate (i.e. “iBuying”). Technology in RE is moving from being informational to transactional. Redfin’s iBuying service is dubbed “RedfinNow.” The service basically buys homes from sellers looking for a quick and convenient sale (close deals within 10-30 days). This segment isn’t profitable yet as it is just getting started, but promising as the management adapts to technology trends.
• Inter-US Migration and housing outlook. People are moving out of the cities because of COVID / trying to avoid taxes / etc. which increases demand for Redfin’s services. With interest rates extremely low (and no expectation for them to increase), homebuying demand should continue to grow.
• RDFN most attractively valued compared to Z and OPEN, with the most upside potential given its market cap ~$7bn. Some are predicting RDFN might start offering rental services as well. RDFN has the best LT margin potential.

Teladoc Health (NYSE: TDOC) - Provides virtual healthcare services on a B2B basis to its clients and provides services to consumers directly and through channel partners.

• Competitive positioning in industry ripe for disruption. Healthcare is a huge market yet to be significantly disrupted. COVID has accelerated this disruption. Providers who were once opposed to telemedicine now realize its benefits and several regulatory changes are promising for telemedicines growth potential. Medicare and other government-sponsored coverage is expected to include telemedicine benefits, increasing TDOC’s TAM.
• Livongo acquisition. From the consumer POV, this will increase access to healthcare at a lower cost. Teladoc will have access to a larger amount of data it can interpret to refine its services and monetization strategies.

Sea Ltd (NYSE: SE) - Digital entertainment, electronic commerce, and digital financial services. The Company operates three business segments: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMonkey. The Company’s digital entertainment business, Garena, is a global game developer and publisher with a presence in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Latin America. Garena provides access to mobile and personal computer online games. Shopee provides users with a shopping environment that is supported by integrated payment, logistics, fulfillment, and other value-added services. SeaMonkey business is a digital financial services provider. SeaMonkey offers e-wallet services, payment processing, credit related digital financial offerings, and other financial products.

• Diversified consumer internet company with market-leading position. Sea caters to Southeast Asia and Taiwan, providing its online gaming, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Shopee has overtaken competitors, it is widening its market share lead. ESports is a rapidly growing market (15.7% YoY to $1.1bn in 2020) and Sea is outpacing market growth.
• Pay for quality. The best companies keep going up for years in a row, and I think Sea is in the early stages of being classified as such a company. It’s worth $100bn but has effectively proved its ability to identify opportunities and expand business lines.
• Still early stages of developing its consumer banking business, so we get the security of a bigger, established company with upside for an additional, lucrative business line such as fintech.

Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN) - Waste services company that provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal and recycling services.

• Recession resilient; re-opening trade. The waste management industry is recession resilient, it will always be around.
• Non-hazardous waste collection. With a progressive government likely to push climate initiatives, recycling and non-hazardous waste collection are likely to benefit on the back end.
• WCN has a large moat; there isn’t much of a competitive threat the way the industry operates. Management’s strategy is to generally only spend what FCF is available. This enables the company to make acquisitions while handling its debt load. Great for stable growth.

​
P.S. I have two other accounts - one with about 40 growth stocks and another with about 10 big names / ETFs. However, this portfolio has the largest allocation for 2021. My first time trying a more concentrated approach.